Monday, July 14, 2014

Posted 11.00 pm IST Wednesday: 
In a few hours, Statistical Analysis of SWMonsoon performance till 15th July  by GSB on this Page
Next few days weather outlook on Current Weather Page

Welcome Showers in parts of Saurashtra:
Shihor 91 mms, Manavadar 75 mms, Vanthali 72 mms, Muli 58 mms, Gondal 56 mms, Chuda 55 mms, Jesar 50 mms, Vichhiya 36 mms,
In North Gujarat, Vadali 67 mms, Idar and Khedbrahma got 50 mms, Posina 41 mms. 
South Gujarat got major share, being along coast: Gandevi 150 mms, Umergam 149 mms, Jalapor 120 mms, Valsad 112 mms, Navsari 101 mms,  Vapi 95 mms, Surat 47 mms. Ankleshwar 34 mms.Bharuch 30 mms

Mumbai Rains Last 24 hrs ended 8.30 am IST Wednesday: Colaba 228 mms, vagaries 225 mms, Byculla 221 mms, Scruz 174 mms, Chembur 159 mms, Dadar 206 mms, Goregaon 210 mms and Kandivali 162 mms...will put up Lake details later in the day on Mumbai Page
Quiz: This year saw the direst June ever for Colaba...55 mms...Will this year see the wettest July ever ? 

Posted Tuesday Night:
Basically, the overall map for Wednesday remains the same, except a few changes

1. Eastern parts of Gujarat gets heavy rains as the UAC moves NW. 
Surat : Wednesday will see clouded skies and frequent showers. Cool day, will see rainfall getting heavy by evening. Between Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, showers can accumulate up to 50-60 mms in Surat.

2. North Konkan will get heavier rains than the "purple" colour, maybe in the next   shade "Light Green".
Mumbai will get fairly frequent showers and heavy showers on Wednesday. Rains intensity decreasing afternoon/ evening. Showers will bring about 40 mms average rains in Mumbai.
Pune will see a nominal increase in showers on Wednesday. Afternoon Rain in parts of city will be a relief, and could measure around 10 mms on Wednesday. (3 mms on Tuesday)
Nagpur sees a reduction and decrease in rans on Wednesday.

3. Afternoon/evening showers in MP and Odisha on Wednesday from the residual moisture.
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Rainfall In Mumbai from 8.30 am to 8.30 pm IST Tuesday: Colaba 127 mms and Scruz 78 mms
Colaba season's total crosses the 1000 mm mark and is 1037 mms...NOW ABOVE NORMAL

Nagpur Lashed with 109 mms in 9 hrs from 8.30 am !! Wardha gets 85 mms and Amraoti 48 mms in the same period.
Konkan ranged between 119 mms at Colaba and 76 mms at Vagaries with Ratnagiri recording 74 mms and Alibag 57 mms. Rest were between 23 mm s(Scruz ) and 45 mms (Panjim). 

Reasoning and Answer to a query: Except for an unusual 119 mms at Colaba, we have seen between 20 mms and 50 mms at a majority of stations in Konkan and coastal Karnataka on Tuesday. 

The UAC from BB-3 has formed a UAC  in the gulf of Cambay. This was mentioned in Vagaries' Sunday blog. However, the  500 upper air level also sees a horizontal trough along the 20 N line (approximately)..





42 comments:

anant said...

Hi Rajesh,

Is there any hope for Pune ? The rain shortfall is almost 80% . I suppose August and September should give some rains to evade drinking water crisis .

Regards,
Ananth

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir its heavily raining wit gusty winds at present in mira road.sir what is your average predictions for mumbai

Hrishikesh said...

mumbai pressure at 1001 at 12:30pm and dropping!!!!

Atul Naik said...

July 15:Monsoon vigorous over Goa. Heavy rains since early morning. Most places recording 100 mm and more since July 14. Similar trend should be noticed on 15th too!

Hrishikesh said...

hope mumbai gets those heavy rains too!! we are getting moderate rain currently with gusty winds from south

Vinod said...

last one hour heavy rains here in western suburbs as well with high winds.

parshuram shinde said...

HAVEY TO VERY HAVEY RAIN STARTED IN SANATCRUZ JUST NOW

Shripad Nadiger said...

Very heavy rains here in lower parel since past couple of hours..what could be the reason of this , Rajesh Sir ?

Vijayanand said...

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/VABB/2014/7/15/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

is showing good rain in mumbai.

SVT said...

I think rains in Mumbai going to exceed you 40 mm prediction. Pissing it down since 3 pm.

parshuram shinde said...

