Thursday, October 24, 2013

Posted on Saturday Night: Now,  weakened to a Low pressure, the system moved North, and is located at 20N and 81E..at the conjunction of the Mah/Chattisgarh/AP borders.
The trough still runs from Assam to TN thru the coastal States. The system is detached from it.

Posted Saturday Morning: Heavy rains in Kolkata from Friday evening.Heavy Rain amounts sent by Santosh from Kolkata:

And as Abhijit  puts it
"NEM is obeying as per it's name. Producing more rain in NE and E India than actual SE India"
Some amounts from NE States from Arpit: 
Sechu- 314 mm
Shyamakhunta-Agro- 193 mm
Nalgonda- 186 mm
Bhongir- 135 mm
Jangaon- 122 mm
Kadamdeuli- 118 mm
Tamluk- 111 mm
Outer townships (Eastern) of Mumbai got light rains on Friday evening...Mahableshwar and Lonaval also received showers...
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WML lies at 77E and 15N, neat the N.I. Karnataka/AP border..and moving W/NW..the eastern trough is dragged westwards and tends to weaken now.

Mumbai:
Friday 25th: Partly cloudy, becoming cloudy by evening. Light rain expected at night. Rain amount will be up to 5 mms by Saturday morning. Day will be warm at 33c.
Winds from NE, but becoming East by night.
Outer townships getting light to moderate rains from evening, Eastern townships specially.

Saturday 26th: S winds in the day. Cloudy and  surprise showers possible. Some sharp evening showers in parts of city. Light rains on Saturday night.( 10-12 mms)
Outer townships, specially the Eastern townships, will get some heavy showers.(10-15 mms).


 Sunday 27th: Cloudy to overcast. Cooler winds blowing. Morning Showers in parts of city. 


Pune:
Friday: Cloudy with light to moderate rain showers by evening. Cooler night.


Saturday 26th/Sunday 27th will be cloudy with showers in several parts of the city.

Surat and Bharuch get light to medium showers on Saturday evening and Sunday, most likely after the noon time.

Medium to heavy rainfall expected in Aurangabad on Saturday/Sunday.

Heavy showers expected in Kolkata on Friday 25th evening and night...maybe into Saturday morning...around 25-30 mms.
Rains decreasing from Sunday.

23 comments:

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Rajesh Sir,
Is low stationary on AP(Nortth coastal, telangana) regions ? These regions getting heavy to very heavy rains from last 3 days. Ongole received 31cms, Kakinada 22cms, Vizag 10cm.

Even Hyderabad getting continous showers.

Anantpur region didn't get heavy rains as per Vagaries predictions. Its northern parts of AP got and getting heavy rains.

How long this System will stay on these regions ?

rajesh said...

D.Joshi: yes you are correct. Vagaries had expected the system to move west along 15N line, and bring rains along the path. The system however remained quasi stationary for 2 days, due to high pressure region in North..Will move Nw and weaken...your region of Hyderabad will continue to get 20-25 mms daily till Saturday (good rain friday night), and reduce from Sunday.
All AP figures are put up in Flash Snippet on blog.

Hrishikesh said...

Lightning seen in eastern skies of Mumbai suburbs thunder heard but still no rain

sam khan said...

LOT OF LIGHTNING FLASHES SEEN IN VASAI

gaurav said...

Will the system move towards the north east as predicted by imd ?

sset said...

As rains elude Tamil Nadu - many places continue to remain hot (above normal temperatures) in range 37-38 degrees.

shrenit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sset said...

Probable desertification of South east India????? slow progress on way....

rajesh said...

sset: no question of desertification...lets not go to extreme events...an easterly wave will bring rains to tn. TN was expected to be low and dull thru October.

rajesh said...

Joshi: Hyderabad gets 40 mms till today morning..system quasi stationary still..surprising !May move now..but a ridge is preventing and causing resistance.

Abhijit said...

@ SSET. SE India structure especially interior TN region is an semi-arid region so while in SWM it is on lee ward side.. So very less SWM rain there. And low travels as per monsoon axis position. So mostly SWM low din't reach in S .India. Even Maharashtra also hardly have any lows! All from MP mostly. And actual TN monsoon rains are in Nov & Dec known as NEM. As Oct is an transistion period from SWM to NEM so many times cyclone or low from trough gives rain to East & NE India. So in Nov & Dec SE India will get it's share of rainfall !!

abizer Kachwala said...

yesterday north konkan recieved very good thunder showers ,rajesh sir you were right.
rain:
roha:19mm
nagothane:25.80mm
pen:9mm
ratnagiri:29mm

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Rajesh's prediction about Hyderabad came true. It recieved good rains on Friday night. No rains since Saturday morning.

Hyderabad received 238mm in Oct. 4 times than normal rainfal.

sset said...

Joshiji rains are more towards northern AP/orissa/WB side - against principles of NEM. Rains over Rayalseema/Anantpur/Chitoor is very much required as we know (myself also from AP)- these places suffer from serial droughts. Main concern is absolute deviation from TN. 2012 case - if it would not have been "Nilam" in oct 31 - TN would have ended in terrible droughts.. after Nilam rains stopped over TN - Nov/Dec was dry and NEM ended.. Now also eluding. Guess whatever is happening now is similar to Gujarat - 7 days torrential rains... "RAINING ELSEWHERE" ... even NEM cannot fulfill that 7 days intensity...

Pavan said...

Mr sset hope u remember me ur comment provoked me to comment after almost a year i am commenting on blog can u briefly explain how south southeast india would be a desert and how THAR turns to be a evergreen area
wud it happen in due course r had any specified time period
TN usually never miss nem

baboo chachoo said...

There will be surprise showers in Mumbai HA, there was not even a cloud in Mumbai, what a prediction. Ha

baboo chachoo said...

earlier the prediction was 25 mms later 7 mms what came down 0 mms in Mumbai HA

Hrishikesh said...

Sir can we have some more refreshed details on Mumbai weather up ahead ur thunder and lightning forecast was right but we did not recieve any rain maybe the eastern suburbs got light rain but no rain in western suburbs

baboo chachoo said...

there was no rain anywhere in mumbai not even trace

Abhijit said...

Only Karjat was lucky from last 2 days !!Karjat recorded 42mm rain ending 8.30am today. And 5mm ending yesterday 8.30am.

Abhijit said...

Ratnagiri recorded 27mm rain ending 8.30am today.

Hrishikesh said...

Mumbai hot stuffy and humid but no rain

Hrishikesh said...

Mumbai hot stuffy and humid but no rain