Saturday, October 05, 2013

See rare Arcus clouds formation over South Mumbai on Friday evening..Mumbai Page
A Typical Image of a 2 day "mini break Monsoon" scene mentioned yesterday*, with Cb clouds popping up at random in Central regions...


Posted Saturday Night 5th October:
The Arabian Sea UAC off the Goa/S.Konkan coast effect is seen with these rainfall figures (in cms) as on Saturday Morning: 
The Rainfall was very heavy, as seen from amounts sent by Pradeep John and available on his Page.
Besides, Abhijit has put some amounts of today's rainfall in the comments also.

Besides, very heavy rainfall of 201 mms in Allahbad and 89 mms in Jhansi and 59 in Varanasi, was the effect of BB-14 floating Northwards.

Delhi was cool and cloudy with the day's high of 26c being at 8c below normal at Palam and S'Jung. But several spots like Lodhi Road, University and Ayanagar were at 25c. Faridabad too was 25c.
Delhi NCR may just get the shower in pats on Sunday 6th. Rainfall decreasing from Monday.
Some models show the UAC from central axis spilling some rains in Delhi and North MP areas from later next week. But it depends on the UAC position and stregnth, so we will monitor the system after it forms. Otherwise, call for withdrawal !

*BB-14,now in the foothills, will create a mini "break Monsoon" in central India and interior peninsula. But only till Tuesday 8th.
The axis on Tuesday "frees itself" and moves into the central India area, in the Gujarat/MP/Chattisgarh line.

But, it is very possible  that an UAC may form in the axis in the Southern MP region by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Hence, after subdued rainfall in the NW and Central India and interor peninsula  on Sunday /Monday, rains increase in MP and North interior Maharashtra again from Tuesday.

Surat and Bharuch, wait for the UAC in Central India to form, and get the rainfall increasing from Tuesday 8th and Wednesday 9th.

A low pressure forms in the Andaman region by Monday, 7th October. Seeing the present winds and upper jet streams, i would expect the system to track NW towards the AP/Odisha coast. Should be at least of Depression strength on reaching the coast by the 13/14th October.

The west coast trough weakening after the UAC has crossed the Goa coast, should spell well for Chennai. City may see an increase in its thunder showers activity from Tuesday and continue in the week.
However, the winds would remain W/SW. We will wait for the axis to slide down and track the outcome of the low/depression coming next week to determine the date of the NEM. Generally set in not before 19th/20th at least.

Parts of Mumbai had some thunder showers on Saturday. Bhandup 37 mms, Borivali 36 mms, Kandivali measured 14 mms, Mulund 12 mms, Dharavi 10 mms, Dadar 7 mms, 

Mumbai will be warm and partly cloudy with sunny spells on Sunday. Thunder developments possible in some parts. Northern and Eastern outer townships can get a thunder shower.
Monday and Tuesday will see mild thunder showers in parts of city in the evening. Heavier showers in Northern and Eastern outer townships.
Pune may get the thundery developments on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday with the thunder shower in some parts by evening.

As we anticipate an UAC in Central India, Monsoon remains in Mumbai/Pune throughout next week.

And oh yes ! Kolkata, just continue with your Thunder showers popping up in parts of city, some severe till Wednesday at least !
Very detailed and specific account of the Goa SWM season here on Weather in Goa blog. 

Karachi has been hot and sizzlng at 40c. Though Saturday and Sunday may see some relief of a few degrees, the North winds will bring very hot conditions to Karachi next week again.

For Kathmandu, October has started of rainy and cool. With 17 mms already measured, the capital has next week too, for thunder showers are expected to form for the next 4/5 days at least. Nights will be around 16/17c though. Neeraj will tell us of the latest.

49 comments:

Atul Naik said...

Non stop heavy rains indeed in Goa since Friday evening. June - July like weather. Feel pity for all the tourists, specially those riding hired two wheelers! Only if they knew about the approaching UAC! Rains recorded at Panaji till 5:30 am today 56 mm and continuing.

