Thursday, September 03, 2015

 Indian Region Weekend Estimate Map (5th and 6th September) on Current Weather Page

Mumbai City Weekend Estimate:
Friday will see some clouds in the Morning. Getting sunny later in the day. 
Saturday morning again cloudy, with light rain in some parts, getting clear and sunny by noon. Hot days around 32/33c. 
A hot Sunday. Some towering thunder heads may develop in the  East by evening. 
Eastern Outer township ( Panvel, Karjat) may get some light showers in pockets.

September, initially is hot and sunny. But Mumbai can expect thunder showers from between 12th and 15th. These may continue till last week at least. But, on the avarage, I think Mumbai should get another 225-275 mms this month. I am backing on some heavy thunderstorms, which are capable of giving 40-60 mms in one go...lets hope so.

As mentioned, Monsoon may withdraw from Pakistan, Rajasthan and southern Punjab by 5/6th September. The further withdrawal will be from rest of Punjab, Kashmir, H.P. and Uttarkhand by 8th/9th September. The Haryana and Delhi region may get withdrawal between 10th and 15th. We will monitor the next Low before confirming.

What is the difference in satellite images below from last few years when compared to current year ?

All images are from Dundee satellite for water vapour type of same time & date that is of 11.30am IST (0600 UTC), only year is different

                        3rd September 2012

 3rd September 2013

 3rd September 2014

3rd September 2015

Difference is  that in all previous years west coast (Arabian sea branch) was active with good offshore trough !

This year Arabian sea branch of monsoon is in silent mode with no proper offshore trough since July 2015. Konkan/Goa, Kerala having -33% deficient & Coastal Karnataka having -28% deficient rainfall as on today 03-09-2015 !!

Also we can notice that dry air has caused reduction of water vapor. It  is earlier than normal compare to last few years..

With the clear sky conditions prevailing, Deccan plateau sees nippy cool night ! 
Some Min temp for today(03-09-2015):
Belgaum AP 17c
Satara 17.9c
Pune 18c
Kolhapur 19.3c
Nashik 19.5c


Srikanth said...

Deccan Plateau getting colder nights are a clear indication of the shape of things to come Abhijit. Not sure if Konkan would recover this year at all, of the 20 El Nino Years only 4 years has Konkan seen more than 100% of long term average rainfall during September.

Abhijit Modak said...

Ya Srikanth, will have to analyze after SWM that in which years in the past Konkan and whole west coast saw the deficient above 20% !! And what store this September has to be wait & watch hope some magical spells comes before of retreating..

Anonymous said...

Rajesh Sir, when is the SWM withdrawal likely to begin in NW India?

Unknown said...

We should have a all faiths prayer for rains. It works.

sset said...

Bangalore yesterday as per some reports touched nearly all time high for sept - 36c !!! No hint of any rain. Sept supposed to be wettest month. Loss of trees,lakes and added concrete buildings add to all time highs..
Anyway Mumbai has good news green tree cover has increased tremendously - total count of full grown trees near to 25-30 lakh trees !!! This is excluding gaint Sanjay Gandhi national park, mangroves and other hilly forest. But if consider places like Thane,Navi Mumbai count may increase 5-10 times.

Vinod Desai said...

Thunderstorm comin in september itself. does it mean mumbai konkan is not going to get rains by any low in bay this month. Only the end of monsoon rains. That too hit or miss type.

sset said...

IMD already announces withdrawl of SWM from NW India in progress (already started)...but we never know conditions like 2013 sept may occur again ??? It may also happen clouds over SE Arabian sea may start moving north to create a low again??

NilaY Wankawala said...

The Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from western parts of Rajasthan.... Evening Bulletin IMD 04.09.2015...

Also states ...

conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some more parts of northwest India during next 3-­4 days.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Sorry Rajesh sir, cannot got the words "dry air has rushed quickly from Afghanistan".I think its because of lack of any systems in BOB and,or Arabian sea.

Rajesh said...

Nilesh: Wording and views was posted by Abhijit....Water vapour content has reduced in Pakistan and NW India, which Abhijit is depicting is due to the formation of anti cyclone and changes in UTH as explained by me in "withdrawal of Monsoon" article. Please follow the parameters explained in that article. Winds in the extreme upper atmosphere are drier (UTH) and are in the NW direction.

Weather outlook till Friday 2nd December Dry weather in north India in the absence of any WD, daytime weather comfortable and not extreme co...