Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Monsoon 2014: Progress and Prospects...9th July 

Review of the South West Monsoon in India till 9th July 2014: The overall performance till 9th July is bad. At -43%, it is considered as a threshhold of a drought. Normally, at the end of the season, anything below -20% is considered very bad, and drought parameters would be met with .
As on date, the worst affected region is Gujarat Region at -92% and Saurashtra at -83%...And that is bad, very bad !
But, overall, North West India is worst off as a region showing an average deficit of -48%, while the Central India is at -63%. 
Southern Peninsula is in bad condition at -38%. Map shows it all.

What happens now ? Will we face a full fledged drought ?

Before getting into a negative mood, let us analyse what will possibly happen in July.
Typhoon Neoguri has moved into Japan as a powerful category Typhoon. It has pulled off a lot of clouding from our region, but , it can also send in pulses into the Bay which will bring Low pressure systems into the Bay. As early as 12th July (BB-3). We can have a Low in the Bay, which can bring rains to much needed Central India.

A weak MJO will be prevailing in our seas for the next 2 weeks. A strong wave travels Eastwards, and enhances precipitation in Far SE Asia. But this also has a positive angle for the Indian Sub Continent ! A strong MJO in the Far East region in the South China Seas will enhance the chances of 1 or 2 more typhoons in the Pacific, West Pacific. And that would mean more pulses, and more systems in the Bay in July. 2/3 more Lows or depressions in July could be good for Central and NW India. And hopefully, better for the Sindh region of Pakistan if the systems survive the track through India.

ENSO is still in neutral phase. Not sufficiently gaining to make the El Nino mark yet. Sub Surface SST have cooled, and the SOI is getting into the negative mode. Currently at -3.3. But, all wind and atmospheric patterns remain neutral. So, persistent changes are required to go into the full El Nino phase, and for an El Nino to form, it can go into September.

BB-3 may form off AP/Odhisha around 12th July and track W/NW. 
BB-4 forming off Odisha coast around 21st July can track North-Westwards, as axis may come South wards. Soon after BB-4, axis shifts towards Himalayas again.

Vagaries gives a long term forecast for July (which can vary). 
All the above parameters may entice 
a) sufficient rains in Central India and Southern Peninsula for a normal July. These events can also trigger UACs in the Southern Bay.

b)North India (Delhi included) can get deficient rains in July. 

c) Saurashtra gets rains as off shore trough Northern end strengthens from 11th. Again, as BB-4 moves west, Saurashtra may get some showers. Gujarat Region may recover from BB-4 for sure. Kutch may see scarcity of rains.

d) NW India and Sindh can get slightly below normal rains, as we do not know if the systems from the Bay reach the region. BB-3 may not reach Rajasthan and Sindh. BB-4 is the hope for some rains and Monsoon in Sindh region.

e) Encouraged by the absence of regular systems from the Bay (that would mean 4/5 Lows), WDs would rule over Pak Punjab and the North Indian Himalayan States. 

f)West coast rainfall could be normal for July. West Coast off shore trough strengthens with BB-3 and BB-4 .

g)Pulses from the Bay straying as UACs will keep the Bengal and NE States wet with just about average rains.

June saw an All India rainfall of 92.4 mms ( 167 mms avg)  that was -43%. Thinking in a possibly favourable scenario, rather than creating alarms, 

July,if normal can get 295 mms.. so, we would get (92+ 295) 387 mms by July end.and that would reduce the deficit to  -16%.


Unknown said...

rajesh sir as u mentioned rains hav picked up in kerala... we recieved 50mm last nyt... thnx a lot sir hope we get normal rains this month or cardamom production is gonna take a toss this year in india....

Tyrone said...

Enjoyed reading the blog Rajesh as always, (which comes to my email inbox). Depressing to see such low rainfall for India. Imagine what would happen for southern Pakistan (Sindh) in particular in this scenario.

But am keeping my hopes alive and praying BB3 & 4 manage to maintain till Sindh and we get good rains during July - Aug.


sir what are your predictions for mumbai for thursday, friday, saturday n sunday .bcoz today there is no rain but a cloudy to partly cloudy to sunny weather in mumbainot a typical july weather of mumbai.when can we expect the typical july rains in mumbai.

Abhijit Modak said...

Only Mumbai rocking this July till today !! Rest all waiting for their first 100mm of the season..

