Sunday, September 01, 2013

SWM Withdraws from Most of Pakistan except the SE corner of Sindh. Indications of further withdrawal from West Rajasthan seem to be on stream.

While withdrawing  as mentioned in Friday's blog, few spots in coastal Sindh got very light rains, and Karachi got traces of rains.
August was good for Karachi, with 107 mms of rains against a normal of 61 mms. In the Northern parts Islamabad got 567 mms against normal of 335 mms, and Lahore 513 mms against a normal of 183 mms. 

Besides this, nothing eventful happening next 2 days for Sub-Continent.
Day temperatures rising a bit in Central Pakistan and Sindh, adjoining West Rajasthan. Nights dropping by 1/2 c in Interior Maharashtra.
Next 2 days, we see some WD precipitation in Northern regions of Kashmir and HP hills.

Please read and decipher below narration day wise.

Monday 2nd Sept and Tuesday 3rd Sept: 
SWM may withdraw fro Western Rajasthan on Tuesday, 3rd September.
Precipitation in Northern Hills. Medium to heavy rains in parts of Orissa, NE States and Parts of Kerala.

Monday and Tuesday:
Mumbai may be having a cloudy morning, with clouds forming in the East. Sunny days with rise in Day temperatures to 32/33c.
Pune and Nasik will be seeing foggy mornings , with clear skies, the nights will be around 18/19c.

Delhi NCR : Partly cloudy days, clear nights. spotty rains possible in some parts. Currently, minimums are around 25/26c, but will drop by a couple of degrees to 23c next few nights. 
Bangalore will be cloudy, with possible evening showers in many parts of city.
Chennai: Hot and humid, with real feel at 40c. Partly cloudy, but stuffy nights.

Wednesday 4th September:
East Coast trough strengthens with a vortex forming off the coast of AP/Northern TN. Rainfall increases along TN coast regions. Thundershowers prevail in interior Karnataka around Bangalore. 

Wednesday:
Chennai: Rain intensity increasing, heavy in many parts of city. Average rainfall amont around 25-30 mms.

Mumbai: Morning will be cloudy, with some rains ( Large Drops) falling in the Eastern suburbs. 
Outer townships in the East can also get some moderate morning showers.
Pune: Thundery developments by evening.

Delhi NCR: (Wednesday and Thursday): Partly cloudy, clearing by evening. Mostly dry and warm at around 37c.
Kolkata: Thunder showers by evening.
Temperatures rise more in Central Pakistan to 42/43c.

Thursday 5th September:
Heavy rainfall increases in Orissa and adjoining Bengal.
In South, rains decrease, but are prevalent in Interior Karnataka. Several storms from Interior TN drift towards coast, and Chennai will see some showers by evening. 

Thursday:
Mumbai: Cloudy morning. Again, some spotty morning shower possible.
Thundery developments over the ghats by evening, and some showers in the Lonavala, Matheran and Mahableshwar regional  ghats. 
Eastern Outer townships may get some light showers drifting from ghats.
Kolkata gets thunder showers by evening.

However, proper scale evening thunder showers can develop and precipitate on the ghats around Mumbai (Lonavala, Khandala and Matheran) and in outer townships from 10th September.

Ganesh Chaturthi: West Coast trough can get activated from the 10th, and bring more rains in West coastal regions and Interior Mah...but more up dates on this later.



Vagaries' Monsoon Contest Opens Again. 
The Rules are the same as the July/Aug contest, and the Places also same.
Only, the fgure now to be filled is the Total Season Rain from 1st June -30th September for the individual Places. No separate September figure is required. ONLY 4 MONTH TOTAL.
New addition is : Highest Rainfall in India...5 Points.
For Details, See "Monsoon Total Contest" Page.

All entries before 7th September..Entries close by 12 Mid Nigh of 7th September.
Rainfall till 31st August given by Pradeep in Comments of main Page and Monsoon Total  Contest Page
Rohit's Page Updated 

19 comments:

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain in bangalore on Saturday morning. Also last night we experienced heavy rain.

GSB said...

Pradeep, looking at last year's analysis I think it could be Konkan & Goa OR AN Island OR Coastal Karnataka.

But I am very, very poor at predictions.....LOL. I'm sure Rajesh sir can be more accurate in this regard.

Thanks.

karthikjohnny said...

Thunderstorm came so close to chennai today. western suburbs got some rains around 6pm.

originaldashman said...

All models predicting excellent rains for Chennai from today

super sai said...

very heavy rains predicted for Chennai area from today evening.

sam khan said...

brief 5 mins heavy shower in Vasai around 8pm

sset said...

clouds off Sri Lanka, weak trough over TN/AP is very rare phenomenon at this time of the year. However this seems to be only way for entire interior KAR, rayalseema, parts of TN to get some rains, else will be ending serious droughts. Hope this continuous entire SEPT till NEM sets in if any low moves that will be great?

karthikjohnny said...

hvy rain lashes chennai with lightning n thunder.. expecting 4-5cm atleast

rajesh said...

Chennai gets t/s on Tuesday night...and the B'lore region too got showers ...the situation forecasted for Wednesday almost prevails on Tuesday night...
sam: hoping for some morning light rains in E.outer townships soon...development of rising Cb seen today

karthikjohnny said...

vry hvy rains in S chennai.. more storms coming from W

karthikjohnny said...

S n W chennai got battered yest.. chembarambakkam, a western suburb records 102mm

Abhijit said...

Rajesh Sir's forecast of eastern outer township to get moderate shower on Wednesday morning is spot on.. :) As Badlapur received medium to heavy shower for 20mins between 5.45am to 6.05am today. Now sky clearing after 7am and sun shining..

originaldashman said...

Excellent rains yday night in all areas of Chennai..even hailstorm was reported from one of the places..

Vijayanand said...

From saturday to yesterday everyday it has rained in bangalore. On saturday and sunday of course it was heavy rain.

super sai said...

very heavy rains in Chennai yday night. Adambakkam recorded easily over 6cm.

more heavy rains surely tonight

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir,
Today in the morning at 9 am there was a sudden heavy downpour for 10 mins along with gusty winds which made it look very stormy here at Vasai.What causes these small clouds to burst it's happening from yesterday?

sam khan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rajesh said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rajesh said...

sam: since last 5 days, the situation and cloud formation methodology and circumstances have changed. Most morning clouds are lifted fog or night condensation oriented, and evening clouds appear from today on eastern horizon from convection.
Thats why, i had put morning showers expected from wed...
hope you are participating in contest ?

6:17 PM, September 04, 2013 Delete