Friday, July 11, 2014

 BB-3 lies as a Low over Odisha and adjoining W.Bengal on Saturday evening. Upper air circulation extends upto 500 hp and tilts SW.The Low at sea level will rise to upper levels. Seems now that an upper air trough will form at 500/700 hp levels, instead of a UAC.
Upper air trough will run across from Odisha through MP till Gujarat.

Mumbai Monsoon Status with Lakes As on 12th July 2014...on Mumbai Page

Polar Vortex Returns to U.S. Mid West....from the Ohio Valley to the upper Mid-Atlantic..see International Page

Vagaries had kept the Monsoon hopes alive...and now sees things improving from this weekend...

Weekend Forecast and Current Position.....Posted 11th July.

BB-3 has formed, and is located off Odisha Coast. tilting SE with height and going into the 500 hp level. Major effect of precipitation in the Western segment of the Low.
System likely to move West, and remain as a UAC after Saturday Evening. The UAC will track Westwards across MP and move into the Gulf of Cambay on Monday 14th.

Saturday 12th: Very Heavy Precipitation in Telengana (Including Hyderabad), heavy rains in adjoining South Chattisgarh and Vidharbha. Good rains in Eastern Vidharbah and Nagpur and parts of N.I. Karnataka.
Heavy rains (> 80 mms) along Maharashtra Coastline and moderate rains ( 40-80 mms) along Karnataka and Kerala coast. Idukki region and mountains around can get heavy showers.
Light rains in Saurashtra.

Sunday 13th: Very Heavy rains in South MP, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada (including Aurangabad). Moderate rains along West Coast. Rains decreasing East of the UAC. Heavy showers in several parts of Odisha.
Gusty S/SE winds along the East Coast and strong SW winds off Maharashtra Coast.
Dry air which mved into North India and lay stable for the last 4 days, may see a shift now. The UAC ( BB-3) pressure creeps in the Central Indian region, and brings some moisture into the Gujarat, East rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and West UP regions. as Upper air Easterly winds.


Monday 14th:  The UAC will possibly cross into the Gulf of Cambay. and merge into the off shore trough. It could soon remain as an UAC in the North Arabian Sea , off South Gujarat coast or North Konkan /South Gujarat coast.
Heavy rains in Gujarat region, South Gujarat ( Surat and Bharuch) and Saurashtra. Rains getting heavy in North Konkan.
Chances of rains increasing again in MP.
Rain again in Delhi NCR after Monday 14th.

Pakistan remains mainly dry and hot. Strong Northerly upper winds will keep the moistue away, and form a high pressure area over North Punjab and adjoining Extreme NW Pakistan.
No system or trough approaching Karachi to bring rains. Cloudy weather from the UAC may bring very light drizzles in the vicinity of the city this weekend. Nothing meaningful.

Mumbai: The current spell of rain shows a decrease in intensity from Saturday. The present trend of 100 mms per day will reduce to about 30 mms on Saturday and maybe 30-35 mms on Sunday.
If the UAC forms off the North Konkan coast on Monday, we could see an increase in rains again on Monday 14th.
Pune: Light to medium showers expected on the weekend with around 5-10 mms/day. Next week will also see showers in Pune.

Heavy rains in Hyderabad ( India) on Saturday.
Heavy Thunder showers in Nagpur this weekend.
Bangalore will see convective showers in the afternoon/evening this weekend.

No meaningfull rains inTN this weekend.

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See Mumbai Page for Lake Levels and Rainfall

32 comments:

Rajesh Kumar said...

so rain wherever needed.:)

prabhu archana said...

thanx a lot rajesh sir... all planters here in idukki requested me to thank u on thier behalf...

SVT said...

Great work Rajesh. Very detailed. If UAC crosses into Arabian sea and stay off south Gujarat/North Konkan coast, how much rain will Mumbai get o Monday and Tuesday?

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir so how much did it rain yesterday in mumbai.n what would b your average for month of july in mumbai

sset said...

