Sunday, September 15, 2013

Follow up Post: Monday Mid Day Situation:

1. The Northern WD has ,moved East and is over Kashmir. A trough from the system runs Southwards. In a speedy development (due to various factors), an UAC has formed in the trough situated early morning Monday over Punjab/HP. This has strengthened the trough.


2. As a result, the WD and the ensuing trough has pushed the Monsoon axis into MP and Orissa. The western end of the axis is over Kutch, and running thru MP/Orissa , the Eastern end emerges in the Bay. Wind circulations and axis alignment with the shear show the possibility of an UAC in the Bay by Tuesday.

3. The Western end of axis dipping South into Kutch, has also re-activated the trough off the West Coast of India. This was mentioned in Sunday night article of vagaries. Now, it can be further strengthened by a UAC off the Goa coast soon.

Next report tonite: 
Rainfall in City and around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(16-09-2013) sent by Abhijit Modak on Mumbai Page 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weather Situation Posted on Sunday (15th) Night:

1. The WD mentioned in Friday's post is moving across the Northern hills and is affecting parts of Northern Punjab (see image as on Sunday evening).

Rains and thunder showers are more widespread in Kashmir and part of Punjab plains. Expecting a fall in night temperatures in the hills. Srinagar and other stations will see a fall in night temperatures. Srinagar may witness a night temperature of 10c or below.

2. The trough off the west coast will strengthen next 2 /3 days. By Wednesday 18th, an UAC (or a weak low) can get embedded in the trough off the Goa coast. Since it will not sustain much, can fizzle out in a couple of days after forming.

3. Some models are showing the formation of a Low in the Bay, off the Orissa coast. Models forecast the formation around the 20th of this month. Vagaries is non committal today, and reserves its view on the formation and date of formation  till the proper formation parameters are clear. Proper announcement will be when and if situation warrants the formation. 
Seeing the current withdrawal position, and high pressure forming over Central India, it may possible that any system in Bay may head towards Bangledesh.

18 comments:

k.p said...

sir what about the rains in mumbai.n also the low in arabian sea.n whats ur forecaste of upcoming week of mumbai

rajesh said...

kp: these thunder showers are withdrawal showers..there is no low pressure as yet in arb sea...and can form on wed/thu.
Mumbai can expect evening showers till wed at least, and some more severe ones on wed..

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir
Atlast torrential thunderstorm lashed Vasai. thank God.

Abhijit said...

Many friends
and neighbours experience is that
while traveling towards Badlapur is
that till 7pm Ambernath was dry !! And
as train was moving towards
Badlapur very heavy rain was observe
so all commuter in trains were
frighten by looking at rain rate & as Badlapur stn was coming
near no track was visible at all and
water was flowing at very fast rate as
if some river exist there! And all that
water was flowing on roads also till
knee height !!

Vinod said...

Rain still on here..in malad..

baboo chachoo said...

abhijit is like a big story teller.

sam khan said...

Morning heavy showers in vasai for 5 min's.

k.p said...

sir is this rain are from the low .because the weather here in mumbai looks like typicaly monsoonish

Neeraj said...

Kathmandu got heavy night time shower early Saturday morning (around 2 AM - as i heard). the next morning was slightly cooler, but hotter conditions have returned. Till monsoon withdraws completely from here, temps may be little higher for this time of year ; i was at southern border town - bihar-nepal border this weekend and it was quite hot there . around 38 C.

Abhijit said...

Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(16-09-2013)

Santacruz 43.9mm
Colaba 17.4mm
Vagaries 26.0mm(till 12.15am available)
Vihar(Mumbai) 76.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 59.0mm
Alibaugh 29.0mm
Uran 22.0mm
Panvel 59.2mm
Karjat 52.5mm
Khalapur 41.0mm
Vasai 24.0mm
Thane 68.5mm
Bhivandi 57.0mm
Murbad 63.0mm
Shahapur 21.8mm
Kalyan 18.0mm
Ulhasnagar 28.0mm
Ambernath 15.3mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 43.0mm

Abhijit said...

Badlapur recorded 186.4mm rain ending 8.30am today. In that 100mm had recorded in just 1hr period between 5.30pm to 6.30pm yesterday evening..

Nimish Thaker said...

I travelled from a place called Apta close to Panvel to my house at Juhu yesterday evening around 6:00 PM. There was continuous heavy rains right from the time we left Apta - some pockets had extreme amounts of rainfall leading to very poor driving conditions. I observed nearly continuous lightning for 3 hours, however most of the lightning was cloud to cloud, saw very few vertical lightning bolts. Given the amount of rain in a lot of areas - I passed from Chembur around 7:30 PM - I thought the Thunder and lightning were quite moderate. None of the scary stuff. I did however, witness a very vicious storm at Apta the previous evening on Saturday. Could see lot of cloud to ground strikes all around the farm.

Abhijit said...

@ baboo chachoo. I am not an story teller !! I was providing purly live weather update from Badlapur & narrating the actual fact of what the commuters were facing the issues in stormy weather..

You can see the rainfall stats which is published in above comments..

rajesh said...

Neeraj: Thanks for the feed back...seeing monsoon being "pushed out" of Nepal by the WD, which like i said will effect Nepal also, more so the west.

kp: explanation in blog to your query.
I would request you to please reveal your name. Would be very much easier and friendly to exchange chats and comments that way. Addressing as "kp" and short form is not comfortable...Thanks

Comment by mail from Lokmat Times Aurangabad Editor:
"Dear Rajeshji, your prediction in this commentary had come true and it had rained for two days. Alas, rains are playing truant again. Hope the situation changes. anyway, congrats for ur right prediction. "

sam khan said...

Rajeshs sir,
Yesterdays storm was violent in Vasai(west) but Vasai east was left out' but, later on there were moderate showers in that area.

Nimish Thaker said...

Folks, check out the Mumbai radar - there is absolutely nothing on it!! There is no rain nor any towering clouds anywhere in the vicinity!! Normally by this time there are huge blobs of Red, Yellow and Blue coloured rain bands and clouds touching 18 KM in height.

Why this sudden change. What's happening?

sam khan said...

looks like the rain is likely to enter from the west tonite in mumbai.SWM style

Abhijit said...

With 77mm rain today, Rabale( Navi Mumbai) crosses 3000 mms mark with 3029 mms rainfall from 1 June to 16 Sept 2013..