Sunday, October 13, 2019

Posted Sunday 13th October:

With the reversal of winds in the Peninsula region to Easterlies, the south West Monsoon has seen rapid withdrawal. 
The Estimated approximate withdrawal line as on 14th is shown in the imposed IMD image.




Though we see winds easterly upto 500 hpa, 1.we do not still see the required Westerlies in the 200 hpa jet streams...not till 23rd at least.

Hence, South West Monsoon withdraws more, but a bit hesitantly below Maharshtra (by a few days). 
A complete withdrawal will take another 4/5 days , and onset of  NEM thence.

2.We see another another upper Air trough forming around the 15N region inland. This may form around the 17th/18th of this Month. 
May bring post monsoon rains to Madhya Maharastra and Karnatak next weekend.

Due to the two reasons highlighted above, the initial progress of NEM in Tamil Nadu may be weak. 
Chennai may get some rains from Thursday, but may not really pick up above 15/20 mms/day till 22nd/23rd.

Mumbai Monsoon will withdraw from Tuesday 15th...resulting in warmer days around 34/35c. 

Pune also post Monsoon will see sunny days and a nip in the night, going to 17/18c next week.
Next weekend post monsoon showers a possibility.

5 comments:

Ashish Gupta said...

Sir, the intensity and duration of October heat in Mumbai and elsewhere varies from year to year. Are there any factors governing this as well. Do you have any predictions for October heat this year? Thanks

rajesh said...

Ashish: Mumbai gets the October heat as the Monsoon withdraws. The winds change from West to East. East winds for Mumbai causes a rise in day temperatures. Like you see from the wind chart put up, Mumbai has East winds now. Will lasy for at least a week. so hot days.
If we see a Western Disturbance in the last week. the winds may change to North or NW. Then the day temperature drops.

rajesh said...

We may see some post monsoon rains, which i will mention if it to happen.

Cumulus arjun said...

This “post monsoon” rains is a relatively new concept for maharashtra I think. Mostly after monsoon withdrawal the skies are crystal clear till June next year but even last year it happened in Mumbai. Let’s see whether it happens this year or not.

sset said...

Seems MAHA/GUJ is again going to grab NEM meant for parched TN/SAP. System like cyclone Vayu t give torrential rains to MAHA and GUJ. What is SWM withdrawl and NEM onset for TN???
AS is becoming hyperactive!

Posted Monday 18th November : Unseasonal extra rainfall for some cities from cyclones Mid October-Mid November ----...