Friday, September 27, 2013

Next 2/3 days forecast for BB-14 will be updated late tonite by mid night (IST)..BB-13 , still surviving, moves East near Udaipur
Follow up :
Heavy rains in the "triangle" mentioned (below) for Saturday. Till 8.30 am IST (Sunday) in cms, 
: Mount Abu­27; Deesa­17;
Idar and Ajmer­11 each; Jodhpur­10; Itanagar­9; Malda­7; Gorakhpur and Harnai­6 each.

Note on NEM will be published on Monday evening at 9 pm...delayed by a day.

Posted Friday Evening:

SWM Monsoon changes mind, and re-tracks into Rajasthan and Haryana... a very rare and unusual happening...axis moves into Central India.
8 days since i started writing on BB-13, and am still going on !

BB-13, is swinging in vertical heights, and due to very favourable conditions and optimum pressure , is still having precipitation capacity, even in its "old age".


Saturday:
From Kutch, where it is situated today (Friday Evening), that too as a low, it will track Northwards into the International border, and move in a Easterly direction for a short distance thence. Rainfall will be heavy on Saturday in the (imaginary) Bachau-Jodhpur- Ahmedabad triangle.
Heavy Rains expected around Region of  Palanpur, Gandhinagar and Mt.Abu. 

Passing rain expected all along the coast from Baroda southwards thru Bharuch and Surat upto Maharashtra coast.Cloudy and showers in places expected all over South and East Rajasthan upto Delhi NCR. Clouds and thunder activity in NCR possible.

Mumbai: Cloudy, and cirro stratus anvils forming (Lightning possible). Passing showers expected.

Sunday: As per Map.
Mumbai: Cloudy and showers , with lightning possible. Rain amount around 10 mms.
Thundery developments in outer townships .

Surat: Cloudy with some light showers on Saturday and Sunday slight increase in intensity possible.
Light showers in parts of NCR.
Thunderstorm again possible in Kolkata on Saturday with around 20 mms rains.

Favourable chances of a thunder shower in Chennai on Saturday.

Demonstrating their forecasting skills, we have many experts and knowledgeable budding meteorologists in our group. Here is a chance for all others to know your views on the following:
Why was the system persisting over Gujarat for 4 days , and why the extra heavy downpours ? Why do we estimate it to move N/NE now ? ...
This will be discussed in vagaries' meet on Saturday, and then published. In the meanwhile, your thought can be put in the comments on the blog/fb.

On Sunday, an introductory note on the NEM and its expectations this year will be published on vagaries blog on the "Current Weather " Page...


Posted Thursday Night:Brief Note for Friday, 27th ...
Friday Estimate: Okka received 270 mms in 9 hrs on Thursday (as of 5.30 pm IST)
The UAC (BB-13) moves N/NE, with centre around the South Rajasthan region. But, rainfall segment will be in the South and SW of system.
Heavy rans are likely in Kutch, Northern Gujarat region and Southern Rajasthan. 
Heavy rains likely in Jamnagar, Deesa, Kutch (Gujarat) and Barmer (Raj) regions.

Mumbai: Friday will be partly cloudy with sunny intervals. Passing showers amounting to around 10 mms.

Rains can increase again in Bharuch and Surat regions from Sunday. Delhi NCR also can get rains on Sunday....more of all this tomorrow (Friday) when the weekend forecast comes up.

Adjoining Pakistan regions of Badin and SE Sindh can get light/modertae showers. Karachi can get showers overnight and early morning. Hyderabad (Pakistan) can get light showers in the vicinity.

24 comments:

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, I personally feel the S-W wind blowing strongly from the west feeding in moisture from the Arabian sea kept the system alive for four days, getting massive downpours all over Gujrat, also another reason for this system BB-13 to remain stable over Gujrat for four days could be the.....
1- southwesterly winds blowing from the Arabian sea.
2-obstructed by the anti clockwise winds over Northern Gujrat and Rajasthan obstructed this system from moving anywhere 'where the monsoon withdrawal High pressure was trying to establish itself.

sam khan said...
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Neeraj said...

something to do with WD's ?

Mohsin mulla said...

rajesh sir,
non stop rain in mumbai subrub started. I think low enterd somere daman or palghar coast.now heavr rain in thane for past half and hour.all pridiction are failed those whose saaid sw monsoon withdraw frm entire gujrat on 20 to 25 sep13.some time mumbai receive monsoon withdrawal shower in mid october..ur view on that..

Nimish Thaker said...

Suddenly got dark, overcast and very windy at Andheri. No rain here though so far.

Nimish Thaker said...

Looking at the current Lightning map it definitely does not look like it's September end. The map looks like we are in the beginning of September.

Looks like the 2013 SW Monsoon is running 3 weeks late in going away
:-)

Ron said...

how is it retaining so much moisture as to its tracking back to rajasthan and haryana??Has this ever happened before??

rajesh said...

Ron/neeraj: We shall discuss this on Saturday

Abhijit said...

@ SSET/SAM Khan : Please try to attend Vagaries meeting in Panvel at 3pm on 28th Sept.. Would be happy to meet & interact more on current tricky BB low..

Abdul Jabbar said...

Light to moderate rain in SE sindh today.last 24 hrs rain up to 8 am morning ,nagarparkar 40mm,diplo16mm.

Abdul Jabbar said...

Light to moderate rain in SE sindh today.last 24 hrs rain up to 8 am morning ,nagarparkar 40mm,diplo16mm.

emkay said...

SWM withdrawal from mumbai will be as per hindu calendar coinciding with navaratri celebrations, second week of October

emkay said...
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Unknown said...

Where exactly is the location of the vagaries meet at panvel tomorrow? Suresh

sset said...

I think Rajesh sirs figures are bit low.. 27/sep/2013
Khambhaliya(jamnager)- 450mm
Okha - 350mm
Many places in range of 200mm-300mm...

It seems Lord Krishna of Dwaraka has converted mm into cm!!!

sset said...

My personal guess is with SWM again vigourous-central axis feeble NEM will be total failure...
TN/AP/interiors KAR will land into terrible droughts.. Always 2 monsoon are inverse proportional.,

20 years we had been to Jamnagar,Dwaraka,somnath... Hope bet dwaraka has not drowned....

Khyati Pandit said...

sir any new date for monsoon withdrawal of mumbai n next week forecast for mumbai

rajesh said...

khyati: Mentioned in Flash Snippet on side of blog.....yes, next week we have rains. Forecast will be up later

parshuram shinde said...

I THING NEXT WEEK LOW NEAR MUMBAI..

SO MUMBAI CAN GET HAVEY RAIN.

Viravanalluran said...

Dear Rajesh,
The BB-14 which you mentioned resembles with 'MONSOON DEPRESSION" .
The SWM withdrawal may take further time from 20 deg latitudes. More Over THE POWER HOUSE OF SWM -The Mascarene High- is NOT diffused by the descending sun to Southern Hemisphere. It is with strength 1024hPa and lays centred at 80 Deg E / 35 Deg S in Indian Ocean. This will continue to supply moisture to BB-14

SVT said...

Rain in Mumbai and konkan coast to get heavier by next weekend. Should be fun.

rajesh said...

Viravanalluran: absolutely precise observation...keeping that parameter in mind, we can see the cross equtorial flow holding on

paulodon said...

the other models shows mjo moving away from indian ocean.?

Atul Naik said...

Viravanalluran / Rajeshbhai : Thanks for drawing attention back to Mascarene High and the cross equatorial flow!