As on date, the worst affected region is Gujarat Region at -92% and Saurashtra at -83%...And that is bad, very bad !
But, overall, North West India is worst off as a region showing an average deficit of -48%, while the Central India is at -63%.
Southern Peninsula is in bad condition at -38%. Map shows it all.
What happens now ? Will we face a full fledged drought ?
Before getting into a negative mood, let us analyse what will possibly happen in July.
Typhoon Neoguri has moved into Japan as a powerful category Typhoon. It has pulled off a lot of clouding from our region, but , it can also send in pulses into the Bay which will bring Low pressure systems into the Bay. As early as 12th July (BB-3). We can have a Low in the Bay, which can bring rains to much needed Central India.
A weak MJO will be prevailing in our seas for the next 2 weeks. A strong wave travels Eastwards, and enhances precipitation in Far SE Asia. But this also has a positive angle for the Indian Sub Continent ! A strong MJO in the Far East region in the South China Seas will enhance the chances of 1 or 2 more typhoons in the Pacific, West Pacific. And that would mean more pulses, and more systems in the Bay in July. 2/3 more Lows or depressions in July could be good for Central and NW India. And hopefully, better for the Sindh region of Pakistan if the systems survive the track through India.
ENSO is still in neutral phase. Not sufficiently gaining to make the El Nino mark yet. Sub Surface SST have cooled, and the SOI is getting into the negative mode. Currently at -3.3. But, all wind and atmospheric patterns remain neutral. So, persistent changes are required to go into the full El Nino phase, and for an El Nino to form, it can go into September.
BB-3 may form off AP/Odhisha around 12th July and track W/NW.
BB-4 forming off Odisha coast around 21st July can track North-Westwards, as axis may come South wards. Soon after BB-4, axis shifts towards Himalayas again.
Vagaries gives a long term forecast for July (which can vary).
All the above parameters may entice
a) sufficient rains in Central India and Southern Peninsula for a normal July. These events can also trigger UACs in the Southern Bay.
b)North India (Delhi included) can get deficient rains in July.
c) Saurashtra gets rains as off shore trough Northern end strengthens from 11th. Again, as BB-4 moves west, Saurashtra may get some showers. Gujarat Region may recover from BB-4 for sure. Kutch may see scarcity of rains.
d) NW India and Sindh can get slightly below normal rains, as we do not know if the systems from the Bay reach the region. BB-3 may not reach Rajasthan and Sindh. BB-4 is the hope for some rains and Monsoon in Sindh region.
e) Encouraged by the absence of regular systems from the Bay (that would mean 4/5 Lows), WDs would rule over Pak Punjab and the North Indian Himalayan States.
f)West coast rainfall could be normal for July. West Coast off shore trough strengthens with BB-3 and BB-4 .
g)Pulses from the Bay straying as UACs will keep the Bengal and NE States wet with just about average rains.
June saw an All India rainfall of 92.4 mms ( 167 mms avg) that was -43%. Thinking in a possibly favourable scenario, rather than creating alarms,
July,if normal can get 295 mms.. so, we would get (92+ 295) 387 mms by July end.and that would reduce the deficit to -16%.