Saturday, July 19, 2014

Updating Late Sunday Night..

All India Monsoon deficit as on 19th July: -32%

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Mumbai Lake Meter: 19th July: Total Storage 2.01 lmlt
Last year 9.33 lmlt and 2012 2.66 lmlt...Full Capacity 14.5 lmlt

Click on Picture


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Posted Friday 18th Night:

Saturday 19th
1. An UAC forms on Saturday in Saurashtra at 500 hp level. Due to adverse factors, will not last beyond evening hours on Saturday. 
Heavy rains likely in Central Saurashtra in the day. Heavy falls likely along the trough line, from North Gujarat thru SE Rajasthan and North MP upto West UP.
As the UAC forms, rains increase from Saturday night in Coastal and North Odisha. Some showers in Kolkata.

Sunday 20th
2.BB-4 as a surface Low may not materialise. In conjunction, a UAC takes form by Sunday morning off the Odisha coast. UAC will deepen and track westwards.
3. During Sunday, an upper air trough forms east west along the South Bengal/North Odisha/ Chattisgarh line.
Rains with heavy falls in East MP, North Odisha and Chattisgarh. Some medium rains in Haryana/Punjab (Thunder showers) and Northern regions of Vidharbh.
Southern W.Bengal and Kolkata can get showers in the day.

4. Sunday, again, dry air pushes from North into Pakistan and West Rajasthan and Kutch...bringing the UTH down.But SW surface winds continue in Gujarat, and taper off in Sindh coastline.
For Pakistan, Sunday, barring some rains in Upper Punjab and extreme North, rest regions almost dry. Dry and partly cloudy for Karachi. Temperatures rising again in Pak Punjab and Sindh ...with regions touching 45c in Sindh/Balochistan and 40c in some Punjab cities.

Surat: Saturday: Occasional showers, with a few spots getting heavy rain showers. Rain amounting to around 25-30 mms till Sunday morning.
Sunday will also see few showers in the day, some instant and brief in some areas. Rains decrease by night.
Rains increase next week from Tuesday or Wednesday. Can expect 100 mms next week.

Mumbai
Saturday will see few showers. Some will be heavy and with gusty winds. some areas will get brief spells. Rains amounting to aroud 25 mms. till Sunday morning.
Sunday will see occasional showers with sunny periods. Lesser rain than Saturday. 
Rains increasing next week from Tuesday or Wednesday. About 125-150 mms next week.
Goa also sees rain intensity increasing from Tuesday/Wednesday. May amount to 150 mms next week.

Pune : Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy with light rains amounting to upto 5 mms. Monday evening sees some moderate showers. Rains between Monday and Tuesday may amount to 15-20 mms. Decreasing from Wednesday.

Nagpur: Showers of heavy intensity from Sunday thru Monday. 2 days may accumulate 50-55 mms of rain.

Next Week 21st - 26th:

1. The UAC ( Result of BB-4), will track Westwards . Bringing as a result good rains in MP, North Maharshtra and Gujarat. 
2. But, almost no rainfall in Sindh, and Pak Punjab. We see a counter productive upper winds from the North.
These strong winds may force the UAC to fizzle out just before reaching Gujarat.
3. The West coast remains active till Sunday.
4. As the system moves West, the Northern part, Maharasthra Coast remains active till Wednesday. After Thursday, off shore trough goes weak.
South Interior Peninsula sees no meaningfull rains next week.

Heavy rains in Delhi NCR and North India on 25th Friday and 26th Saturday. 26th also sees rains covering Eastern India.
BB-4 will go as a UAC, but BB-5, next Low from Bay around 28th July...

5 comments:

Abhijit said...

Rain reduced in Mumbai region .Few places in inland & around ghats received heavy rain.

Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (19-07-2014):

Barvi Dam(Badlapur) 102
Karjat 55
Ambernath 42
Murbad 41
Tulshi lake(Mumbai) 40
Panvel 34
Ulhasnagar & Shahapur 30
Thane 25
Uran 24
Kalyan 22
Bhivandi 20
Vihar lake(Mumbai) 14
Santacruz 10
Palghar 9
Vasai 7
Colaba 5


Mumbai water supplying lake rainfall for today in mms :

Modak sagar 61
Vaitarna 58
Bhatsa 34
Middle Vaitarna 28
Tansa 22


Ghat rainfall ending 8.30am today:

Koyna 192
Mulshi 183
Lonavala 150
Mahabaleshwar 116
Walvan,Lonavala 96

prabhu archana said...

rajesh sir any updates for kerala?

Arpit Sharma said...

Chittorgarh in Rajasthan recorded 320 mm of rain ending 8:30 am today. Also Barmer recorded 72.7 mm of rain...

Viravanalluran said...

The formation of MTC [Mid tropospheric Circulation- (usually NOT called as UAC) has more often been observed elsewhere apart from Saurashtra and Kutch in the Indian Sub continent and the surrounding sea. In 2002 or so the mid level incursion of SWM wind and subsequent formation of MTC or even UAC in other area was common. In the recent past 2009 recorded the third rainfall deficient year during the period 1910-2010. This year [2014]may also witness the same pattern.i.e 2001 or 2009.

sset said...

Navi Mumbai dark windy raining torrentially now.....