Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Wednesday Morning 08.30 am IST Position


Posted Tuesday 22nd Afternoon:

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is currently in phase 2 with amplitude more than 1 till 24th.  It will remain in  phase 2 from the 24th till 28th with amplitude more than 1. 
Afterwards it is likely to remain in phase-2 with amplitude less than 1. 
Thus MJO phase will support enhancement of convective activity over the Arabian Sea (AS) from 25th onwards..


Mumbai: Rain shower on Tuesday and Wednesday, with  a few heavy in some parts.

Pune will get heavy rains on Wednesday..special attention !

Light rains in Surat next 2 days...thereafter ceases.

7 comments:

Abizer kachwala said...

Extremely heavy rains in Nagothane right now

sset said...

If MOJO favors AS what happened since last 5 years for NEM failure over south east India? Since 2015 NEM has failed over Tamil Nadu and South AP. This time with absence of WD great hopes for TN - expecting dump of 300-500mm in 24 hrs but pathetic figures over TN just 2 digits of rain, low has touched coast and moved towards north, if bay low would have moved interior of TN then at-least some good rains over entire TN, apart from this use-less AS cyclone low is a big hurdle - if it hit MAHA/GUJ/OMAN - dump of 400-500mm of rain. It is NEM but raining in non-core areas rather than TN/SAP. MAHA widespread 3 digit rains.

MAHARASHTRA ironical - since June raining. Since rains will continue till December 2019. After 3 months again back to SWM 2020!!!! My GOD deadly MAHARASHTRA Mumbai rains - worlds wettest spot!

My query is inspite of WD absence why did bay low move north instead of moving west- interiors of TN ??

Unknown said...

What a hyper active Arabian Sea even post monsoon ! Is this the last one or more to come in November too ? Cannot recollect seeing such events in my years of following the monsoon. Apt to say "Vagaries of the Weather " !

Suresh

Rawat said...

sset I think there is weak WD and westerly trough pushing Low to Andhra coast and thence NE ward.

sset said...

Just like RAJ and GUJ are no longer arid regions given past 5 years of rainfall - with cyclones,WD,SWM,cyclonic circulations consistently visiting them + now latest NEM to join - same with Saudi areas regularly in a year atlest 2-3 cyclones hitting with dump of 500-600mm of rain in 24hrs - AS is playing huge change in climate topology...

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/climate-change/is-the-arabian-sea-no-longer-pacific--65173

In few years all so called existing deserts will disappear become more wetter and greener but new deserts are forming in other areas.

sset said...

Useless AS system has completely dismantled NEM over TN/SAP. - Only benefit with more rains for MAHA/GUJ.

Atul P Naik said...

In Goa, while Tuesday was almost dry, Wednesday since early morning, feels like a rainy day in June!

Posted Monday 18th November : Unseasonal extra rainfall for some cities from cyclones Mid October-Mid November ----...