Thursday, September 17, 2015

Posted Thursday Night:
BB-6, a system with central pressure at 1000 mb, is now located near Wardha (Vidharbh), thus having moved West as estimated. Thursday rains in Vidharbh (till 8.30 pm IST);
Wardha 74 mms, Yeotmal 62 mms, Chandrapur 55 mms, Amravati 49 mms ( Max temp 24.8c), Nagpur 36 mms, Buldhana 22 mms and Akola 21 mms.
Posted Thursday Afternoon:
BB-6, a depression , is currently centred South of Raipur (Chattisgarh). Its cloud band convective effect is strong from good uplift and favourable upper conditions.
Expected to move Westwards.

Thursday: Getting cloudy by late afternoon. Thunder showers in evening.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Rainfall increasing with intermittent showers and thunder showers. Heavy rains in patches. Around 30 -40 mms expected. 
As per request:

Valsad: Very Heavy rainfall on Friday ( 60-70 mms) and Saturday ( 50-60 mms).
Surat: Heavy rains on Friday (75-90 mms) and Saturday heavy, but less than Friday.
Very windy in both places.

Ujjain: Occasional Rainfall on Thursday night and Friday, almost overcast.Decrease by Saturday.

Rainfall will be good in Gujarat and Saurashtra from Friday night and Saturday. North Gujarat regions will be windy and will get very good showers (Heavy in many places). Sabarkantha region and Ahmadabad region will get good showers on Friday and Saturday. Maybe around 35-40  mms in many places on Friday.

Kurduvadi (Solapur): Light rains next 2 days.

Buldana  (Amravati ): Maximum rainfall, (maybe 50-70 mms) will be till Thursday. Rainfall decreases from Friday as system moves away.

Kolkata: Usual thunder showers possible in parts of city.(10-15 mms) No major increase.

Kashmir: Meaningful rainfall for Kashmir next week.

The system BB-6 will not actually reach upto Sindh, not in strength at least. But on Sunday or will bring some thunder showers in Southern and Central Sindh. In some patches, showers may be strong and windy.
This is the estimate today (Thursday). We  will see the movement and revise on Friday if required for Sindh.


Nandan said...

Thanks Vagaries Team....windy weather expected sabarkantha Region 19&20 September?

Shitij said...

Thanks for giving the detailed forecast of surat

Unknown said...

Rajesh, I really appreciate the committment that you bring about to this site. Today is a festival holiday and here you are, writing an insightful weather commentary about a complex BB 6 travelling 1500 kms across the country from East to West. And you were gutsy enough to predict this almost 10 days ahead. Cap off to you in bringing joy to people like us who just love the complexity of the Indian monsoon without trying to squabble why some parts get rain and some do not. Great work, Rajesh and do enjoy Ganesh Chaturthi too whether it thunders or not !!!! Suresh

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Thanks, a lot, sir. Can I say this will be the last rain of the season??

Rajesh said...

Suresh: Thanks and i appreciate the kind words. Its the feedback and response that keeps me committed to vagaries.

Nilesh: Remember, i mentioned that the withdrawal will get stuck somewhere around the M.P. region ? Well, i would not rule out another system from the Bay around 23rd-25th of this month. We will monitor it on vagaries.

Rajesh said...

Suresh: Yes, i had mentioned on 1st sept about a low forming around 12th. reminded again on the 9th..Thanks

Nimish Thaker said...

BB6 now a Deep Depression as per IMD afternoon bulletin and close to Nagpur currently at 21 N

sset said...

Now any more lows over north BB during SWM will prove detrimental/disastrous for onset of NEM. Last year not a single depression/cyclone crossed TN / South AP. Previous year all cyclones proved to be duds.
IMD has put red alert over MAHA - Konkan and GUJ - are we expecting falls > 250 mm in 24hrs??

NilaY Wankawala said...

Sir you have mastered the art of forecasting to the perfection .... I always feel your work should be used in India by IMD to make accurate forecasting available to entire economy as a whole...

Rajesh said...

Nilay: Thanks for the kind words....IMD has very competent scientists to forecast and analyse weather. But a few words encourages me to maintain vagaries.

sset said...

Ultimately cyclone "Chapala" may prove to be false. Other weather sites made a long term prediction for cyclone which may turn to be false. But Vageries Rajesh sir has made an accurate forecast (week duration) and has not mentioned about cyclone - which is true. Precision is big asset for vagaries. Anyway my relatives are saying they are missing BANG september daily rains - due to BB6 and monsoon axis stuck over central India. But "RED ALERT" over MAHA - konkan Goa with extreme falls still remain for 3 days!! If this happen Mumbai will enter into excess zone!

Rawat said...

Sir, imd predict BB6 to move to Gujarat and then recurving toward Punjab via Rajasthan.please tell sir where it will end?

Shri said...

@sset..even if it rains as per Rajesh Sir's prediction, it would still be far from removing the deficit...

 BB 8 effect in Gujarat