Posted on Wednesday Night:
4th September..The South West Monsoon has withdrawn from West Rajasthan (as per Vagaries' observations).
The Seasonal Low a the western End of the Monsoon Axis has weakened to 1002 mb. Resultantly, the Monsoon Axis itself has weakened.
The East Coast trough will form in the Bay by Thursday, but move towards the coast by Saturday.
On Thursday and Friday, there may be some heavy rains in parts Northern TN districts of Vellore and Thiruvallur, and adjoining Districts of AP. Coastal AP too, gets heavy rains from the trough.
Mumbai: As usual, cloudy morning, precipitating showers in some parts. Rainfall 5-7 mms.Clearing later, and re-grouping by evening.
Outer Townships will have same pattern of morning showers. Clearing, and getting Cb clouds by afternoon evening. Rains upto 10 mms.
Some isolated showers in the ghat areas. Rains increasing as mentioned after 10th, Ganesh Chaturthi.
Chennai: Less chances of a rain cloud or TS hitting Chennai these 2 days. Increase in rains on Saturday and Sunday, with Thunder showers precipitating upto 40-50 mms in some areas.
Delhi NCR: Warm and hazy at 37c..with almost clear skies and strong dusty West winds. Night temperatures may drop to around 24/25c.
Surat: Partly cloudy with upto 10 mms rain on Thursday. Decrease in rains on Friday.
Pune: Cloudy in the afternoon and evening. Pleasant mornings at 18/19c.
Bangalore will be partly cloudy with showers in some parts. But a pleasant day at 26c.
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Posted Wednesday Evening @ 6 pm IST
The prevailing UAC in the South Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep Islands has weakened, but has descended and formed a sea level trough off the Karnataka/Kerala coast. This development happens sometimes, and not always assured, but will be temporary and should disappear in 24 hrs.
But, while it will bring rains to the West, hopefully, it should not weaken the corresponding upper trough and off shore trough along the TN coast. Else, we see the rainfall along TN suddenly decreasing.