Monday, September 16, 2013

Mumbai Wednesday Night Storm Video..excuse the poor quality...Taken at Mahalaxmi..between 12.30 am and 1 am..when 23 mms were recorded and Temperature dropped to 22.6c !! ...see here

Posted on Tuesday Night:

Heavy Rainfall Alert: Very heavy rains likely to persist from 19th September - 21st September, 3 days, in South Konkan and Goa. Heavy showers in Kerala continue till Thursday.

Mumbai: Winds are Northerly now, as on Tuesday. Mumbai will get heavy thunder showers on Wednesday.  Some thunder showers in some parts of city on Thursday and Friday, expecting around 10-12 mms /day average. Heavier in Eastern outer townships.
Intensity decreasing on Saturday and Sunday.

Chennai can expect showers on Wednesday, some heavy showers in some parts. Rains around 8-10 mms till Thursday morning. Rains expected again on Thursday night and Friday morning.(about 10 mms average till Friday morning)


Moderate Rains in MP and Interior Maharashtra on 20th and 21st. 
Delhi NCR can get partly cloudy on 20th/21st September. 
Under present conditions, the SWM can furterh withdraw from Haryana, Delhi NCR, HP ,Utterakhand and parts of Western UP by 21st September.

Posted on Monday(16th) Night:

Monsoon Axis has slid to the Central Regions of India. The SWM is expected to withdraw from more regions by Wednesday. 
The West coast trough has activated, and an UAC is forming off the S.Konkan Coast. Due to high pressure building up in the Central India region, a Line of Discontinuity forms in the Central Mah. region . 
The Eastern End of the axis will host an UAC in the Bay by the 17th or 18th.

Tuesday 17th: Thunder storms along Konkan (interiors), Marathwada and Eastern Goa (The ghats region). Adjoining N.I.Karntaka.
Places to watch out for heavy rains: Belgaum district and Raichur District in Karnataka, South Konkan . Kurnool and Hyderabad regions in AP. 
In Maharashtra, Marathwada can receive heavy rains. (Nanded and Parbhani districts).

Wednesday 18th: Precipitation in Coastal Karnataka. Vidharbha gets thunder showers on Wednesday.
Heavy Rainfall to watch in Bellary and Gadag districts.
 Kolhapur, Solapur and Satara District can get heavy rains in some pockets. Some outer townships of Mumbai.

Wednesday 18th :Special for 3 Metros:
Kolkata: Thunder storm in Kolkata on Wednesday.

Mumbai: Tuesday, winds will turn to Northerlies. Evening thunder showers will drift from the East. Wednesday some parts of city can expect heavy rains accompanied by thunder and lightning. 
For those enthusiasts monitoring the official rain amounts for Mumbai, i feel another 50-55 mms (accumulated) possible till Friday 20th.
Outer townships: Thunder showers developing on Tuesday in many regions. On Wednesday, downpours will be heavy in some cities in the Eastern townships.

Chennai: Also in line with the other 2 metro cities, can expect thunder showers on Wednesday.

Pune :Thunder showers in some parts of city on Tuesday 17th, and heavier intensity on Wednesday 18th.

59 comments:

Mohsin mulla said...

rajesh sir,
up coming low forming in south konkan increase rain in mumbai or it will be hit and miss for mumbai.this year late september bay also pop up cerculation.any chance of cyclone formed in arabian sea and bay in october.

rajesh said...

Moshin: I have just explained in this article. UAC will form and may stay for max 2 days.Mumbai forecast for next 2 days given...rains less after Thursday...
cannot say of cyclone at his stage..

Atul: Heavy rains expected in Goa next 2 days. UAC forms off Goa coast, and an upper air trough runs thru Goa. Would expect heavier rains on Tues/Wed in interior Goa. Would expect around 30 mms next 2 days in Panjim.

Vinod said...

Rajesh sir,
Would mumbai get any rain in october..specifically during navratri..

