Friday, August 30, 2013

next 4 days weather with city forecasts by 10.30 pm..on blog
Again, Another Super Analysis of SWM as of 31st August 2013 by GSB....on Stats and Analysis Page....

Wow ! 8215 mms...and thats the Topper 0n 31st August...Pradeep has Just Updated his Page with the All India Toppers to Date...Pradeep's Page

Follow up Post as on Saturday Night:
All on Schedule:
Heavy rains lashing Kerala, and as estimated with 10-15 kmph North Winds. figures will  be available on Sunday, but some places have received more than 100 mms.

Chennai was dry today, and had S/SW winds in the day turning S/SE by evening.
Mumbai had 1/2 passing showers, and Delhi NCR had localised showers in some parts .

So, the Line of Wind Discontinuity has been created and formed as expected. More thunder showers inland (Southern Peninsula ) tomorrow.

WD in the upper level is crossing North Pakistan, and another follows from the West. Things are moving and changing next week !

Figures of Konkan August Rainfall from Abhijit and Thane Information from Puneet Bangera..on Mumbai Page

Rohit's Page Updated x---------------------------x-----------------------------------x--------------------------------------------x
Posted on Friday, 30th August:

City Forecast for Saturday 31st and Sunday 1st September:

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and sunny. A few passing showers. Day temperatures around 31/32c. weekend rain amount will be just around 5 mms.
Outer townships will be warm , with passing showers. But still will manage a daily rainfall between 10-15 mms.

Pune and Surat: Partly cloudy, with a light drizzles in some parts. Around 3-5 mms rain possible. Day will be around 29c.

Chennai: Saturday may see an isolated rain shower drifting in some area, but chances are less. Sunday will be dry and warm.Heat index may be around 38c. Rains intensity increasing from Wednesday.

Delhi NCR: Warming up, partly cloudy, but chance of a shower in some parts. Scattered local shower possible. Sunday will be dry and warm.

Kolkata: Rain intensity increases slightly from Monday.

Detailed narration and description below Map

Synoptic situation:

The SWM has started withdrawing from Western and Central Pakistan. 
The trough in the extreme North of Pakistan is "pushing" down , and the resultant WD is causing the seasonal low to weaken and elongate, that is concentrated regions are not seen. North Pakistan continues to get rains with Islamabad getting 30 mms today. 
Possibly, complete Monsoon withdrawal parameters may develop by Tuesday over entire Pakistan.

BB-11 is hovering in the UP region as a weak system. At the most, we can say it being embedded in the Monsoon Axis, is keeping active precipitation along the axis.
Rainfall is persisting along the axis line in North MP and adjoining UP.
As the system fizzles out by Saturday, rainfall will be shifted to the Eastern end of the axis. 

The western end of the monsoon axis is basically dry and has seen the SWM withdrawal commence.
Coastal Sindh region may still see some very scattered light showers on Saturday...may dry up after Sunday. West winds prevail.

Now, an UAC in the Southern Sri Lanka region is going to bring dry weather for Chennai in the next 2 days. Yes...dry weather. As the system moves Westwards and weakens in the Arabian Sea, we will see a rush of North winds into the system along the west coast, and a rush of south/south -west winds along the East (TN) coast. 

Hence, spent winds will bring dry and windy (South/South-West winds) conditions to Chennai and TN and moist winds will bring wet and North winds to Kerala.

This also forms a weak perpendicular line of wind discontinuity in the Interior Southern Peninsula, South of 12N.
Thunder showers may be expected along this line in the interiors of southern Karnataka and parts of Western TN. Kerala gets the double benefit of precipitation.

Due to favourably placed Monsoon axis position, Nepal and Kathmandu are getting good rains. Kathmandu received 15 mms today (Friday), taking the August tally to 431 mms, against the monthly normal of 330 mms. Showers will continue this weekend also. Dang got 87 mms today.


Unknown said...

Today got good showers at evening in Belgaum.Its just like thunder storm format after 20 days dry weather:)

Neeraj said...
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Neeraj said...

So, this is the beginning of the end. Here in Kathmandu, thundery heavy showers in the evening - as has been the norm this monsoon - no persistent drizzle like rain - rather more of heavy downpour now and then. Stats show more than our share of rain has fallen this monsoon season. Cannot call this a weak monsoon for sure , but rather it has been an erratic, temperamental monsoon. From Aug 23 till 26, i was at the southwestern town of Nepalgunj (reputed to be the hottest place in the whole country); and hot it was - dry hot weather till 25th, but 26th morning was different with very very heavy rain- around 100 mm in three hours or so.
I would expect the monsoon like weather to continue for another 15 days or so with mornings increasingly getting cooler.Things would still remain a bit hot and humid for us till maybe the start of second week of october as is the norm.

