With the reversal of winds in the Peninsula region to Easterlies, the south West Monsoon has seen rapid withdrawal.
The Estimated approximate withdrawal line as on 14th is shown in the imposed IMD image.
Though we see winds easterly upto 500 hpa, 1.we do not still see the required Westerlies in the 200 hpa jet streams...not till 23rd at least.
Hence, South West Monsoon withdraws more, but a bit hesitantly below Maharshtra (by a few days).
A complete withdrawal will take another 4/5 days , and onset of NEM thence.
2.We see another another upper Air trough forming around the 15N region inland. This may form around the 17th/18th of this Month.
May bring post monsoon rains to Madhya Maharastra and Karnatak next weekend.
Due to the two reasons highlighted above, the initial progress of NEM in Tamil Nadu may be weak.
Chennai may get some rains from Thursday, but may not really pick up above 15/20 mms/day till 22nd/23rd.
Mumbai Monsoon will withdraw from Tuesday 15th...resulting in warmer days around 34/35c.
Pune also post Monsoon will see sunny days and a nip in the night, going to 17/18c next week.
Next weekend post monsoon showers a possibility.