At 11.oo am IST, 4th. June, "Phet" is digging itself into the Gulf of Oman, at 21.5N and 59.2E, and its rain periphery is in a semi circular arc around Oman. At 956mb and 90 Knots winds, it is a force to reckon with. Enough has been repeated about its anticipitated course, and its forecasted movement towards the North-East. As we have discussed, it is lagging behind the W.D.which would have originally steered it Northeast,away from Oman,but now is left to be guided by another low aloft.This time the "new" low is not as effective as the one which was earliar supposed to have steered it eastwards.
The original W.D, which was supposed to guide the cyclone,moved into India on Wednesday,and precipitated rain in the states of Kashmir and H.P. Snow was also reported from the higher reaches of both the states.
In H.P, the Kangra valley was lashed by heavy rain accompanied by high velocity of winds this morning. The higher reaches of the Dhauladhar mountain range experienced snowfall, giving relief to the residents from scorching heat as the temperature dropped considerably.
Another factor, i would think about again is a little delay in the arrival of the MJO. According to the forecasts, given on this link, the MJO wave, which will bring the Monsoon current to the west coast alongwith it, is now expected around 15th.June. Earlier it was estimated to be around 10th. June. I hope the estimate is correct, as all hopes on the fast revival of the Monsoon current, for all of India,depends on this MJO wave.
3 comments:
twitter #phet posts indicate eye of Phet sitting above Sur at present. But it is likely to make an exit today itself from Oman.
Look at this photo of Cyclone Phet by NASA Earth Observatory ......
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=44153
There were very heavy rains on June 8 and June 9 in 1991 (the highest rain event in June for Mumbai). Does anyone know what had triggered that? A low pressure?
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