Tuesday, October 22, 2013

3 Day Mumbai Forecast tonite by 11 pm IST....

Posted Wednesday day Night @ 1030 pm IST:
WML now partially inland around 14N. Tracking NW, expected to re emerge in Arabian Sea from the Central Konkan region, South of Mumbai.
In effect, the Thursday and Friday forecast mentioned for all regions in blog holds good.

In addition, as the system now may come to Central Konkan, some rains also expected on Friday thru Sunday in Surat and Bharuch.

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Posted Tuesday Night @ 1030 pm IST:

1. -The Well marked Low, at 1004 mb, has moved North, and as on Tuesday evening , is located W/NW of Chennai at 13N and 82E. Convective clouding is seen in the North and NW of the system, and minimum shear.
Will cross land by Wednesday at around 15N. Chennai will witness absolute west winds, when the system crosses land, and will be an indicator.
System will move Westwards along 15N line, and cross into the Arabian Sea at Goa.....

Chennai will get sporadic showers till Friday, when the system crosses into the Arabian sea..around 20-30 mms /day.....

2. -This system is expected to track Westwards along the 15N line from Wednesday thru Thursday. It will cross into the Arabian Sea as a  Low thru Goa. 
The WML will then move North along the coast, and as per the indications today, will fizzle out South of Saurashtra by 28th of October...but it  will keep the west coast trough "alive " till 30th October.

3. -A new Low ( BB-16)  forms in the Bay about the 12N line around 2nd November. Embedded in an Easterly trough, it will strengthen into a WML/Depression and move West. Should strike the TN coast by the 4th of November, bringing heavy rains....more follow up later.

What to Expect:-
Wednesday 23rd:  Heavy rains in Davengere and Chitradurg ( Kar) regions, heavy rains in Anantapur (AP) region, and moderate rains in Gadag, Belgaum and Raichur region on Wednesday. In Maharashtra, South Madhya Mah regions get some showers. (Pandharpur and Solapur). Some parts of Marathwada also see showers. 
Rains again for Belgaum.

Thursday 24th, as the system moves North, heavy rains expected in N.I. Karnataka. Rainfall moves into Goa and South Konkan. Madhya Mah regions of Kolhapur, Sangli and 

Pune get showers. Mahableshwar will get heavy showers with thick fog.
Vengurla can expect heavy showers. Interior North Konkan gets thunder showers.

Friday 25th: Low/WLM comes off the Mah coast. All region of Maharashtra gets moderate to heavy showers. Mumbai and North Konkan can get thunder showers. Aurangabad region can expect thunder showers. Heavy rains and thunder showers in Goa. 

Saturday 26th: Rains throughout Maharashtra and Southern Saurashtra Peninsula. 

Mumbai:
Wednesday 23rd: Partly cloudy towards afternoon and evening. Warm stuffy at night with night temperatures around 26c.

Thursday 24th: Partly cloudy, and thundery developments seen in the Eastern skies. Thundery developments with showers in some Eastern outer townships.

Friday 25th: cloudy and windy. Thunder showers expected in evening. Around 5 -10 mms expected.
Outer townships get thunder showers. Northern townships can get some heavy showers. 

Saturday 26th: Overcast and cloudy skies with showers. Cooler day. Evening thunder shower possible, with some regions getting 25 mms of rain.

Pune can get showers on Thursday 24th evening, with thunder. Friday 25th will also be cool and cloudy, with heavy showers in many parts.


Correction "Chennai will get West Winds" typo error ...Thanks for pointing out Viravanalluran



14 comments:

gaurav said...

Pl let us know until when are the rains expected to continue until in Mumbai. Thanks

sset said...

As predicted by IMD (predicted heavy rains) no heavy rains in south India???

Viravanalluran said...

Yes Sir, But Chennai is at South to the point of crossing and Chennai will be experiencing WEST winds NOT east.[if every thing goes accordingly]
Now it self Chennai at 0.3km witness NWly wind and at 3.3 dead westerly.

rajesh said...

Viravanalluran: yes mistake in typing...Thanks

parshuram shinde said...

I think low pressure move on goa... And then
near mumbai....

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Hi,

This is tragedy as far as TN Coast is considered.This is becoming a feature every time a low is formed moves more in to west central bay all the rains are pushed north of TN..

we have to wait for it to dissipate and wait for another low.

regards
krishna

sset said...

Exactly Krishnakumar Balasu - similar point was myself as conveying - infact present rains cannot be considered as NEM - rains are entering orissa, chattisgarh and moving west into MAHA. IT seems tail end SWM has again activated. We do not see any clouds in South east bay which in case of normal NEM moves towards Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. But totally opposite - rains have eluded TN and Sri Lanka. Infact many theories suggesting weakening NEM in recent years - resulting in aridity of TN, Rayalseema, SE interior KAR. As you see we need to wait for November (remember 2012 - november was totally dry - after Nilam rains totally decreased over TN)

sset said...

Exactly Krishnakumar Balasu - similar point was myself as conveying - infact present rains cannot be considered as NEM - rains are entering orissa, chattisgarh and moving west into MAHA. IT seems tail end SWM has again activated. We do not see any clouds in South east bay which in case of normal NEM moves towards Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. But totally opposite - rains have eluded TN and Sri Lanka. Infact many theories suggesting weakening NEM in recent years - resulting in aridity of TN, Rayalseema, SE interior KAR. As you see we need to wait for November (remember 2012 - november was totally dry - after Nilam rains totally decreased over TN)

chandan kulkarni said...

yes sir.Your prediction was right.Yesterday Belgaum got good rains with lot of thunder.

chandan kulkarni said...

yes sir.Your prediction was right.Yesterday Belgaum got good rains with lot of thunder.

Hrishikesh said...

will the showers in mumbai be more heavier than expected?

sridharraj said...

i guess the whole thing is fizzling out...mumbai may not receive much of thunder or rain as predicted...just a odd shower.... here and there...

sam khan said...

Well if the humidity levels remain on the lower side' then i feel there will be hardly any rain in Mumbai, may be light shower.

Hrishikesh said...

could it become strong again on entering Arabian sea