Very dark cloud over Mumbai but very light rain. In some part of mumbai

Nimish Thaker said...

Looks to me that today will log the heaviest 24 hrs. rainfall in Santacruz for this season.

Bad scenes in Andheri with water logged roads, the traffic has come to an absolute standstill on the Andheri Link Road.

What is the situation at other places in Mumbai?

parshuram shinde said...

Now in santacruz light to modrate rain continues with some havey shower...... With very dark cloud in the sky,cool wind with rain..its amazing to go out to eat some hot coup of tea.

Hrishikesh said...

Sir vile parle and jogeshwari are flooded I hoped for heavy rains and my wish came true!!

Hrishikesh said...

2 trains for church gate cancelled

KHYATI PANDIT said...

It has rained here in mira road frm morning 11am its continuesly raining frm drizzels to rather very to very have rain.is it sir here around mira road raining such because as per your figure its only 23 mm.but sir here in mira road its raining since morning 11pm upto nw also rains are still on frm drizzel to heavy rains.the figures of rain here would b more than 100 mm i guess.sir can i get the figures of rain around mira road.

Amit said...

Rajesh Sir,

Prediction on the dot. A start with a Bang at Nagpur after almost a wait for a month.
Felt great!!!

Amit
Nagpur

Nilesh Ladhad said...

please forecast for valsad

Nilesh Ladhad said...

today its rain only for 90 minutes. last rain was on saturday morning

rajesh said...

Ananth: some rains in Pune Wed, and then on arrival of BB-4

Nilesh: Rains expected in Valsad on Wednesday also...ad the decrease...till weekend

sset said...

Non stop roaring waterfalls in Navi Mumbai - most areas are flooded..guess this might be more than 200mm (Rajesh sir has predicted quite less?? )Mumbai transportation may halt today - deadly UAC

Junaid said...

Panvel has received 117 mm ending 8:30 am today, right now it is raining very heavily.

Hrishikesh said...

sir extreme red area indicating heavy rain clouds are seen west of mumbai will they move in today like yesterday?

Hrishikesh said...

pressure also down to 1000 in mumbai at 10 pm which is generally the highest means it will go down more!!

Shripad Nadiger said...

Its raining heavily here in lower parel with strong winds as well....

khan gazanfar said...

I WANT TO JOIN YOUR GROUP DR.M.GAZANFAR KHAN MIRA ROAD

khan gazanfar said...

WHEN INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL DICREASE

Hrishikesh said...

the winds are very strong from sw direction with intermittent heavy showers in mumbai

Nilesh Ladhad said...

heavy rain since 11 pm till 8 in the morning. after break drizzle starts here in valsad

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir many news papers said it would rain heavily frm 15th july upto 22nd july.what you say abt this sir

Abhijit said...

Heavy rain lashes around Mumbai region.

Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (16-07-2014):

Vihar lake(Mumbai) 191
Tulshi lake(Mumbai) 171
Uran 160
Vasai 144
Panvel 134
Thane 111
Bhivandi 100
Karjat 97
Kalyan 94
Barvi Dam(Badlapur) 87
Ambernath 78
Ulhasnagar 76
Shahapur 71
Palghar 64

Mumbai water supplying lake rainfall for today in mms :

Tansa 62
Bhatsa 60
Modak sagar 52
Middle Vaitarna 31
Vaitarna 28

Nimish Thaker said...

The Mumbai Doppler Radar continues to be stuck in time at 22:22 on July 14. The Doppler mysteriously is unavailable when it rains the most in the city.

SVT said...

It could be wettest July in Colaba if BB4 will dumps more rains next week.

anant said...

Thank you for the update.

It drizzled a bit in Pune in the morning, reports suggest rains are still marginal in the Ghats and dam catchment area.

Is monsoon pull effect still weak for the rains to descend into the ghats ?

Regards, Ananth

Shripad Nadiger said...

The rains have decreased considerable here in Lower Parel,since past one hour...though there are intermittent heavy showers.

khan gazanfar said...

Rain is decreased in mira rd

khan gazanfar said...

when u ll give next bullettin sir

Shripad Nadiger said...

Rajesh Sir,
Sites like skymet are predicting that...this year Mumbai has a chance to record the all time highest rainfall for July...what are your view and comments on this ?

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir when will you put the forecaste for thursday, friday....

rajesh said...

shripad: would not like to comment on other agencies estmate
Khan: welcome to join..

Khyati: detailed forecast on Thursday night...

rajesh said...

Spoke with IMD Colaba..doppler will be ready by Friday...as under repairs due to failure..

Yash Naik said...

So with almost 1500mm of rain this is the wettest July in Mumbai ever.