Follow up :
Heavy rains in the "triangle" mentioned (below) for Saturday. Till 8.30 am IST (Sunday) in cms,
: Mount Abu27; Deesa17;
Idar and Ajmer11 each; Jodhpur10; Itanagar9; Malda7; Gorakhpur and Harnai6 each.
Note on NEM will be published on Monday evening at 9 pm...delayed by a day.
Posted Friday Evening:
SWM Monsoon changes mind, and re-tracks into Rajasthan and Haryana... a very rare and unusual happening...axis moves into Central India.
8 days since i started writing on BB-13, and am still going on !
BB-13, is swinging in vertical heights, and due to very favourable conditions and optimum pressure , is still having precipitation capacity, even in its "old age".
From Kutch, where it is situated today (Friday Evening), that too as a low, it will track Northwards into the International border, and move in a Easterly direction for a short distance thence. Rainfall will be heavy on Saturday in the (imaginary) Bachau-Jodhpur- Ahmedabad triangle.
Heavy Rains expected around Region of Palanpur, Gandhinagar and Mt.Abu.
Passing rain expected all along the coast from Baroda southwards thru Bharuch and Surat upto Maharashtra coast.Cloudy and showers in places expected all over South and East Rajasthan upto Delhi NCR. Clouds and thunder activity in NCR possible.
Mumbai: Cloudy, and cirro stratus anvils forming (Lightning possible). Passing showers expected.
Sunday: As per Map.
Mumbai: Cloudy and showers , with lightning possible. Rain amount around 10 mms.
Thundery developments in outer townships .
Surat: Cloudy with some light showers on Saturday and Sunday slight increase in intensity possible.
Light showers in parts of NCR.
Thunderstorm again possible in Kolkata on Saturday with around 20 mms rains.
Favourable chances of a thunder shower in Chennai on Saturday.
Why was the system persisting over Gujarat for 4 days , and why the extra heavy downpours ? Why do we estimate it to move N/NE now ? ...
This will be discussed in vagaries' meet on Saturday, and then published. In the meanwhile, your thought can be put in the comments on the blog/fb.
On Sunday, an introductory note on the NEM and its expectations this year will be published on vagaries blog on the "Current Weather " Page...
Posted Thursday Night:Brief Note for Friday, 27th ...
Friday Estimate: Okka received 270 mms in 9 hrs on Thursday (as of 5.30 pm IST)
The UAC (BB-13) moves N/NE, with centre around the South Rajasthan region. But, rainfall segment will be in the South and SW of system.
Heavy rans are likely in Kutch, Northern Gujarat region and Southern Rajasthan.
Heavy rains likely in Jamnagar, Deesa, Kutch (Gujarat) and Barmer (Raj) regions.
Mumbai: Friday will be partly cloudy with sunny intervals. Passing showers amounting to around 10 mms.
Rains can increase again in Bharuch and Surat regions from Sunday. Delhi NCR also can get rains on Sunday....more of all this tomorrow (Friday) when the weekend forecast comes up.
Adjoining Pakistan regions of Badin and SE Sindh can get light/modertae showers. Karachi can get showers overnight and early morning. Hyderabad (Pakistan) can get light showers in the vicinity.