Myself still do not understand why readers/people speak about Mumbai lakes not filled - unfortunately happened this year 2014(anyway we still have time). But Mumbai on an average receives 3000mm-4000mm yearly rain. Why not government use GROUND WATER - which is totally unused in Mumbai - vast storage??? Place like Bangalore have no drinking water lakes (due to lack of rains or concrete mess) depends only on ground water (80% via sumps and borewell) rest 20% comes from far far away expensive cauvery river - imagine this needs to be pumped 1000m above!!! Mumbai is fortunate to be blessed with 10 drinking water lakes ( + ssceneric - mountains) but still has vast ground water potential which is totally unused - concept of sumps and borewell is unheard in Mumbai - but in Bangalore early morning every house switches on to ground water...as lake water comes ones in 10 days to resedential areas (if fortunate - else buy water). Places like Hyderabad are worse drinking water comes to house ones in 15 days...

Raja Tanveer said...

BB-3 effect Thar Region ??

Rajesh Kumar said...

Sset..sir Bangalore gets kaveri water 4 times a week nowadays.. Not once in 10 days.. And wherever arrangements for kaveri water is not there government is working on it.

Junaid said...

Panvel records 173 mm in 24 hours ending 8:30 am today

parshuram shinde said...

VERY HAVEY RAIN STARTED IN SANTACRUZ WITH GUSTY WIND .....NOW MODEREATE RAIN START WITH GUSTY WIND

Abhijit said...

Mahabaleshwar finally gets first 100mm of the season.. It recorded 119.7 mms in 24 hours ending 8:30 am today. Max temp yesterday was 18.6c & min temp 16.2c today.

sset said...

Both Santacruz/Colaba are nearly same now 750mm (-100mm),defeciency is very less, another dump of 100mm is anyway on way... guess with this Mumbai will be first city to enter into excess zone... (monday may again bring extreme rains)... Not good for coastal KAR, KERALA... Augume (-1200mm)

sset said...

No heavy rains over AP despite forcasts... not good.

Junaid said...

Sset see the huge deficits of Maharashtra ghats mahabaleshwar lonavala Matheran, everyone having deficit above 1000 mm

GSB said...
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GSB said...
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GSB said...
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GSB said...

Konkan & Goa received good rainfall in the last seven days...here are the top 25 stations....(IMD figures)

MALVAN ---------- 541
SHRIWARDHAN ---------- 507.4
MURUD ---------- 484
RATNAGIRI ---------- 480.1
ALIBAG ---------- 452.3
DEVGAD ---------- 440
COLABA ---------- 435.9
HARNAI ---------- 425.2
MARGAO ---------- 413.2
KANKAVLI ---------- 400
SANGAMESHWAR ---------- 392.5
URAN ---------- 392
VENGURLA ---------- 390.2
GUHAGARH ---------- 378.6
LANJA ---------- 349.4
VALPOI ---------- 346.3
GAGANBAWADA ---------- 340.6
SANTACRUZ ---------- 338.8
DAPOLI ---------- 335.4
MARMUGAO ---------- 329.1
MHASLA ---------- 327.2
BHIRA ---------- 323
SAWANTWADI ---------- 321
TALA ---------- 319
PERNEM ---------- 317.8

(I inadvertently pressed the enter button twice so incorrect posts got posted..this is the correct post)

GSB said...

These are the top 50 KONKAN & GOA stations from June 1st 2014..