Anonymous said...

Absolutely dry weather in Chennai now..winds from NE because of the UAC near Lanka..storms that formed over west moved S/SW and dissipated.

Vinod Desai said...

It is raining since morning here in malad.medium to heavy..

Vinod Desai said...

It is raining since morning here in malad.medium to heavy..

Unknown said...

Moderate to Heavy rains in Vasai past 20 mins, looks like monsoon weather is back very gloomy too.sudden change. but nice cool weather .

Viravanalluran said...

This is a very superb analysis. The UAC at southern tip of Srilanka no doubt will bring dry weather to NE portions of TN. Further drift of UAC into west will change the wind pattern and as pointed out by you only interior west of TN will get rain.

Unknown said...

Again there was heavy rain for 5 mins in Vasai

Abhijit Modak said...

Some Konkan coastal places below normal average rainfall recorded for Aug 2013 :

Alibaug 161mm (66% deficit)
Murud 177mm (75% deficit)
Colaba 234mm (51% deficit )
Vasai 245mm (42% deficit)
Santacruz 255mm (52 % deficit)
Palghar 286mm (32% deficit)
Shriwardhan 296mm (60% deficit)

sset said...

Viravanalluran - what is your estimation of NEM? Normal/below normal? SE interior KAR still with very low rain (similar to last 4 years). BANG-350mm, MYS-160mm, MANDYA-80mm, rest places between 150-200mm (kolar,tumkur,even rayalseema)since june. SEPT is the only month left else worst drought. Do you think it will rain in interiors of KAR during SEPT? 2012 sept rain was 0mm for BANG.

Anonymous said...

Here comes September-the month of early morning intense thunderstorms for Chennai and onset of easterlies!!!

Abhijit Modak said...

As the Sept month get starts, each year's scenario is back.. Today Badlapur experience first fog for the current season & visiblity was reduced to 400mts.

Anonymous said...

Yes, early indications are for a very wet September

Abhijit Modak said...

Lowest August rain for city suburbs in 14 years..

Abhijit Modak said...

Pune chilled as min temp 18.2°C today.

Ron said...

Aug was a total of the worst ever seen...

Pradeep John said...
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Pradeep John said...

In order to help the contestant, i have provided the 31st August Update. I request all to participate. Vagaries Certificates will be provided at the end of the result.

I.City Rainfall Expected - 2 points for 25 mms range and 1 point for 50 mms range.

Till 31st August

1. Mumbai Col (2064) & Mumbai Santa (2242.2) (Average, not separate)- 2153.1
2. Delhi Saf (781.4) and Delhi Pal (517.9) (Average, not separate) - 649.65
3. Chennai Nung (375.7) and Chennai Meen (480.1) (Average, not separate) - 427.9
4. Bangalore City (411) and Bangalore Hal (348) (Average, not separate) - 379.5
5. Kolkata Alp (1404) and Kolkata Dum (1297) (Average, not separate )- 1350.5
II Heavy Rainfall (one from all regions)- 2 points for range of 100 mms and 1 point for range of 200 mms.

Till 31st August

1.Mahableshwar - 5953
2.Cherrapunji - 4483
3.Agumbe - 7265
4.Dharmasala - 2881
5.Vadakara - 3947
6.Valparai - 3452
III. Wettest Place (Name the Highest rainfall Place)- 5 points

Top 10 rainfall till 31st August

1.Hulikal - 8215
2.Tamini -7879
3.Mashtikatte - 7749
4.Amgaon - 7687 (Till 13th August)
5.Agumbe - 7265
6.Surlabhi - 7242
7.Yadur - 7058
8.Talacauvery - 6973
9.Mani - 6832
10.Kitwade - 6774 (Till 23rd August)

Top 10 is given for helping purpose. Please see the updated top 50 and state wise toppers in pradeep's page in Vageries before quoting the Highest Rainfall for the season.

Anonymous said...

its extremely humid and warm ere in chennai

Anonymous said...

wind pattern has changed ere. clouds are moving from S to N

Unknown said...

At 3am in the morning Vasai had received very heavy rain for 10 mins.looks like monsoon is picking up momentum on the west coast once again.

Pradeep John said...

Good Analysis GSB sir. Which division according to you will top the next fortnight. TN has good chance to come in top according to vagaries forecast ?

Anonymous said...

Very hot and humid today in Chennai..storms which formed over west moved away from the coast..W/SW winds are expected to be back bringing thunderstorms in couple of days..also easterlies may set in north bay bringing showers to AP coast in the middle of next week.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB Sir. Very informative & nice analysis. Thanks for keeping us informing on SWM performance overall.. :)

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