Thursday, September 19, 2013


Updating blog on situation for next 3/4 days by 9 pm tonite

Posted Update on Sunday Afternoon:
BB-13 Stationary over SW Madhya Pradesh at 1000 mb. Winds rushing towards core created a clouding segmant in the West quadrant. As expected, "Rains effecting West coast from Palghar to Gujarat coast'.See here


Posted Saturday Evening:
BB-13 is weakening and moving West. Associated UAC will bring some heavy rains in Marathwada on Sunday.

Strong winds from the West along the North Maharashtra coast till Gujarat will bring heavy rains on Sunday. 
Regions to be affected will be from Palghar to Gujarat border. 
Vasai and Northern outer townships can get some sharp showers on Sunday.
Thunder clouds can develop over Eastern outer townships by afternoon and rain in a few spots. 

Mumbai will be sunny intervals and partly cloudy, with a moderate passing shower by afternoon/evening in some parts, not amounting to more than 5-7 mms. 

Surat will see an overcast Sunday with showers in the day. Some heavy showers  can occur in many parts. Rain amount will be around 35-40 mms by Monday morning.

Sharp showers were experienced in many parts of Delhi NCR on Saturday. This, was indeed , a surprise development for me.
Heavy rains with thunder was reported from many regions and Akshardham recorded 48 mms, while Indrapuram saw 34 mms and Pusa 27 mms. SE winds , with moisture, overriding the system and inter acting with NW winds caused the heavy rains. Resultantly  the winds have shown great variations in the day. Even the interaction of winds caused an directional wind shear, resulting in thunder and lightning in the Delhi region.

The temperature fell from a day's high of 33c to 23c by evening.


BB-13 moving West into Eastern Gujarat..
Several places in East and SE Madhya Pradesh received very heavy rains...Armori & Khandwa 103 each, Khaknar 95,...Desaigaanj in adjoining Vid got 156 mms..Parts of Delhi NCR received showers too....putting up report and latest on BB-13 tonite..

Mumbai Lake Levels and Details of Lake Rains from Jayesh Mehta...21st September 2013...On Mumbai Page
Another set from Kolkata taken by Santosh Subramanian...21st september 2013...on Inte Active Page..My fav. the last one.

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Posted Tursday Night:
The Low in the Bay, numbered BB-13, has moved West into Orissa. BB-13, will move West, into MP, and  restricted by the high pressure in the North.
It will track thru MP and weaken along its path, 

Friday: Heavy Rains to Watch out for: Central MP. Bhopal Districts.
Saturday: Western MP and adjoining North Maharashtra and parts of Eastern Gujarat.

City Forecasts:
Mumbai: Rainfall intensity and frequency decreasing. 
Friday. Partly cloudy day. Thunder clouds building up in the Eastern sky. Chances of drifting and bringing rain in some parts of city by evening. Rain amount expected: 10-12 mms average.
Saturday/Sunday: Thundery developments in evening, otherwise partly sunny day. Light showers in the evening in some areas. Rains about 5-7 mm/day.

Pune:
Friday: Thunder showers in the evening, lesser intensity, around 10 mms. 
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy and warm day. Almost no rains.

Chennai City: 
Friday/Saturday: Chances of a thunder shower "popping up" in some parts of the city. Regional rains upto 7-10 mms.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and warm. 

Delhi NCR: Cloudy and stuffy weekend.
Friday: Sunny, getting cloudy later in the day.
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy day, and stuffy nights. Day temperatures around 32c on Saturday, rising on Sunday.

Kolkata: Clearing after Friday.
Friday: Remaining moisture from BB-13 will bring thunder showers in many parts of the city during the day.
Saturday/Sunday: Rains and shower intensity and frequency decreasing on the weekend.

Hyderabad: Heavy thunder shower. Saturday/Sunday: Light rain in some parts of city on Saturday after cloudy day. Sunday will be without any meaningful rains.

Goa: After showers on Friday, rain intensity and frequency decreasing from Saturday for the weekend.

Sambalpur, Orissa (on request): Seeing the developments around, i would predict thunder showers of moderate intensity in the district region. City may also get a shower in the evening, which may be around 15-20 mms.

37 comments:

Atul Naik said...

Climatic conditions not indicative of heavy rains in Goa as of now. Intermittent rains, partly sunny, partly cloudy so far today, at least in the coastal areas.

Nimish Thaker said...

Mumbai radar is back

Abhijit said...

Heavy Thunderstorm Rain lashed Badlapur for hour period.

Khyati Pandit said...

Sir heavy rains are still on in miraroad right nw.are this due to the low or not and is the withdrawal would be delayed by 25 september in mumbai as you said or not or would it be delayed

rajesh said...

Khyati: I just put up some reduction in rains this weekend...But, as of now, i would put the final and last showers for Mumbai region around 25th/26th..

sam khan said...

Heavy thunderstorm in Vasai for about 30 mins with strong breeze, now light breeze blowing in SE direction, also mild lightning towards the east can be seen.

sam khan said...

