Thursday, October 31, 2019

Posted 31st October ...Night

Severe Cyclone "Maha"

Date/Time: 31.10.19/1730 
Location:12.8/72.2 
Estimated Winds:100-110 gusting to 120 

Rare Study of 2 cyclones together in the Arabian Sea...Check the 850 winds and the 925 winds.
See and notice the Binary winds between the 2 systems.


 Now, observe the formation of the trough in the 200 hpa Jet Streams ( Normally Deciding Factor)) and contemplate the track.

 And Finally, the Estimated track as per HWRF..Feasible as it seems now

Maha is projected to turn NW after crossing the 13N line (approximately). 
Then, Mumbai will just miss the rainfall swath area. If however, the turn happens after 15/16N, Mumbai may get showers.


11 comments:

Unknown said...

Dear Rajesh,

The SWM has gone on beyond 5 months, the NEM is almost 10 days old but your energy level of analysis never diminishes. It still carries the same enthusiasm and intensity as the pre monsoon analysis almost half a year back.

Would not be surprised if you soon put up a report on likely 2020 SWM !!!

Suresh

Atul P Naik said...

Rajeshbhai, you've made it so simple to understand. Thank you very much!

Nimish Thaker said...

I think a re-curve scenario for CS Maha after Tuesday is now being discussed in some weather models. Re-curve towards Gujarat - Kutch area.

sset said...

Chennai has just received 50% of its rain - (Jan - Oct only 800 mm) as of now. NEM is very weak over northern TN. Easterlies are moving much lower latitudes only to feed AS.

sset said...

What change in climatology... NEM instead of giving cyclones to South East India is giving cyclones to Gujarat ????? This is Bad - every AS cyclone + WD tends to spoil NEM.

Saurabh said...

Hi SSET
For Chennai, Jan to October rain is normally around 83 cms. This year it is 81 cms.
The annual rainfall for Chennai is 138 cms and not 160 cms. In November and December Chennai normally receives 55 cms. In short we are right on track so far.

Good to see your area of concern go down from south india to south east india to TN and now to north TN. Lets hope in a month from now it disappears all together.
Regards
Saurabh

sset said...

Looks like dump of 500mm for GUJ / RAJ -> They are no longer dry states- becoming wetter every passing year -this is 3rd cyclone to hit GUJ/RAJ ... in fact Vayu gave 350mm rain in 24hrs to RAJ.

sset said...


The IMD has predicted that the Maha cyclone will intensify and turn into a very severe cyclone. IMD Director in Gujarat J Sarkar said that from November 6, the cyclone will re-curve towards the North East and may move towards Gujarat between the morning of November 6 and 7.

"We expect wind speed of 60-70 km/hr along the Gujarat coast on Nov 6 which may increase further," he said.

Abizer kachwala said...

Very heavy rains continuous since 3 pm ,still going on at around 8 pm in Nagothane..never expected this..so model dependence should be reduced..rajesh sir your forecast proved correct

Salim Ramani , Jabalpur said...

"Happy Diwali to All"

Rajesh sir

Thanks for continues knowledgeable updates .

Sir , what are your views about coming Winter season .
will it more delay by continues developing systems in sea ?



rajesh said...

Salim:
actual winters of North India will not be affected by these late Arabian Sea systems. The outlook for Wintery WDs is good. Of course, these systems from sea must end, and they will now. One system is headed towards Eat Coast next week.

Posted Monday 18th November : Unseasonal extra rainfall for some cities from cyclones Mid October-Mid November ----...