Saturday, October 12, 2013

Posted @ 8.40 pm IST Saturday

"Phailin" located at 19N and 85E, has stalled in this position since 5 pm IST to 7.30 pm IST. In that period, it has weakened considerably, and at 8 pm IST, is located at 19N and 86E, just 20 kms South of Gopalpur. Core pressure is 938 mb and winds at 215 kmph. Still just within the official Cat 4 stage.

Presuming the resumed rate of 20 kmph tracking, it would have crossed the coast between 8.30 pm IST and 9 pm IST pm IST.
It is very very difficult to be precise and absolutely accurate for landfall without a proper defined centre. 

In effect, it could be said to have now crossed into land South of Gopalpur between 8.30 pm IST and 9.00pm IST Saturday !!. 

Link of Landfall sent by Akshay Deoras

vagaries would like to reiterate, that this blog had first mentioned the formation of this storm, and predicted its crossing North AP/Odisha coast as early as 3 rd October. This was mentioned in the NEM Watch -2, published on the Current weather page.
susequently, since 8th October, as soon as it attained strength, it can be seen on blog articles that vagaries was consistent in warning named districts in AP and Odisha like Srikakulam, Vizag and Ganjam, Bhubaneshwar and Gajapat.A map of possible path was put up on 9th.
Readers have inquired directly and thru several SMS messages and have taken this warning, and sent warnings and alerted their friends in Odisha and AP..Feels good to have been of help  :-)


Atul P Naik said...

With the information available thru your blog, I convinced two Bihari labourers in Goa and traveling back home around 11th by train, to change their route via Mumbai and Central India rather than via Amravati Express along East coast. I'm glad they heeded the advice!

Unknown said...

Oh wow well done 'round of applause , u should have stood with a banner in your hand on the highway,

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