Saturday, October 19, 2013

First 70 SWM Toppers for the entire Season...2013...Winner  Patgaon !...See Pradeep's Page for complete List...


After 120 days of gruelling battle, the winner is Patgaon from
Maharashtra. it manages to beat Hulikal from Karnataka by just 100 mm.
The notable records in this season are Patgaon has got 5881 mm
rainfall in July alone. A data which has to be noted in your record
books. Similarly, Amgaon in Karnataka has got 5097 mm in July. 


But it was a bad year for both Cherrapunji and Mawsynaram. They finished very
lowly in the toppers list this SWM.



Vagaries withdrew the SWM up to Maharashtra on the18th (Map put up on Thursday), and IMD has also withdrawn on similar lines on the 19th of October.

Now, actually, the Monsoon axis has slid down South fast. 
A low has formed off TN coast, at 11N and 85E. Embedded in the East coast trough. This is expected to become well marked on Sunday and track towards North TN coast, and strike by Tuesday, 22nd or 23rd.
With an UAC off the South Karnataka coast, the axis now joins the 2 systems.

The Monsoon axis runs from Goa SE to Chennai and into the SE Bay.
Seeing the East winds along the axis, I would expect the SWM to withdraw from the country on Monday, and with the change of winds, simultanious commencement of NEM on 21st October. Vagaries first announcement ( in NEM Watch -2 dt. 3rd October) of NEM date of 20th October proves correct.
 .
Chennai, as forecasted yesterday, will get a thunderstorm on Sunday Night, heralding the NEM. Rains expected to continue next couple of days.

Heavy thunderstorm expected in Kolkata on Sunday night/Monday. Day will be humid at 32c.

A low is expected to form off the South Karnatak coast in the Arabian Sea around the 23rd/24th of October. Expected to track N/NW, and become well marked...and move along the Goa/Mah. coastline...Mumbai can expect some showers on Friday 25th and Saturday 26th October. Showers also expected in Goa. 
This Low may turn out to be counter productive for the NEM till the low exists. But, in any case, we are expecting the NEM to under perform till October end.....further up date for Mumbai and NEM on Monday, 21st.

And , this is the result of the SWM rushing South, heat wise...
On Saturday 19th October: 
Hottest in Asia: Makkah  41.2c
Hottest in Pakistan: Turbat  41c, Karachi 37.0c
Hottest in India : Bhuj 37.0c, Mumbai 36.5c.

22 comments:

paulodon said...

but..Some models are predicting a uac tracking more closer to mumbai predicting a heavy rain in and around mumbai...? around 26th/27th..

gb said...

Hi till when will the rains continue in mumbai ? Will the low drift n west into the Arabian Sea ?

gb said...

Also by when do we expect dry weather again over eatern India (kolkata)

sam khan said...

Mumbai can expect some really good rains on 26th and 27th of october,could be in the form of strong thunderstorms.

rajesh said...

paulodon/gb: please put your names, its easier to inter act...
forecast models can change..i feel the track will be along the coast till Mah as described...
Kolkata gets thunder showers on Sunday /Monday..and monsoon withdraws after that..

sset said...

west coast low over MAHA will again bring NEM to grinding halt.. hope this will not turn out to be GUJ scenario....

karthikjohnny said...

typical NEM style rains started in chennai from last nite..

gb said...

Thanks for the input. This is Gaurav. Trying to publish name but not happening.

Abhijit said...

@ Gaurav . Please follow follwowing steps !!

1. Select Blogger option which is located on left corner of screen at the top of page !!

2. Then after clicking on blogger you can see your gb or name profile on right corner of screen at the top of page !!

3. Then click on gb or name you have given there,next you can see an link of blogger profile so click on it then blogger user profile will open then at right hand side you can click on edit user profile !!

4. Then in edit user profile you can view an identity section so in that you can give the your name in Display name column.

5. Then save the profile by clicking on save profile button which is located at downside of page after scrolling the page. So next time when you post comment then your provided display name will be visible..

gaurav said...

Hi Abhijit. Thanks for the help. Also can someone advise if accuweather is the most accurate for daily citywise forecast for India or any other website ?

emkay said...

Is it normal for Oman to get thundershowers at this time of the year. Referring to IR Map at 22 hrs Sunday.

karthikjohnny said...

non stop rains in chennai.
city records close to 80mm

Nilesh Ladhad said...

its cloudy in sambalpur. any chance of rain.

Abhijit said...

IMD states today dated (21-10-2013) that :The Southwest Monsoon has further withdrawn from remaining parts of the country, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Thus, it has withdrawn from the entire country today, the 21st October 2013.

Simultaneously, the northeast Monsoon rains have commenced over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka on today, the 21st October 2013.

sam khan said...

Parts of Maharashtra including coastal areas of konkan , Mumbai will get some share from north east monsoon this weekend.

sset said...

Bangalore did not receive any rain last week, but forecast was heavy rain??? Also it seems SE monsoon will vanish - but clouds are also floating east into Orissa/WB ??? NEM system is yet to form.

Mohsin mulla said...

rajesh bhai,
its possible mumbai or north konkan receive nort east monsoon shower.i think all module pridicted shower or thunder storm in this weekend..

Abhijit said...

Today first cool morning was experienced of the season in Badlapur with ground fog..

Abhijit said...

Nashik chilled today as min temp was 14.6c there. Pune also chilly today as min temp was 16.4c.. Mumbai SCZ cool as min temp 21c today.

SVT said...

It seems rain for Mumbai this weekend could be bit heavier than we first thought.

Unknown said...

all weather sites are predicting strong thunderstorms in mumbai do we really expect them after withdrawal?

Hrishikesh said...

the above comment is by hrishikesh