Thursday, October 10, 2013

Severe Cyclone "Phailin"  Cat 3: (10.30 pm IST)

"Phailin", getting stronger by the hour, has reached a stage of Rapid Intensification. The Intensity which was 4.0 at 0000Z has rsen to 6.0 by 1200Z. 
And that is tremendous !
With an well formed eye, 15 kms in diameter, it is but obvious that the central uprising warm air is turbulent, and at the "warm eye" the cloud temperatures in the centre of the system has risen to 0c, while the outer cloud top temperatures are imaged at -80c.

Wind speeds and core pressure indicate a Cat 3 status...Winds around the eye are estimated  at 185 kmph (though DVORAK calculates at 212 kmph). Core pressure is sliding down at astounding speed, is currently estimated at 949 mb.

Now, with core winds of 185 kmph, if the upward warm current mentioned is strong, an outer eye , a circle of severe thunder storms, can form, and "choke " the original eye. In this phase, the cyclone weakens. But, generally, an outer ring can form if the original eye is less than 10 kms in diameter.
Can only re -strengthen if the inner wall is completely wiped out by the stronger outer eye.
But all this can be superbly observed  by a reconnaissance aircraft. 

Located now at 15.5N and 89.5E...
Tracking NW, "Phailin" will move towards the AP/Odisha border. Srikakulam, Vizianagram and Vizag District (AP) should be seriously alerted. And Gajapati and Ganjam Districts of Orissa should be alerted.

Next Report Friday 10 am IST
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Severe Cyclone "Phailin": Cat 1: As on 1 pm IST Thursday.

Location: 15N and 90.5E..Track NW towards North AP coast.
Central core estimated pressure :  980 mb..Eye clearly Formed !
Core Winds..120 kmph !!. Cat 1  .... Cloud Temperature falls to -80c. Vertical shear mild "brushing" seen. But immediate intensification to Cat 2 seen within 12 hrs with winds expected to cross 150 kmph.

A possibility of intensity decreasing slightly before landfall...But still could be severe. Just a possibility.

5 comments:

Nimish Thaker said...

Sorry to de-focus from Cyclone Phailin, but came across this article in the online TOI .. I personally don't have a Point of View on the article, just thought of sharing it..

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/Temperatures-go-off-the-charts-around-2047-Study/articleshow/23852759.cms

Wasim Athar said...

is this cyclone turning a bit north north weat and will not strike jtwc forecast area ???

Neeraj said...

many times you cannot see the eye clearly. but this one, the eye is very well defined and prominent. people on its track, stay safe.

Ron said...

the eye can be easily seen since evening..rapid intensification of the system..its a beauty though

emkay said...

Comments from western observers indicate presently Katrina strength and is mother of all cyclones in BoB at this moment. But then let us hope what Rajeshbhai has inducated as a possibility happens and it weakens.