Nilesh Ladhad said...

any chance of rain in sambalpur,plz localised it to sambalpur.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

any chance of rain in sambalpur,plz localised it to sambalpur.

sam khan said...

Early morning thunder lightning going on in Vasai.

sam khan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sam khan said...

Dark thunder clouds from the east passed without any rain, only dry thunderstorm.

sam khan said...

heavy rains started in Vasai

Nimish Thaker said...

Very heavy rains in Juhu since 30 mins

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir,
I feel There might be increase in rains in Mumbai from friday or saturday.

k.p said...

Sir is it so are the rains increaseing in mumbai by saturday on sunday.n when is monsoon withdrawing from mumbai.are there any chance of rain in navratri in mumbai after the withdrawal of monsoon from mumbai khyati pandit

sam khan said...

@K.P , rains increasing, is just a query at the moment, which i have put before rajesh sir ,because i wanted to know his view, and i said it because' it looks like as though the UAC from bay will enter Maharashtra and might delay the monsoon withdrawal in MUMBAI AND KONKAN.So altogether it's just a ?...

Atul Naik said...

Rajeshbhai: Indeed as mentioned by you in comments on 16th night, incessant rains lashed all parts of Goa since after midnight. Panaji recorded 21 mm in 4 hrs from 2:30 am to 6:30 am. Skies heavily overcast today, but light drizzle only. Reports of some areas receiving heavy rain spells. Let"s see what the evening and night of 17th have in store!

Atul Naik said...

Rajeshbhai: Indeed as mentioned by you in comments on 16th night, incessant rains lashed all parts of Goa since after midnight. Panaji recorded 21 mm in 4 hrs from 2:30 am to 6:30 am. Skies heavily overcast today, but light drizzle only. Reports of some areas receiving heavy rain spells. Let"s see what the evening and night of 17th have in store!

abizer Kachwala said...

today it rained in nagothane h
eavily for one hour . rain 56 mm

abizer Kachwala said...

today it rained in nagothane h
eavily for one hour . rain 56 mm

abizer Kachwala said...

today it rained in nagothane h
eavily for one hour . rain 56 mm

Abhijit said...

Today early morning heavy rain lashed some part of N.Konkan coast & S. Guj coast. Rainfall ending 8.30am today :

Valsad 107.0mm
Dahanu 73.9mm
Boisar 66.4mm
Palghar 48.8mm
Tarapur 44.1mm
Talasari 23.0mm

Khyati Pandit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dattaraj Joshi said...

Hyderabad received brief showers in the evening. May be around 5mm. Let us see if it gets something heavy tonight.

Ron said...

Mumbai radar seems to be giving problems now..seems to be stuck at 8:47UTC...

rajesh said...

khati/Vinod/sam: lets see, i am working out on the next forecast 9beyond thursday) now...shall put it up, at least in brief..
if the SWM withdrawas by end of ept, then there could be no rains during Navratri. But will be more specific in article

sset said...

correct today early morning Navi Mumbai had heaviest of rains ever seen this year. Just like june-july rain without thunders. Guess it would have dumped 100mm in less than hour. It seems this sept is probably wettest ever for Mumbai. Places like Badlapur (mentioned by Abhijit, also came in news) received 180-200mm in few hours is something record breaking. Usually as per tradition since last many years Mumbai always gets rains during janmasthami, ganesh immersion, navrathri and probably few years it used extend till Diwali (2011).

sset said...

By the way TN,SE interior KAR,Rayalseema has become quite - was expecting entire SEPT rains - guess west coast has now taken over - leaving them dry.

rajesh said...

sam/vinod/kp/sset/Moshin..and all: Why don't you confirm for our vagarians meeting on the 28th of Sept. The meeting is arrange at Panvel.
Please make sure you attend to have better inter action and understanding with each other...you can confirm on blog comments also..
after all, blog readers are a bigger vagarians group !

sam khan said...

Yes Rajesh sir, i trying my level best to makeup for this vagaries meeting in panvel.i will confirm it by friday.

