Posted Monday, 14th Night:
Super Cyclone "Phailin" now hangs around Bihar/Nepal border as a well marked low pressure area.Expected to fizzle out over Eastern Nepal.
All attention towards the Monsoon axis now....
The axis is expected to slid Southwards fast, and will pull the SWM southwards with it.
The SWM is expected to withdraw from West MP, Gujarat and West Nepal by Tuesday 15th and in North Konkan ( including Mumbai), North Maharashtra, Rest of MP and Chattisgarh from Thursday 17th .
Shall put up withdrawal map on Tuesday Night and another on Wednesday showing the 2 days withdrawal..
SWM expected to withdraw from Mumbai region from Thursday 17th.
The off shore trough currently in a east-west position off Mumbai, weakens considerably in next 2 days, and almost becomes non effective after Wednesday.
As the axis shifts Southwards, We will see Easterlies taking over Mumbai in the day...meaning high day temperatures.
Tuesday 15th : Partly cloudy, with a shower possible in some parts of city..Winds turn NE on Tuesday, hearlding a rise in day temperature to 33/34c.
Wednesday 16th/Thursday 17th: SWM Withdraws from Thursday:
A thunder shower may be possible in outer townships on Wednesday. As the SWM withdraws, we see east winds taking over, and a fall in humidity levels are seen. Warm and sunny, the day will rise to 36c by Thursday.Night temperatures drop by a couple of degrees in Suburbs and outer townships.
Pune may get a shower in some parts on Tuesday. SWM withdraws from Thursday 17th, and we see the nights getting distinctly cooler, with the low reaching 17c by the weekend.
NEM Watch -3
The current ENSO trend, which is neutral and the MJO, which shows a weak phase till the 21st, and a "neutral phase from the 22nd till end of October.
A rapid movement of the ITCZ towards the South, we see Easterlies picking up along the TN coast from Wednesday.
NE winds start their domination from Tuesday 15th.
However, it can be assumed, seeing the November MJO and Easterly wave flow, with a couple of strong systems from the Bay, the NEM will be near normal in Chennai (Normal = 822 mms .Expected 800 mms).
Overall we see the NEM can be above normal by 10% in TN (All TN average = 440 mms. Expected 500 mms) and about 10% above Normal in Vellore (Normal 414 mms. Expected 450 mms).
Bangalore may get its normal share of 225 mms for the season.
From the current trends, it seems the NEM will set in around the 22nd of October.We can assume the NEM to remain weak to moderate till the end of October. We see the Monsoon strengthening only in November.
On Wednesday, a low form in the Southern parts of the Bay, around the 10N/12N line.
The Low moves westwards, and gets embedded in an Easterly trough East off Sri Lanka along the 10/11N line. But due to lack of favourable parameters, it is apparent the easterly wave lacks strength, and may precipitate only around Sri Lanka region (East coast)...
Chennai will get brisk East winds from Wednesday as a result.
As a line of wind discontinuity forms in the Southern Peninsula Interiors, we get thunder showers in interior TN and Karnataka from Tuesday thru the week. But, Thunder Showers in Chennai city on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Bangalore gets good thunder showers from Tuesday thru this week, due to the LWD.