A Typical Image of a 2 day "mini break Monsoon" scene mentioned yesterday*, with Cb clouds popping up at random in Central regions...
Posted Saturday Night 5th October:
The Arabian Sea UAC off the Goa/S.Konkan coast effect is seen with these rainfall figures (in cms) as on Saturday Morning:
The Rainfall was very heavy, as seen from amounts sent by Pradeep John and available on his Page.
Besides, Abhijit has put some amounts of today's rainfall in the comments also.
Besides, very heavy rainfall of 201 mms in Allahbad and 89 mms in Jhansi and 59 in Varanasi, was the effect of BB-14 floating Northwards.
Delhi was cool and cloudy with the day's high of 26c being at 8c below normal at Palam and S'Jung. But several spots like Lodhi Road, University and Ayanagar were at 25c. Faridabad too was 25c.
Delhi NCR may just get the shower in pats on Sunday 6th. Rainfall decreasing from Monday.
Some models show the UAC from central axis spilling some rains in Delhi and North MP areas from later next week. But it depends on the UAC position and stregnth, so we will monitor the system after it forms. Otherwise, call for withdrawal !
*BB-14,now in the foothills, will create a mini "break Monsoon" in central India and interior peninsula. But only till Tuesday 8th.
The axis on Tuesday "frees itself" and moves into the central India area, in the Gujarat/MP/Chattisgarh line.
But, it is very possible that an UAC may form in the axis in the Southern MP region by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Hence, after subdued rainfall in the NW and Central India and interor peninsula on Sunday /Monday, rains increase in MP and North interior Maharashtra again from Tuesday.
Surat and Bharuch, wait for the UAC in Central India to form, and get the rainfall increasing from Tuesday 8th and Wednesday 9th.
A low pressure forms in the Andaman region by Monday, 7th October. Seeing the present winds and upper jet streams, i would expect the system to track NW towards the AP/Odisha coast. Should be at least of Depression strength on reaching the coast by the 13/14th October.
The west coast trough weakening after the UAC has crossed the Goa coast, should spell well for Chennai. City may see an increase in its thunder showers activity from Tuesday and continue in the week.
However, the winds would remain W/SW. We will wait for the axis to slide down and track the outcome of the low/depression coming next week to determine the date of the NEM. Generally set in not before 19th/20th at least.
Parts of Mumbai had some thunder showers on Saturday. Bhandup 37 mms, Borivali 36 mms, Kandivali measured 14 mms, Mulund 12 mms, Dharavi 10 mms, Dadar 7 mms,
Mumbai will be warm and partly cloudy with sunny spells on Sunday. Thunder developments possible in some parts. Northern and Eastern outer townships can get a thunder shower.
Monday and Tuesday will see mild thunder showers in parts of city in the evening. Heavier showers in Northern and Eastern outer townships.
Pune may get the thundery developments on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday with the thunder shower in some parts by evening.
As we anticipate an UAC in Central India, Monsoon remains in Mumbai/Pune throughout next week.
And oh yes ! Kolkata, just continue with your Thunder showers popping up in parts of city, some severe till Wednesday at least !
Very detailed and specific account of the Goa SWM season here on Weather in Goa blog.
Karachi has been hot and sizzlng at 40c. Though Saturday and Sunday may see some relief of a few degrees, the North winds will bring very hot conditions to Karachi next week again.
For Kathmandu, October has started of rainy and cool. With 17 mms already measured, the capital has next week too, for thunder showers are expected to form for the next 4/5 days at least. Nights will be around 16/17c though. Neeraj will tell us of the latest.