Sunday, June 09, 2019

Posted 9th Afternoon:

South West Monsoon advances into Kerala...chief amounts as on Sunday morning in Kerala: Allaphuza 66 mms, Agathi (LKS) 56 mms, Neyaattinkara 44 mms, Cherthala 43 mms, Varkala 37 mms, Mancompu 36 mms.

AS-1 , Low Pressure, expected to pull the SWM into North Kerala and then  Coastal Karnataka by 11th June.
System to intensify to Depression by 11th June. Track North/North West along the West coast till 15N. Then turn to North West Depression will deepen and then head towards the Seasonal Low in Pakistan...via the South coastal Saurashtra and thru Coastal Sindh. Will review again as 200 winds are not strongly " in favour " today...may turn favourable in 12 hrs.
.Good chances of upgrading to Cyclone stage.

Rainfall will be heavy till Coastal Karnataka next 3 days. Thunder showers for Interior Maharahtra next 3 days.
Heavy showers in Coastal Saurashtra as AS-1 moves NW...

Mumbai: Sticking to Thunder Showers forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday. Hot humid and expect some drizzles . Monsoon after the System moves inland, around 15th/16th.

(Possibility of SWM advancing along Coast till Gujarat if AS-1 sticks to N/NW track without Curving NW..)


sset said...

will this be repeat of june 2015 -> historic Gujarat torrential rains + floods.

Abizer kachwala said...

Rajesh Sir ,will be it a repeat like 2015 as mentioned by sset?

Wasim said...

What will the effect of this impending cyclone on SWMonsoon?

Nimish Thaker said...

IMD says the system in AS will turn into a Severe Cyclonic Storm, it will most likely be a Deep Depression by evening today and a Cyclonic Storm by morning tomorrow. As per NDTV online article today, the SCS is likely to pass around 300 KMs West of Mumbai, I think Mumbai will receive significant rainfall - Tuesday night / Wednesday with very Gusty winds as the system passes.

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