Vinod said...

No rains in mumbai both on thursday and friday..

sam khan said...

Thursday thunderstorm rains were only in Vasai and surrounding areas like Nala Sopara and Virar, but mumbai was left out.As Mumbai's rains are very unpredictable most of the time, when the rains might turn up in Mumbai .

Abhijit said...

@ Sam . Yes. Mumbai is very unlucky since Aug itself. Aug & Sept saw almost 50% deficit than normal. Mumbai is just getting extended monsoon days instead of an rainy days.. Rest India like Vidarbha, Gujarat, N India like Agra ,UP & NCR region getting some rain also with delayed withdrwal. Now S.Konkan & Goa having heavy rains..

Abhijit said...

Also Sam thursday Nalasopara TS was very localized as Vasai reports 0mm for yesterday 8.30am reading(i.e 4-10-2013)

Abhijit said...

While of BB 13 it rained heavily from Palghar onward to North side in Guj & now UAC of ARB giving rain from Roha, Pune to South side.. So Mumbai is missed by both systems !! Lets hope today atleast some rain comes in Mumbai..

Nimish Thaker said...

Wow!! Break Monsoon like scenario on 5th October! Which means there is more rain to come for North India from SWM. Amazing.

Vinod said...

We got some rain in malad goregaon for around 20 min..with mild thundering..

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

oh no waiting for NEM to commence..keeping my fingers crossed on the onset..

too many UAC forming hindering the withdrawal

sam khan said...

Very heavy thunderstorm in Vasai,for 30 mins , now raining moderately.

sam khan said...

Another 1 hour of heavy rains in Vasai. altogether Vasai received very good rain's.light rain still going on.

sam khan said...

Looks like North east monsoon will have some effect , because of stubborn behaviour of south west monsoon 'withdrawal definately delayed this year, also the UAC formation one after the other, will not allow the monsoon to withdraw, atleast not before next week is out.

Khyati Pandit said...

Sir when is your next forecaste to come.n sir is the uac near goa to give heavy rain to mumbai.in which direction would it track or fizzly out.n what is the withdrawl date of mumbai.because u said it some what in next week

Wasim Athar said...

durga puja is round the corner; we r very concerned pl predict if the to develop low pressure have any effect on w bengal

Abhijit said...

Badlapur had very heavy rain for 1hr period. And then lightning & thundering after the rain.

sset said...

Back to SWM??? Allahabad 200mm, Jhansi, Ratanagiri 100mm.... South India/Sri Lanka no rains...dry continues... Navi Mumbai very cloudy/dark looks like bursts of heavy rains any moment...

Wasim Athar said...

some extremely heavy rains in kolkata frim 330 pm to 500pm

Nimish Thaker said...

The Mumbai radar is stuck at 11:15 UTC. Looks like it will again be out of action for couple of days

abizer Kachwala said...

weather in nagothane[roha]:rain:
roha:87mm
nagothane:91.5mm
pen:65mm

Abhijit said...

Ratnagiri District rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today(05-10-2013)

Chiplun 120.6
Dapoli 129.0
Khed 151.6
Gughagar 93.2
Mandangad 85.0
Ratnagiri 98.7
Sangameshwar 67.2
Rajapur 42.0
Lanja 55.0

Abhijit said...

Sindhudurg district rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today(05-10-2013)

Devgad 65.0
Malwan 43.0
Sawantwadi 41.0
Vengurla 66.8
Kankawali 19.0
Kudal 25.0
Vaibhavwadi 21.0
Dodamarg 46.0

Abhijit said...

Raigad District rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (05-10-2013) :

Alibaug 47.0
Sudhagad 16.0
Mahad 19.0
Mangaon 12.0
Roha 19.0
Poladpur 39.0
Murud 22.0
Shriwardhan 87.0
Mahasala 156.0
Tala 61.0

Abhijit said...

Wishing all Vagarians A Very "HAPPY NAVRATRI" !!