Mumbai rainfall ending 8.30am today :
Vagaries 115mm
Colaba 111.4mm
Scruz 49mm

Total rainfall in Mumbai from 1 June to 10 July 2014 :

Colaba 558mms
Santacruz 554 mms
Vagaries 550 mms

Water supplying Lakes rainfall ending 8.30am today :

Vihar 49mm & Tulshi 32mm(Note both lakes on the coast)
Bhatsa & Vaitarna 3mm
Tansa 2mm
Modak sagar 0mm

Total rainfall in lakes from 1 June to 10 July 2014 :

Tulshi 533 mms(lake on Mumbai coast)
Vihar 480 mms (lake on Mumbai coast)
Bhatsa 166 mms
Modak Sagar 146mms
Vaitarna 134 mms
Tansa 105 mms

SVT said...

It seems both Mumbai and catchment area might get over 200 mm in next 48 hours.

Hrishikesh said...

Mumbai likely to receive heavy rain in next 48hrs!!! sir what are ur predictions for mumbai?

sset said...

seems monsoon may enter GUJ with big-bang... 200mm+

sset said...

K Pandit -> not sure about your statement.. today entire Navi Mumbai, thane, vihkroli non stop vigourous rain for 24 hrs!!!


Mr.sset i had posted my comment in morning as it was not raining here in mira road northen side of mumbai from yesterday night we had small durations showers of light rain

Junaid said...

Sset sir can you justify non stop 24 hours rains, looks like imaginary happenings from your fantasies. :) and I wish it comes true in the rain starved western ghats.

Hrishikesh said...

Western suburbs of Mumbai getting extremely heavy rain currently

Vijayanand said...

Nice rain in bangalore for the last 3 days. Rains starts by late afternoon and lasts till late night. Its on and off typical monsoon rain.

Shri said...

i just traveled from my mira rd to my office in lower parel...its raining heavily all along the way..!!!


sir what is your forecaste for saturday n sunday

Abhijit Modak said...

Heavy rain lashes many coastal regions..

Some rainfall around Mumbai region ending 8.30am today (11-07-2014):

Colaba 101mm
Uran 96mm
Vagaries 86mm
Tulshi lake(Mumbai) 74mm
Vihar lake(Mumbai) 73mm
Panvel 72mm
Thane 62mm
Bhivandi 50mm
Santacruz 48mm
Palghar 36mm
Kalyan & Barvi Dam(Badlapur) 31mm
Ulhasnagar 23mm
Vasai 15mm
Ambernath & Karjat 13mm

Mumbai Water supplying Lakes rainfall ending 8.30am today :

Bhatsa 17mm
Modak sagar 14mm
Vaitarna 8mm
Tansa 7mm

Abhijit Modak said...

Sindhudurg district gets much needed wide spread heavy rains.

Rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today(11-07-2014) :

Malvan 177.0
Devgad 155.0
Vengurla 138.6
Kankavali 118.0
Sawantwadi 112.0
Kudal 110.0
Dodamarg 56.0
Vaibhavwadi 51.0

sset said...

Non stop torrential rains in Mumbai. By tomorrow likely to touch 700mm...Very cold. It seems Mumbai will overtake Mangalore/Augumbe.. Entire KAR, KERALA, AP, TN no rain. Also el-nino seems to have ran away looking at Mumbai rains. When will rains over Mumbai stop - require sun now. Of-course coastal areas of KARNATAKA too no heavy rains - only MUMBAI-MAHA. Now at 10.30pm in NAVI MUMBAI raining like cyclone. Rajesh sir when will rains stop?????

Vijayanand said...

Of-course coastal areas of KARNATAKA too no heavy rains - only MUMBAI-MAHA

Try to get your facts right.

Top 15 Karnataka Toppers this Monsoon from 01.06.2014 to 19.06.2014

1. Talacauvery, Kodagu - 626
2. Kedinje, Udupi - 610
3. Mangalore AP, Dakshin Kannada - 548
4. Mudabidri, Dakshin Kannada - 539
5. Aversa, Uttara Kannada - 522
6. Puttige, Udupi - 514
7. Kuppepadavu, Dakshin Kannada - 513
8. Kollur, Udupi - 499
9. Sunkasal, Uttara Kannada - 478
10. Shirali, Uttara Kannada - 471
11. Hulikal, Shimoga - 463
12. Hosakere, Chikmagalur - 460
13. Karwar, Uttara Kannada - 451
14. Udupi, Udupi - 450
15. Kottigehara, Chikmagalur - 450

Source: Our Rainman PJ

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