Monday, July 07, 2014

Report on Monsoon and Prospects of Recovery ...coming here by 11.30 pm IST Wednesday
July contest date extended to 10th July..
Rainfall in Mumbai from Wednesday 08.30 am - 2.30 pm : Colaba 60.6 mms, vagaries 54 mms and Scruz 30 mms...

Wednesday Morning Colaba records 47 mms and Scruz 33 mms, almost on lines with our Tuesday estimate (around 30 mms)..Wednesday estimates given on Monday (Below)...

Article written for Marathwada and Vidharbha in Lokmat Times of 9th July...Re produced on Current Weather Page

Monday 7th Night:

1. Mumbai region, only around Mumbai saw a spurt of rain on Monday evening, with Colaba measuring 24 mms, Scuz 62 mms and Vagaries 68 mms till Night.
A spurt i say as the immediate South (Alibag) and the immediate North (Nala Sopara) saw nothing. Due to a local incursion again.

Next 3/4 days, we see major meaning full rains along West Coast of India, East UP, NE States and North Bengal. Besides this, rains in Telangana and adjoining South Chattisgarh...

Tuesday 8th July onwards, we see the West Coast trough strengthening from Goa Southwards. The trough will also gain Northwards towards Konkan from Tuesday night or Wednesday.
While good showers are expected along the coast in Karnataka and Goa on Tuesday thru Friday, we can expect showers to increase in entire Konkan from Wednesday. 
Rainfall increasing in Kerala and interior Kerala from 10th.
The MJO remains neutral in the seas around the Indian Sub Continent. A strong MJO is seen moving East South of the Indian Peninsula.

Mumbai will see cloudy skies with a few showers on Tuesday, and increasing rains on Tuesday Night.Around 30 mms in the evening/night.  Wednesday will get intermittent rain spells with again more rain in the evening. Would expect 35 - 40 mms Wednesday till Thursday morning.

2. An upper air High pressure area forms over the Northern/NW regions of India from Tuesday. Dry winds at 500/700 hp from the North would would bring sunny and hot conditions to the Northern regions and  drier conditions in Punjab. Haryana, Delhi, West UP, MP, Rajasthan and Gujarat. 
Since the High is towards central India, Saurashtra region may get some showers on Thursday.
Interior Maharshtra sees no major rains next 3/4 days.

Pakistan is expected to be mainly dry and hot next 3/4 days.

3. An UAC at 500 hp forms over Telangana and surrounding areas on Tuesday 8th. Very heavy rains expected in Telangana, adjoining South Chattisgarh. Hyderabad and Ramagundam can get heavy showers on 8th and 9th. 
Similarly, an UAC form s at 500 hp level off the TN coast on Wednesday. Coastal AP and North coastal TN ( including Chennai) can expect showers on Wednesday and Thursday.

4. UAC over Central UP will move eastwards along the trough in the North. Heavy rains expected in Eastern UP on Tuesday/Wednesday. From Thursday, Heavy showers restricted to Northern Bengal and North Bangladesh. NE states benefit from the UAC 

The Super Typhoon Noeguri is now heading to Make Landfall over Sothern Japan. It has taken and sucked away major moisture from the Bay region, to prevent any systems formations. It has also kept the axis trough entrenched in the north.
But see the positive view...A pulse from the typhoon can possibly form a Low in the Bay. could be as early as this weekend. And if so, Low can bring rains into the much dried out central regions of India.

Alarmists are propagating very severe drought in India this year...Yes, water levels are low, and 70% of farmlands lack rains and need sowing rains...but, with convertible crops, I would wait and see the progress of rains from 11th July before making a report or committing.


Monsoon performance report will be put up on Wednesday...

Sorry for not keeping commitment yesterday...
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22 comments:

Atul said...

was continuously hitting the vagaries link for your update from yesterday :). I hope some good news for monsoon revival.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

what abt valsad. its too humid here.no rain here

Rajesh Kumar said...

Very detailed and informative..Thanks Rajesh sir

rajesh said...

Sorry Atul

Nilesh: As explained, the off shore trough is set to gain, so would expect the rains to pick up from Tuesday itself, with better intensity this week (compared to last several days).

Pavan: Interior Mah should be getting better rains from this weekend, or Friday. We are banking on the Low coming up in the Bay by Saturday.

