Sunday, July 27, 2014



Mumbai: With rainfall 24 hrs ended Monday morning at 143 mms for Scruz, 81 mms at Colaba and 86 mms at Vagaries... and intermittent rain on Monday bringing another 70 mms or more, local flooding precaution to be taken

Posted Sunday Night:
BB-5 Persists, and possibly will strengthen at the 700 hp level. Weakening above this level. 
As BB-5 tracks W/NW, it will tilt W/SW with height, and the entire upper trough will attract moisture into the Northern Maharashtra and South Gujarat coast.

Heavy precipitation on Monday along the Northern parts Konkan and upto Anand coast in Gujarat. Morning showers in Surat and North Konkan. Surat can get showers on Monday , and accumulate rains upto 50 mms.
Heavy showers in Vidharbh, Odisha, Telengana and AP.

Regions North of Mumbai likely to get more rains. Intermittent thunder showers in Mumbai with rains getting very heavy at times. Another 50-70 mms possible on Monday 28th, and Mumbai may be within reach of the wettest July ever...!

If Tulsi Lake (supplying to Mumbai) gets over 50 mms on Sunday night, good chances of it overflowing !                                         

click on Picture        

Posted Sunday afternoon: BB-5 Descends to sea level. A surprise surge (its called "sympathy wave or sympathy formation) occurs across the latitude on west coast. This normally occurs when the system crosses land and tracks inwards.
This one is quick....!!


Flash News: A "strip" of Cloud heads for Mumbai. As on 1.30 pm IST, Northern areas have got more rains than South Mumbai. Northern suburbs till 1.30 pm have receieved average 35-40 mms , while South Mumabi has measured 15 mms average.

27 comments:

sset said...

Navi Mumbai may have crossed 100mm raining non stop since yesterday night...

SVT said...

Once again all forecasters caught napping with surprise rains. It seems mumbai will get very heavy rains next 48 hours.

khan gazanfar said...

How long it will last sir?

rajesh said...

What is a Sympathy Low or wave ? :-
this was explained earlier, in vagaries blog, but again: When a Low/depression forms in the Bay, there are many occasions when another Low or a "weak horizontal" trough forms along the same latitude along the west coast. The Low or trough is called "sympathy Low" or "Sympathy wave' This occurs when certain conditions are fulfilled. Exact upper level pressures should be almost at same readings,at least till the Central Mah areas to bring in a strong west wind surge. Today, BB-5 upper level UAC is circling over Mah as its Western half North winds.At 500 level, it has deepened fast.

deepak said...

way off earlier predictions! no sun, pouring here in bandra west, at least 50 mm for sure till 14.55

Ashish said...

Heavy rains at Powai since last 2 hours..

paulodon said...

heavy rains in thane.... its already rained 75 mm till 3.45 pm and still counting.....

sset said...

When are rains likely to stop? More than 24hrs of non stop torrential rains over Navi Mumbai has flooded many parts of Belapur? Very windy and dark.

sadeqeen said...

Waiting for updates on total rainfall in mumbai so far and also lakes level. Ideally please try to post once a week.

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir whats your next week i mean for monday ,tuesday n wednesday forcaste

Nilay Wankawala said...

Hope rains have been there in lake areas too much needed.

sset said...

Navi Mumbai no respite from rains - seems seasons highest which was not forcasted?? Tommorow trains may cancel..pouring like waterfalls..Heavy rains over coastal KAR, AP did not happen seems Mumbai consumed all rains..

paulodon said...

Thane crosses 100 mm.....the UAC @ 500 MB can really be stubborn and give a unexpected and decent amount of rain just like the other day in first week of july..:)

Tyrone said...

Rajesh wat abt BB5's effects on Sindh / Karachi ?

Junaid said...

New Panvel has received 148 mm mm since morning 8:30 am till 11:30 pm.

sset said...

Again lashing torrential over Navi Mumbai - nothing less than cyclonic storm. Wettest july.. Apparently Kerala - is towards deficient rain.. Wondering why can't such BB cross TN/KAR/KER (neither during SW nor NE monsoons...) always affinity is towards MAHA,GUJ,MP,ORISSA (MAHA being maximum)

Mumbai all water falls/beaches dangerous now..
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/City/Mumbai/In-rains-falls-and-beaches-are-deceptively-dangerous/articleshow/39127301.cms

Abhijit said...

Heavy rain lashes around Mumbai region..

Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (28-07-2014):

Vihar lake(Mumbai) & Palghar 185
Thane 183
Tulshi lake(Mumbai) 176 (Tulshi is smallest lake of all is overflown today as 100% full now)
Panvel 173
Santacruz 143
Vasai 125
Barvi Dam(Badlapur) 112
Ulhasnagar 106
Bhivandi 100
Ambernath 98
Karjat 89
Kalyan 87
Colaba 81
Uran 62
Murbad 47
Shahapur 28


Mumbai water supplying lake rainfall for today in mms :

Tansa 67
Modak sagar 60
Bhatsa 45
Vaitarna 36
Middle Vaitarna 31


Ghat rainfall ending 8.30am today:

Mulshi 168
Lonavala 150
Mahabaleshwar & Koyna 126
Walvan,Lonavala 112

Shripad Nadiger said...

Rains have decreased considerably...here in Lower Parel, South Mumbai.

KHYATI PANDIT said...

can somebody put up as how much percent the lakes of mumbai are empty nw leaveing aside tulsi lake which is full nw.n can any body put up details as hw much is the barvidam full

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir what is your forcast for tuesday,wednesday n thursday

SVT said...

Heavier rain has shifted to south gujarat region.

Hrishikesh said...

it is raining near andheri,western suburbs of mumbai but not as much as yesterday a constant moderate drizzle

rajesh said...

khyati:The image and picture of lakes' % is in this very article that you have commented on !!...did you not read it ?
sset: 179 mms of rain in Navi Mumbai till Monday morning...

Abhijit said...

Khyati : Barvi dam(Badlapur) is on 40% as on today.

Shripad Nadiger said...

After a break of few hours...heavy rains have begun again here in Mira Road, North Mumbai.

sset said...

Rajesh sir has educated us with many weather terms, educative diagrams..

Myself was wondering "hpa" atmospheric pressure. It is "hectopascal". 500hpa has special significance in meteorology.

Again deadly non stop rains have started over Navi Mumbai. IMD has put red alert over konkan for next 3 days - so no respite??? Just like science can deflect asteroid hitting earth-probably one day science can change route of BB depressions ->atlest 50% SE India, rest to other parts of India. TN /Rayalseema/Sri Lanka are in worst drought

Vijayanand said...

KRS at 108 feet and filling fast.

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-karnataka/steady-inflow-increases-waterlevel-at-krs/article6247618.ece