Vasai experienced 4.00am thunderstorm with moderate to heavy rains.

Nimish Thaker said...

Mumbai radar continues to be down. On a day when millions will be on the road. Not sure if IMD folks at the local weather station even monitor the radar, else they would have seen it not functioning on the site.

originaldashman said...

Rained in few places of south Chennai yday evening..hot and humid now..expecting showers today evening..btw, no sign of wind reversal till month end and circulation may form near AP coast in the last week of Sep..

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/India?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=none&type=wind

rajesh said...

Comment from Joseph Kakkatill, Editor, Lokmat Times ;
"Dear Mr Kapadia,
Your predictions for Aurangabad is going actual. Congrats!"

Khyati Pandit said...

Sir are the rains going to be very heavy n scary same as that which happened on sunday in mumbai.is it going to happen that heavy than i m bit worried for the peoples going to ganpati visarjan

Abhijit said...

Medium to heavy rain started in Chandan Nagar, Pune. No lightning or thundering !

Abhijit said...

Now rain has stopped but bit thundering here in Pune.

abizer Kachwala said...

no rain in raigad district whole day.

abizer Kachwala said...

no rain in raigad district whole day.

abizer Kachwala said...

rajesh sir when it will rain heavily in konkan

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Sangareddy, about 40kms from Hyderabad received heavy rains last night(Rajesh Sir's prediction came true).

Hyderabad (South and Western part) getting heavy rains with thuders since last one hour.

originaldashman said...

"Comment from Joseph Kakkatill, Editor, Lokmat Times"

Congrats Rajesh Sir!

rohitaros said...

Very encouraging comments from the editor ..Congrats Sir :)

originaldashman said...

Rajesh Sir..Chennai getting pounded with heavy cyclonic rains now..everybody is praising u for ur prediction in Keaweather blog! :-)

Abhijit said...

Heavy rain with lightning & thundering & gusty winds lashed Pune just now.

rajesh said...

Kolata and Chennai get the predicted storm, and Panvel (as yet till midnight) gets heavy rains and storm for Mumbai region.
Pune too got the heavier rains predicted on Wed.
Goa received 67 mms till wed morning.

Thanks for the kind words and support.

paulodon said...

rains in thane with heavy thunder as of now..:)

sset said...

now it is 12pm. Ganeshas getting last farewell in navi Mumbai -same time lashing thunders with pounding rains - seems God wants to stay back with us!!!

Mohsin mulla said...

rajesh sir,
suddenly in eastern outskirt in mumbai along with navi mumbai started heavy thunder with lightning and cloud brusting..it is effect of low or natural withdrawal phenomenon.what abt upcoming low its hit mumbai or miss it..ur view on that...

rajesh said...

Khyati:Mumbai Heavy rains commenced with thunder storm late at night. So, your wish partially fulfilled and my forecast honoured :-)

Nimish Thaker said...

Rain, lightning and thunder have commenced at Juhu around 15 minutes back. The squall preceding the storm wasn't much here as compared to what was reported from Panvel. There are lots of people on the road at Juhu and some Ganeshas are still reaching the beach for Visarjan

sam khan said...

Heavy rains with thunderstorm activity commenced in Vasai at 4 am.

sam khan said...

Second round of thunderstorm has commenced in Vasai, with heavy rains.

Khyati Pandit said...

sir is this monsoonish weather due to low nearer to mumbai or just a withdrawal thundershower.what are your new predictions.if any than.....

sset said...

it seems monsoon axis has overstayed in central india- MAHA receiving nonstop rains. Will it shift down south so that cities like BANG,MYS,TN,AP can observe thunders and of-course get only SEPT rains as other months was too dry. By the way NAVI MUMBAI after midnight storm, again at 4am early morning got torrential non-stop rains.

rajesh said...

First, a thunder storm at 12.30 am (hurs) here at Mahalaxmi...with 23 mms, and temp dropped to 22.6c ! Then at 4.30 am (Thurs) with 38 mms....so 61 mms at Vagaries till 8.30 am..min temp 22.4c !

