Sunday, October 27, 2013

Posted on Tuesday Night @ 12 Midnight: 
A Low pressure may form off the AP coast by Wednesday evening/night. Short lived, it will move west into AP coast and bring rains there on 31st October and 1st November.


A WD (could be numbered if required) will cross into North Pakistan hills and plains on 4th November. WD -1 will move into India, i.e. Kashmir, HP, Utterakhand and North Punjab on 5th and 6th November.

An Exhaustive and Informative Report on " North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season" prepared by Vagarian Santosh Subramanian deserves a place in Vagaries. 
Placed in the Links on the right side of this Page >>>>>>    >>>>>>

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On Monday 28th October, Hottest in Asia: Nawabshah (Pakistan) 38c.Hottest in India: Bhuj at 36.4c. Surat was 35.6c.
Lowest temperature in Northern plains: Nazibabad ( UP) 12.5c. In the Southern Mountains, Ooty was 8.2c.

Developed on Sunday,a weak east-west upper air trough, hardly sustainable and off the South Konkan coast, is perpetuating rains in South Konakan and pushing some moisture up into Central Konkan and interior North Konkan. 

Tuesday 29th, would expect the precipitation to gradually recede Southwards. 
An additional day of evening clouds and maybe some light rains in Pune on Tuesday. Clouds accumulating on Tuesday in Mahableshwar with some showers.
Mumbai region will be dry and hot.

We have heard of damage to crops and harvested crops in Ratnagiri region from the recent rains. 
Would expect the last of the rains on Tuesday. some pockets in Kolhapur and Belgaum regions maystill get the odd shower on Tuesday.

Wednesday 30th, rains will be restricted to S.I.Karnataka. Mysore, Kodagu and Chamrajnagar region can expect good showers. Intrior TN can expect precipitation. A LWD seems to concentrate around Thanjavur - Madurai region.

Thursday 31st: Belgaum or nearby vicinty can expect a thunder shower by afternoon. Hubli Dhawar belt too can get the odd shower. Thundershower for Bangalore in the night.
More rainfall in Kerala and Nilgiri regions of TN.

An Easterly wave may show up around the 2nd November, to strengthen the NEM for Chennai...to be closely followed.

A WD will move thru Upper regions of Pakistan and Kashmir next 2 days. Upper and middle reaches in Kashmir  (Gulmarg/Pahalgam) and HP (Kalpa/Keylong) will get their first snowfall of the season.

Mumbai, New Delhi and Kolkata will be clear and sunny. 
New Delhi next 3 nights will be pleasant at around 16c.
Kolkata wll see a slight nip at 18/19c. But Mumbai will not drop below 22/23c. Though Mumbai will be warm (33/34c), with N/NE winds will get less humid.
With a clear sky, we see Pune dipping to 16c by Wednesday morning.


Sindh (Pakistan) nights will remain above normal till Wednesday night. 
Karachi will be lightly cloudy on Tuesday. Days will be 33c and nights 23c. Night temperatures will dip from Thursday morning.

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Posted Sunday Night:
Severe Storm Approaches London:..see International Page
With Live Updates available

Yesterday's ...Heavy Saturday Rains.. Kolkata Rains..a Video from Santosh

7 comments:

Khyati Pandit said...

sir what are your next few days predictions for mumbai as yesterday whole day was so stuffy n hot humid with no breeze or rain is this due to the uac in arabian or it has fizzel out

baboo chachoo said...

nice video of normal rains nothing unusual happened in kolkata.

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Hi Rajesh,

Guess this WML which has fizzled out has changed directions and did not merge in to Arabian sea.

Anyways that should spell good signs for TN should see some revival in NEM rains.


Regards
krishna

Abhijit said...

Just now very Heavy Rain lashed Badlapur for 40mins with strong gusty winds from NW.

Ron said...

very foggy since morning in mumbai

Abhijit said...

Dense FOG engulfed Badlapur from 4am onward so visibility was below 100mtr till 8am today.

santosh subramanian said...

yup baboo sir