Monday, July 28, 2014

BB-5 now at sea level over Odisha and pressure at 996 mb. Gradually merging in axis as UAC.
UAC 2 forms over West MP...and moving West as shown in vagaries' map.

Mumbai received 50 ms at Scruz and 18 mms at colaba in the day on Tuesday (against 60-80 mms forecasted for Tuesday day and night). Heavy rains in excess of 100 mms  as forecasted for Wednesday.

Surat got 48 mms in 12 hrs on Tuesday...more is forecasted from Wednesday .> 110 mms.

Nagpur can get heavy showers Tuesday night and earlty Wednesday.

Regions of Pakistan Central areas as shown in vagaries' map get showers on Tuesday.

Valsad had received 260 mms in 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Tuesday and another 153 mms till 5.30 pm Tuesday.
Kaprada in Valsad region got a massive 307 mms in 24 hrs ended Tuesday morning.

Navi Mumbai 67 mms till 8.30 am Tuesday.

See Mumbai Page for Rohit's Updates on Regional Rains...

Posted Monday 28th Night: Latest Mumbai Lake Levels on Mumbai Page

BB-5 currently as a low, will deepen slightly to around 994/996 mb by Tuesday 29th /Wednesday 30th, and track inland as shown in chart. System will survive as a UAC at 700 hpa levels till Thursday.
Another Low forms over the Gujarat/Rajasthan region. This forms mainly as the axis slip southwards. Associated with a strong UAC, the other seasonal low will be capable of precipitating heavy rains in the areas shown. 
Very Heavy rains expected in Kutch.
Very heavy rains amounting to > 110 mms expected in Surat and Bharuch from Tuesday evening.

UAC 2 will move West and effect the Sindh coast on Thursday. 

Mumbai City: Tuesday 29th  and Wednesday 30th  city will see intermittent rains, occasional showers. Heavy showers with prolonged duration, can lead to flooding in some areas.
Rains would amount to about 60-80 mms on Tuesday and 70-90 mms Wednesday.
Summary: Mumbai City:130-170 mms expected next 2 days (Tuesday/Wednesday).
All Northern and Eastern Outer townships can expect very heavy rains in excess of 100 mms next 2 days.
Thursday 31st: After a wet morning, rains decrease in intensity on Thursday. 

Intermittent rains and few heavy showers on Monday in Mumbai...


Anonymous said...

i would guess heavy to very heavy rains atleast towards north konkan gujarat with possible flooding....

Shri said...

Thanks Rajesh Sir...for a detailed information..looking forward for a wet week a head.

Rohit said...

What are gains in terms of rain for Pune about the recent UAC & lows?

SVT said...

I think Mumbai will get over 200 mm rains in next 36 hours. Some parts of South Gujarat could even touch 250mm.

sset said...

Can GUJ receive sept 2013 kind of rains???

sset said...

Every year (probably for last 5 years) same pattern of rain - excess over central India - leaving entire south India dry... we need to wait for axis to come down - oct/nov??? massive climate change..MAHA has advantage of troughs over Arabian sea + BB depressions UAC... what is difference between trough and UAC? As per definition see no difference?

The primary characteristic of a trough is that it is a region with relatively lower heights. as air cools the height lowers since the air is becoming more dense. Air will cool when it rises, thus a trough can be found where there is a lifting of air. A trough can bring in cloudy conditions and precipitation

Usually we see this: Warm air rises over a warm region. That is called a convection and it creates low pressures. That air then cools down with altitude.

sset said...

End july 2014 Mumbai can easily reach 1500mm.. Navi Mumbai and nearby areas like Lonavala could have easily exceeded.

sset said...

Considering Mumbai can easily touch 1500mm by end july-- that is very good.
Below information from Vageries july 2013....Blast from past!!!

Is Mumbai in for the fastest 2000 mms ever ? Will it beat the previous record of 60 days this year ?

Mumbai Santa Cruz total rain 1935 mms till 26th July Morning.

Will this year be the earliest 2000 mm (fastest) ever ?
The current record for the fastest 2000 mms at Santa Cruz was in 1965, when it touched 2000 mms on 30th July, in 60 days. Followed by 2005 when the total was surpassed on 31st July, in 61 days.

Short this year by 65 mms and 4 days to go to beat the record for fastest ever 2000 mms !

Colaba, just for the records, has crossed 2000 mms by July 3 times. In 1886, 1907 and 1991. But, we are still way behind for this station to cross 2000 mms by July end.

Abhijit Modak said...

Heavy rain lashes Thane District.. Rain was more massive in North Thane Dist :

Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today :

Talasari 460
Surya dam 287
Vikramgadh 282
wada 272
Shahapur 236
Dahanu 218
Bhivandi 190
Palghar 165
Jawhar 160
Murbad 145
Ulhasnagar 142
Kalyan & Ambernath 136
Vasai 123
Thane 111
Barvi dam(Badlapur) 76

Abhijit Modak said...

Rains were reduced in Mumbai but got massive in water supplying lake area which was most needed..

Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (29-07-2014):

Mumbai water supplying lake rainfall for today in mms :

Tansa 277
Bhatsa 247
Modak sagar 216
Tulshi lake(Mumbai) 149
Vaitarna 145
Middle Vaitarna 107
Vihar lake(Mumbai) 96
Santacruz 48
Colaba 27

Ghat rainfall ending 8.30am today:

Mulshi 188
Lonavala 144
Walvan,Lonavala 132
Koyna 131
Mahabaleshwar 98

Tyrone said...

Rajesh I hope Karachi benefits from this new scenario :(


sir what is the annul rainfall of mumbai from 1st june upto september both in mumbai santacruz n colaba stations

sset said...

Figures given by Abhijit (north thane rain) in 24 hrs are equivalent to 1 year rain over many places of Rayalseema/interiors of TN/KAR....460mm usually are cyclonic kind of rains.

Today surat/valsad receives 260mm of rain... last year it was 400mm...

sunday navi mumbai rains...
panvel-220mm, belapur-218mm, vashi-199mm, nerul-185mm, kharghar-180mm, ulwe-175mm, airoli-160mm, morbe-140mm, dronagiri-116....

With these kind of rains GUJ/RAJ may become excess?

sset said...

Mumbai overtakes Mangalore/Madekiri.. Apprently entire coastal KAR/KERALA have not received any heavy rains for past 2 weeks.. impacting Cauvery...lifeline for KAR/TN...


sir in news its showing an alert of heavy to very heavy rain in mumbai in next 24 hours.sir what are your views on this

Rajesh said...

Rohit Gule: Pune already benefited with 25 mms in the day on can also get showers.

Talasari received 26 cms as on Tuesday morning..

Squally weather and showers, at times heavy, for Mumbai on Tuesday night and wednesday. 24 hrs ended Wed morning reading may end up near our targeted 60-80 mms. Wed day and night can see more than 100 mms.

SVT said...

Mumbai could easily get close to 200 mm rains in next 24 hours. Some parts of South Gujarat might get 250mm rains in next 36 hours. THERE WILL BE FLOOD.

anant said...

Hi Rajesh

Pune received 84 mm of rains and there is moderate flow in the river


Shri said...

Just traveled from Mira Road to Lower Parel..its dark and cloudy but no rains as of now.

Vinod Desai said...

Very Heavy rains in Gujarat.
Specifically South Gujarat and Ahmedabad Gandhinagar Region. Also North Gujarat is getting heavy rains since morning.

Wednesday 6.30 pm IST