Thunder and lightning is increasing in Vasai looks like another storm is approaching.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, the low entering from bay will it increase rains in Mumbai for short period.

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, the low entering from bay will it increase rains in Mumbai for short period.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

thanks for response. It rain from last afternoon till midnight

Nilesh Ladhad said...

i think this is the last rain for this monsoon

Abhijit said...


Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(20-09-2013)

Santacruz 4.1mm
Colaba 42.6mm
Vagaries 6.5mm
Alibaugh 89.0mm
Uran 42.0mm
Panvel 29.0mm
Karjat 12.0mm
Khalapur 11.0mm
Vasai 9.0mm
Thane 4.2mm
Bhivandi 10.0mm
Murbad 10.0mm
Shahapur 24.6mm
Kalyan 21.0mm
Ulhasnagar 33.0mm
Ambernath 40.0mm

paulodon said...

weather models show the UAC moving more towards gujarat maharashtra indicating heavy rains starting 23rd sep onwards till 26th.....Rajesh your take on it.... i guess the monsoon withdrawal could extend till this month end and beyond because of this UAC..???

Amol Patil said...

Thanks for this update, i want to know about BB-13.Is this any kind of code words.you can also visit me at rain harvesting in mumbai. i like your blog. thanks for sharing with us.

Khyati Pandit said...

sir are the low frm arabian sea as well as from bay would make a late withdrawal of monsoon from mumbai

Abhijit said...

With 38mm rainfall ending 8.30am today, Matheran crosses 5000mm mark in SWM with 5008 mms rain from 1 June - 20 Sept 2013.

Karjat crosses 4000mm mark in SWM with 4035 mms rain recorded from 1 June - 20 Sept 2013.

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit said...

Tulshi Lake, Mumbai also have crossed 4000mm mark with 4058 mms rainfall from 1 June - 20 Sept 2013.

rajesh said...

For Mumbai,we have to wait and see .
Monitoring BB-13 as it moves West. What we have to see is its strength, that is, whether it remains strong after tomorrow. Otherwise, as mentioned, it is on Friday over MP and precipitating there.

Some precipitation also occurred around Delhi NCR. The high ridge has not dampened the system it seems, and a string of cloudig moved a bit North from MP.

Mohsin mulla said...

dear rajesh sir,
I look bbc weather outlook..they are pridicted low will hit mumbaiand south gujrat early next week and very good intensity and ver heavy to very hevy rain forcast in upcoming week in mumbai ur view on that...

emkay said...

Suspect the prediction reg low over mumbai may be related to a WD pushing the BB13 southwards

emkay said...

Suspect the prediction reg low over mumbai may be related to a WD pushing the BB13 southwards

emkay said...

Suspect the prediction reg low over mumbai may be related to a WD pushing the BB13 southwards

sam khan said...

The low is likely to hit Mumbai north konkan , south Gujrat, early next week thus bringing very wet weather in these places. things will be very clear by tommorow as rajesh sir has mentioned already.

rajesh said...

Moshinbhai: My views on the point by you are in a comment just above your comment.

emkay: dont think so..
and the models were predicting a NW track, i have repeatedly mentioned its the ridge that will keep the system southwards.And vagaries predicted a west track.
A veteran like emkay could'nt have missed that line in the blog :-)

rajesh said...

vagaries does not necassariliy agree with the models. On the track of the system BB-13, we had predicted westwards, and move it did.
Now, i feel, that we wait till Saturday afternoon, see its strength and make an assessment on rains for Mumbai.
Till yesterday, i had said not much rain for the weekend..so holds good till then

Khyati Pandit said...

sir what are ur views regarding the low effecting mumbai n its withdrawal to be late what next week holds for mumbai.is it very heavy rain or the withdrawal....

rajesh said...

writing tonite... maybe a bit late..

Wasim Athar said...

has the monsoon really withdrawn from parts of gujrat if so why this low?

sset said...

every year we have seen we declare monsoon withdrawl and next few days a low will develop in these areas. IMD predicts heavy rain over MAHA,GUJ and of course RAJ(monsoon has withdrawn)

rajesh said...

wasim/sset: Please refer vagaries post of last withdrawal announcement...sept 14th..Monsoon has withdrawan from a small part of Northern Kutch. NOT FROM GUJARAT .

Khyati:Low is over west MP...moving west. As always, Next weeks details will be put up on Sunday

Wasim Athar said...

is usagi too far to send a pulase into bay of bengal?

sam khan said...

Very windy here in Vasai.

Vinod said...

Cherrapunji has got very less rain this year till date

sam khan said...

As predicted by rajesh sir, Vasai received sharp showers for 5 mins.

Mohsin mulla said...

rajesh bhai,
suddenly change in weather in thane bright sunshine converted in to dark and light rain started in thane.very breezy condition in thane from last night it is because of low pressure are near in mumbai..its look like cyclone are lokking to touch mumbai..ur view on that..and tell us low direction...

Puneet Bangera said...

SSET.This is 4 u..
Good rainfall in bangalore in this month.
In Sept, Bangalore receives record rainfall in 25 years.
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/358462/in-sept-bangalore-receives-record.html