Rajesh: Thanks. Would expect Bangalore to continue with the same. Maybe a little more rains on Friday as trough tries to push in..

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Hyderabad received heavy showers yesterday. I hope it will get rains again today as per predictions.

rajesh said...

Tuesday Morning rainfall: Mumbai Colaba 84 mms, Scruz 98 mms and Vagaries 167 mms..

Abhijit said...

Again Heavy Rainfall limited to coast like of 2nd July 2014 !!

Some rainfall ending 8.30am today (08-07-2014):

Vagaries 167mm
Santacruz 98mm
Colaba 84mm
Vihar lake 81mm
Tulshi lake 78mm
Palghar 74mm
Uran 70mm
Thane 48mm
Vasai 37mm
Barvi Dam(Badlapur) 29mm
Panvel & Ambernath 18mm
Ulhasnagar 15mm
Kalyan & Karjat 14mm
Bhivandi 12mm
Khalapur 7mm

Nilesh Ladhad said...

as per your forecast there were few passing shower since morning. now its sunny afternoon here in valsad

Abhijit said...

And this time Konkan is also not spared till yet !

Some huge deficit below till today for the season :

Mahabaleshwar is on deficit by -1134 mms
Bhira is on deficit by -992 mms
Ratnagiri is on deficit by -775 mms

Rest many Konkan towns are deficit by -400 to -600 mms..

And all above stations yet to see their first 100 mms in 24hrs period !

From Mahabalehswar & Bhira deficit figures one can know how the western ghats belt are getting rains since of SWM arrival .. So how can waterfall get start ??

Unseen condition of Koyna ever in history !! Must watch video : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIzrEINwUSQ

sset said...

From tomorrow and entire week MAHA and Mumbai may see extreme rains. Guess entire Mumbai deficient may wipe out. Entire Mumbai/Navi Mumbai has become dense green with huge tree canopies...

Rajesh Kumar said...

Bangalore is cool and calm with max 26-27. Some passing showers..

Atul said...

No sorry sir.. its privilege to read your blogs and get to know how monsoon works. Reading your blog is treat for monsoon lovers :). It just shows how people are eagerly waiting for your views.

Pune and western ghats are still dry. As Abhijit mentioned deficit in ghat area is huge. When can we see full force monsoon in ghat area? Is it possible to cover this deficit monsoon?

Vinod said...

Very Heavy rains since last 45 minutes here

Vinod said...

It should be 100mm+ in last 1.5 hours.

SVT said...

Finally it feels like Monsoon. Iteresting that last few days it has rained most in Mumbai on west coast. Given next 2 weeks rain forecast Mumbai will get normal quota of July rains. I seems Friday could be heaviest rain.

sam khan said...

Mumbai once again getting battered by torrential rain's

Atul said...

@SVT Is it raining on entire west coast like kokan, goa or just mumbai?

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit said...

Some Konkan station rainfall till 5.30pm today :

Colaba 74mm
Panjim 60mm
Santacruz 40mm
Mahabaleshwar 20mm
Alibaug 12mm
Ratnagiri 9mm
Dahanu 5mm

Abhijit said...

If we look at trend coastal areas are getting good rains. Then interior Konkan, Dam & Western ghats are having very less rain than normal..

Then western area of lee ward districts are having negligible rain and drought prone eastern side of lee ward district are again having good rain with daily TS from last 3 days..

Now for ex :

Pune July avg : 170mms and has got just 0.7mm in first 9 days of July.

Indapur taluka in SE Pune district July avg is 63mm but have got 76 mms in last 2 days so 120% of normal July avg..

Same with Karmala taluka in Solapur dist :

Karmala taluka in Solapur district July normal average rainfall is 97mm

And now last 3 days rainfall :

32mm on 07 July
51mm on 08 July
50mm on 09 july

So 133mms in 3 days

So rainfall is 141% normal of average !!

sset said...

And our own Mumbai has almost reached 600mm in just few days, what was 80mm till june has become 600mm in just 1 week. Next few days most blogs have predicted 400-500mm in 2-3 days. Mumbai and so as MAHA will become normal... Navi Mumbai Kharghar PandavKada waterfalls in full glory... extreme greenery...

sset said...

readers are correct except Mumbai-MAHA - other coastal areas like KAR,KER no rain?? Why? BANG also no rain.. BBMP has not planted any trees for last 3 years in Bangalore -- becoming barren...