Friday, June 21, 2019

Posted 21st June Evening:

The puzzle of the Monsoon continues ! After assurances, the Climate system is  not keeping up to its word ! :-)

Now, an UAC has formed on the West Bengal coast..it is not a Low Pressure area, and not descended.

The UAC, tilting South West with height, is expected to rapidly move West As a result:

Saturday 22nd: Rains in North Chattisgarh, Marathwada and parts of Madhya Maharashtra (Specially South).
Sunday 23rd: Heavy thunder showers activity in North Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and North Konkan.
Enhanced rain activity in Coastal and adjoining Karnatak.
Monday 24th: Rainfall and Thunder activity in Marathwada and North Madhya Maharastra. North Konkan will get thunder showers with possible Monsoon advance.

Mumbai
Saturday partly cloudy, warm and humid. High humidity levels will bring discomfort. Few passing showers in some parts.
Sunday: Chances of thunder activity developing evening/ night. Otherwise hot.

Monday: Chances of thunder clouds drifting from the East very likely...Thunder showers in evening , with strong gusty wind...more chances for Eastern Outer townships and Northern parts.
Vagaries estimates the monsoon likely to move into Mumbai and North Konkan on Monday.

Panvel and Roha will have a weak chance of thunder showers on Sunday and Monday. Chances of clouds building up and drifting from East over the region on Monday 

Pune: Chances of a thunder shower on late Saturday night..with strong winds, temperature likely to fall during the rains.
Sunday & Monday  will see good scope of a thunder shower in the afternoon/evening in Pune. 


Seems to be anther 3/4 days lull in the peninsula and Gujarat regions after Monday.

Aurangabad: Good scope of rains all over Marathwada on Saturday and Sunday. Aurangabad will get thunder showers on Both these days. Monsoon advance by Monday (Hopefully).



9 comments:

Abizer kachwala said...

Thanks Rajesh sir ,for forecasting ...this means no heavy rains in Next 4-5 days atleast in Roha and panvel.

Cumulus arjun said...

Sir, would the thundershowers hitting Mumbai would be heavy or just meagre??

Gunjan said...

Thanks Rajesh sir. Will there be any heavy rains in Mumbai and Navi Mumbai in June ??

sset said...

Skymet and IMD are with massive errors. 2 days back they showed red - orange alerts. Same with all statistical AI models. Vagaries was consistent and not hyping.

Nimish Thaker said...

The Monsoons past couple of years, I have noticed have behaved a bit erratically, it is an issue to accurately predict how a particular system is going to behave and therefore the resultant precipitation or the lack of it. Don't remember seeing such a dry June in Mumbai in a long time.

sset said...

on lighter note:
Seems war between 3Vs. Vishnu (supreme GOD-protector of universe_, Vayu(wind GOD- cyclone blow and disturbed SWM and dumped rains over Rajasthan) and Varuna(rain GOD - struggling to arrange beads back in thread)

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
For mumbai If there would be a thunder storm on monday and from east how can we say that it is monsoon?

Abizer kachwala said...

A very heavy spell of rain lashed Nagothane today for almost 2 hours in the afternoon.Winds were from the east.Again your forecast proved right

Gunjan said...

Sir, in your forecast did you mean to day that after Monday there will be another 3-4 days of no rain in Mumbai ??

Posted Monday 18th November : Unseasonal extra rainfall for some cities from cyclones Mid October-Mid November ----...