Sunday, September 29, 2013

Posted on Sunday, 29th:

SWM withdrawal line drawn earlier cannot be "erased", even though the initial withdrawal parameters over Rajasthan and Punjab had set in. Now, due to meteorological reasons (explained thru video), the retreating parameters have allowed BB-13 to play havoc. 
Having thus confirmed a total "monsoon" setting again over the entire region. The monsoon axis has established over the central India region, and "broadened, thus allowing precipitation to move Northwards towards Haryana and Delhi again.

Now, we have to wait till BB-14 tracks towards Central India. SWM withdrawal is further held up now.

BB-13 is weakening fast, and is situated over Southern Rajasthan. Last of the rains from this system will be in Udaipur and Mt. Abu region of Rajasthan and Palanpur, Deesa in Gujarat.on Monday 30th.

Meanwhile, we must shift to BB-14. Situated on the Orissa coast at 20N. Presently at 1002 mb. System expected to track W/NW.
Monday 30th:Resultant Heavy rains region: Angul, Cuttack and Bhubaneshwar regions. Surrounding regions too get fairly widespread rains.

Tuesday 1st October: Entire region from East Gujarat thru Maharashtra thru Chattisgarh and Orissa get moderate rains. Heavy fall in parts of Chattisgarh and South Eastern MP.
Moderate to heavy rains in parts of Haryana and Delhi NCR on Monday and Tuesaday.
Chance of heavy thunder showers for Nagpur on Tuesday and Wednesday

Wednesday 2nd October, as the system moves, very heavy rainfall expected in the Damoh region and Seoni regions of East MP. Adjoining Gondia region of Vidharbh can get heavy rains. 
As the West coast trough strengthens, we see rains again in Southern Saurashtra and then into North Konakn region from Thursday.

Mumbai will continue to get the normal passing showers (with thunder heads by evening) till Wednesday 2nd October. Rainfall and thunder showers increasing from Thursday evening.
Thunder showers will continue till next Sunday at least, pushing the Monsoon season till 8th October at least.

The Table Below, compiled by Pradeep John for Vagaries, shows the colossal amount of rain ( in mms) in Gujarat in the 7 days that BB-13 lingered on...The reason for that is explained in the Video attached here and on the right side of Page.
Date :September 2013

The above Table is also published on Pradeep's Page and in the Vagaries Extreme Blog for future references.

Mumbai Lake Levels and Details of Lake Rains from JayeshMehta. ..28th September 2013...on Mumbai Page


Anonymous said...

Early NEM onset (around Oct 10)???

Anonymous said...

ALERT! NEM to start with a Low!

A low to enter BOB on Oct 7..hope it move towards South India. Otherwise, this would delay the onset.

SVT said...

@Rajesh Where I can find video you talked about in your last post?

SVT said...

@originaldashman It seems that low will move westward toward central India.

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