MALVAN ---------- 1274
MARGAO ---------- 1174.8
CANACONA ---------- 1007.4
VALPOI ---------- 920.9
GUHAGARH ---------- 919.9
DODAMARG ---------- 907
SANGAMESHWAR ---------- 897.6
VENGURLA ---------- 884.1
DEVGAD ---------- 862
GAGANBAWADA ---------- 857.9
SAWANTWADI ---------- 849
KUDAL ---------- 828
LANJA ---------- 822.5
PANJIM ---------- 820.4
PERNEM ---------- 819.8
MARMUGAO ---------- 803.7
PONDA ---------- 790.1
RAJAPUR ---------- 758.3
KANKAVLI ---------- 757
HARNAI ---------- 750.5
COLABA ---------- 741.3
CHIPLUN ---------- 740
DABOLIM ---------- 730.2
SHRIWARDHAN ---------- 720
RATNAGIRI ---------- 709.3
SANTACRUZ ---------- 709.1
MHASLA ---------- 708.2
QUEPEM ---------- 707.2
MAPUSA ---------- 704
MURUD ---------- 681
ALIBAG ---------- 666.1
BHIRA ---------- 640
DAPOLI ---------- 626.5
TALA ---------- 616
ROHA ---------- 602
SANGUEM ---------- 589.6
PALGHAR ---------- 575.5
PEN ---------- 547.2
MAHABALESHWAR ---------- 545.4
TBIA ---------- 544
KHED ---------- 538.3
URAN ---------- 519
THANE ---------- 506
PANVEL ---------- 500.3
POLADPUR ---------- 481
TALASARI ---------- 477
MAHAD ---------- 474
MANDANGAD ---------- 474
MANGAON ---------- 446.8
DAHANU ---------- 402.2

sset said...

GSB figures clearly shows MAHA is ahead of KAR despite, MAHA late arrival of monsoons. Again Rajesh sir forcast hits target - monsoon enters exactly in diagonal orissa,MP,GUJ,RAJ.. Hope this will shift monsoon up and brings relief from Mumbai rain. Correct Juniad unfortunately we have very skew distribution...

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir you had forecasted 30 to 35 mm of rain for mumbai on saturday but it has rained more than it.so any new forecaste for sunday n monday by u sir

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Does any one has idea of the rain figures about today's rain in mumbai n the catchmanent areas of lakes supplying water to mumbai.because in newspapers its always said that its not raining much in the catchment areas

rajesh said...

khyati: Rains were less than previous few days when it averaged 100 mms/day...Saturady saw average 54 mms...
Total rainfall with lakes rainon Mumbai Page

sunday forecast does not change. Mumbai may get some showers amounting to 30-35 mms on Sunday...

Pavan said...

Sset your comment provoked me to comment after ages n this blog. Better u switch yourself to write fictions. Please check the ground reality the region of the subcontinent you hated the most had been painted Green by IMD.

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir as u said abt the heavy rain on monday if an uac forms near north konkan coast .so as per that what is your prediction of average rainfall for monday ,tuesday n wednesday

vishwas shinde said...

Seen It s very rare dark clouds in santacruz..

Vijayanand said...

GSB figures clearly shows MAHA is ahead of KAR despite, MAHA late arrival of monsoon by who else SSET

Can you provide the source. Dear GSB data is referring only to goa and MAH.

Venkatesh D said...

Dear SSET,

do you know the numbers from karnataka today

Talacauvery - 31 CM
Agumbe -25 CM
Bhagmandala -25cm

There many place more than 15CM today

Hrishikesh said...

mumbai pressure down to 1001!!!

rajesh said...

Shall try to put up a post tonite.

sset: you see from vagaries posting it is always good to be positive and see a balanced picture. Too much on one tilting is also not good..generally one tends to overlook the positive angle then...

Rains have come a day ahead of our vagaries schedule drawn for Monday...East Raj and Delhi NCR are getting rains as well as parts of MP. Though rain is light in Hyd.
Moisture has crept into Gujarat as estimated..

Mumbai rainfall has reduced on Sunday, showing only 8 mms at colaba and 23 mms at Scruz in the day..
Mahableshwar recieved 45 mms on Sunday

Rajesh Kumar said...

Rajesh sir, Will rain decrease in interior peninsula in coming week?

Vinod said...

Thankyou Rajesh for the updates. I am always eager to read the weather updates every morning and if i don't see latest updates every morning I feel dejected.

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Hyderabad received negligible showers on Saturday and light yesterday night(in some parts of city). I think UAC didn't touch / cross Telangana region.