Abhijit said...

Pune recorded 71mm rain ending 8.30am today. Min temp was 19.6c today.

Nimish Thaker said...

Juhu had three thunderstorms, the first one at 12:30 AM, then at 5:00 AM and finally at 7:15 AM. The weather here is very Monsoonish - looks like June / July.

Rajeshbhai, has the low formed in the West coast trough?

Viravanalluran said...

Dear Rajesh,
As pointed out by you Chennai and major parts of its suburbs are getting TS daily beginning from 1700 hrs IST to mid night and sometimes beyond. These all are thunder cells of Cumulonimbus clouds developing in the after noon. During evening the low level Nimbostratus clouds, thick enough to hide sun with threatening grey color is spreading out of matured Cumulonimbus clouds and engulfing the sky from West to East and giving rainfall ranging from 10-40 mm. The thunderstorm with rain lasts for 30 min to a maximum of 60 min with gale wind force.
These sort of rainfall during September month for this region is common, but its persistence in time [more than 4 days] and in space [Major parts of North & NW TN]is unusual.

Abhijit said...


Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(19-09-2013)

Santacruz 27.4mm
Colaba 57.4mm
Vagaries 61.0mm
Alibaugh 22.0mm
Uran 38.0mm
Panvel 26.4mm
Karjat 22.5mm
Khalapur 11.0mm
Vasai 45.0mm
Thane 13.0mm
Bhivandi 9.0mm
Murbad 38.0mm
Shahapur 24.8mm
Kalyan 20.0mm
Ulhasnagar 3.0mm
Ambernath 46.2mm

Saurabh Surendra Dwivedi said...

Dear SSET
We are all weather enthusiasts who want to know more so i though of sharing this information.
Interior peninsular India has received surplus rains this year. Refer to the following link for 2013 south west monsoon rainfall so far
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm
Also peninsular interior gets rain outside the official south west monsoon months of June through September. For example for Mysore the rainiest month is October and the second rainiest month is May so when you look at just the rain that falls in the official south west monsoon months you will not get the complete picture. Refer to the following link for mysore's average monthly rainfall http://www.imd.gov.in/section/climate/extreme/mysuru2.htm . October rain is 16 cm and May rain is 14 cm.

Also comparing Konkan and interior peninsular rainfall makes no sense, they have different climates with regard to rain. Konkan and coastal Karnataka comparison makes a lot more sense.

Saurabh Surendra Dwivedi said...

One final point
Variations within a region are quite common. So if one city has received less rainfall that does not mean the entire area is witnessing drought.
For example this year Delhi has received excellent rain. Refer to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn42182_1yr.gif

but the group(Harayana) under which it is put by the met department has received 27% less rainfall.

By the way here is the link for Bangalore rain for that last one year.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn43295_1yr.gif

It has got a surplus of 25 cms.

sset said...

Considerable concern ..rains over peninsular has dropped drastically??? Even trough over KAR/KER is not producing any rains. SEPT is supposed to rain over BANG/SE KAR interiors every day???

Again MAHA under intense clouds NAVI MUMBAI torrential rains and Orissa low will dump over Vidarbha massive rains. Looks like june-july satellite pictures.

Diwediji myself completely disagree. I still maintain same view interiors of KAR/Rayalseema/many areas of TN are most driest places. september few days of rains over these places was due to low over TN - again not great rain compared to vidarbha lows. If you notice entire monsoon these areas did not receive any rain. Kind of mercy low over TN in month of September may not repeat every year. In fact if we compare interiors of KAR with Marathwada (not konkan/vidarbha/madya maha) still it is very less rain. Figures you are showing for mysore was valid 10years back now whole climate has changed and become arid. Infact last 3-4 years shows among major cities BANG/MYS receive lowest of rains. In fact these places have become unreliable for water (god knows how people and industries grow)and proximity to Rayalaseema is another fear advancing aridity...