Neeraj said...

yes i will inform.

the start of oct has been cool and rainy - more rains than generally expected for this time of the year. Still under the effect of monsoon, hence its been rainy, and day time max has been below normal but also - night time low has been above normal for the same reason.

i'll wait and see what happens in the next few days. will report again then.

SVT said...

The Bay Depression you expecting on around 15th will strengthen west coast through?

sam khan said...

Morning dark thunderstorm clouds in Vasai, currently the rains are light

Abhijit said...

It's the time for fog season in Badlapur.. As today Dense Fog has engulf Badlapur with visibility reduced to less than 300 meters !!

sam khan said...

Looking at the dense dark clouds in the morning, it looked 'as though' it will pour, but Vasai got light rain for 30 mins comming in from the west.weather has turned very pleasant. but still covered with clouds.

rohitaros said...

Great feat ..5 lakhs and counting .. zooming towards 10 lakhs :)

sam khan said...

Another thunderstorm is getting ready here at Vasai, could be isolated thunderstorm or widespread it has turned dark in the eastern sky.

Nimish Thaker said...

One storm kicked up around Thane and moved in the NE direction. Here at Juhu I saw a CB cloud build up on the Eastern sky and then disappear

Puneet Bangera said...

Had a torrential showers in dombivli at 1:30 pm with gusty winds & with Thundering n Lightning.It lasted for 30 mins and then followed by light showers.
I was completely wet & commuters were caught surprise by this Sudden heavy downpour & gusty wind.

Puneet Bangera said...

yup.Vinod & nimish...the CB clouds developed in thane & then intensified and travelled SE & gave out a torrential rains in Dombivli-Ulhasnagar.Thane got 0.5 mm only as per envirocon.

rajesh said...

svt: The Bay depression will not have effect on west coast trough...the UAC if it forms in central India (the other system i mentioned) can give the west coast trough a push if it moves west (UAC)

sam khan said...

Dry thunderstorm passed over Vasai, with no rain at all.weather is dark n gloomy.

Khyati Pandit said...

sam sir it was not dry storm but a moderate to heavy rain in miraroad for past one hour.is this due to uac in arabian sea or when would it fizzel out or tack to which direction

sam khan said...

@khyati ,Now heavy rain's started in Vasai.

sam khan said...

@khyati plz do not call me sir,call me sam,the only sir we have on this blog is Rajesh sir' from whom we learn about weather .thanks.

Abhijit said...

Badlapur dense foggy ,cool with clear sky.

sam khan said...

@ Abhijit Supprised no rains in badlapur.

Vinod said...

It rained very heavily here in malad this morning for about 40 min.

Abhijit said...

@ Sam. Yes. As per sat image & radar only coastal line from Daman, Dahanu to N.Mumbai was having rain after midnight to morning period. We at inland where having clear from last night itself so was cool with dense fog with visibility just 500meters today. Yesterday it was just 300meters here in Badlapur..

Wasim Athar said...

rajesh sir, kindly give details about the likely track of the developing low pressure in bay, NRL does not even have any indication about its development

sam khan said...

Rajesh, sir why do the thunderstorms that form in the afternoons are dissipating whereas the morning storms are getting heavier.whats the cause behind it?

Abhijit said...

Dahanu continues to be hot spot after BB 13
!! Dahanu recorded massive 128.8mm rain
ending 8.30am today..

Abhijit said...

Mumbai SCZ recorded 18.8mm rain ending
8.30am today. So finally SCZ has received
some moderate shower after long wait !!

sam khan said...

Weather has turned worst very humid after the rains.will there be a thunderstorm later on ...?

Neeraj said...

Monsoon average for kathmandu is 105 days according to our met dept, this year its already 115 days and monsoon is yet to withdraw. Probably 8 to 10 days more for it to withdraw completely, what say rajesh sir ? or is it going to linger for more?

sam khan said...

Tomorrow also , the coastal strip of north Maharashtra might get good rains.