Thursday, October 03, 2019

 Monsoon 2019...Extra ordinary... Down and up !

The 2019 South West Monsoon has certainly kept all amateur and professional meteorologists on their toes. Starting late, and then picking up to record levels in some parts, while remaining deficit in some be expected in a vast country like India.

But, Vagaries Started its Monsoon chase in April..when the Monsoon Watch-1 was posted.
We start, by first analysing where and how the Monsoon actually begins, or takes "Birth".
Its way down South in the Southern Indian Ocean. At the time begins (to observe when the pacific and South Indian Ocean Typhoons tire out.
Thus allowing the High Pressure systems, Called the Mascrene Highs " to form.
As we see, this huge global phenomena of air and winds rushing from High pressure to low pressure on a huge scale.
Once formed properly, the winds from these Highs rush towards the Equator,and ultimately in June towards the Low pressure over the Indian Sub Continent, as the South West Monsoon.

Monsoon 2019:

This year, the Monsoon arrival was erratic and very late, ...
8th June commencement from Kerala, 25th June Mumbai, 28th June Gujarat, 5th July Delhi and 19th July Entire country.

For the peninsula region, the arrival was late, and almost late elsewhere. We see a huge deficit as of the end of June...-33%.

Then, the Depressions from the Bay started, and covered most of Central India and West Coast. August was almost on record levels for Mumbai and September rained an all time high figure for the month in Mumbai.
August  alone All India was +15%, and September alone was +48% !
2nd Wettest September since records began in 1901.
Result: One of the good Monsoons in 25 years...amongst the Best at +10%....1994 saw +12.5%.

An overall picture of the Monsoon 2019 on all India basis

Central India:

{!7th May Monsoon Watch -4 Prediction by Vagaries}

Daily Mumbai Rain Jumps:


Gaurav raninga said...

Memorable monsoon specially for saurashtra & kutch...Starting was too much late in mid July but then improves a lot and finally ends with large excess...☺️

sset said...

That is exactly I have been saying for past few years... India driest state/regions are no longer GUJ or RAJ - It is south east India - many parts of TN and almost entire south AP (Rayalseema,Cudpah,Chitoor) - main reason is continuous failure of NEM since last 5 years, extended SWM which only favors MAHA,GUJ,RAJ,MP,Orissa. If this trend continues SE India will go in desertification. Let us see NEM 2019 (if this happens!) - It is still raining heavily in Navi Mumbai - when will NEM start for parched SE India????

NilaY Wankawala said...

Sir Thanks for a nice preparation and briefing

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