Saturday, June 08, 2019

Posted 8th June  Morning:

South West Monsoon over Sri Lanka. Albeit a weak Current.

From the Dept of meteorology , Sri Lanka:
(Issued at 05.30 a.m. on 08th June 2019)

South-west monsoon is established over the island. Therefore, showery and windy conditions are expected to enhance further (particularly in the South-western part).
"Heavy falls about 100-150 mm can be expected at some places (particularly in Kaluthara, Rathnapura, Galle, Matara, Gampaha and Kegalle districts).
Galle received 103 mms last 24 hrs."
As the UAC (LLC) till prevails and persists without change, and the weak Off shore trough also persist.  The chance s of Low Pressure developing are good off Kerala coast..Heralding the immediate arrival of the SWM.  

Mumbai: Next 3 days..Partly cloudy, with light drizzles in some parts. A thunder cell may float over the city from the East on Monday. 
Hot at 35c, and Humid will make it unbearable. Real feel around 41c. 
Proper Monsoon arrival depends on the two options given below, A or B for AS-1. But not before 15th June at least.

Pune: Next 3 days: Thunder Clouds likely to develop by evening/Night. Sharp showers with gusty winds in many areas of city. Rain possible in Pune District.


NilaY Wankawala said...

Thanks for the update sir- You are the Only Mr dependable like Rahul drivid for Monsoon Forecast for entire SWM season

emkay said...

IMD announces SWM over kerala. Earth.null siteshowing windpattern at 850,700,500 hpa all in alignment

NilaY Wankawala said...

Yes emkay

As Posted 6th June Evening under this blog

Posted 6th June Evening

"Shear Zone and OLR conditions and dominating South Westerlies make favourable conditions for the Monsoon to advance into Kerala by 7th/8th June."

IMD announces offcial arrival of SWM over kerala. Rajesh sir got the date bang on traget. Once again Monsoon met the date specified by Sir.

Atul P Naik said...

Than you Rajesh bhai for the update.

Your analysis is spot on! As always!

sset said...

Since last few years just before onset of SWM, Arabian sea hosts low pressure taking system to Yemen,Saudi,Oman...anything similar to 2018 Mekunu ? This may impact rain over Kerala/Karnataka (may result in below expectation reduced rains?)

Rajesh Kumar said...

@SSET : But last year , it was historical rain in kodagu region.Kaveri was over flowing in july itself.

Aks said...

Rajesh sir, Seems like AS1 has formed. Track as per GFS & ECMWF seems to be near the Indian coast which is a good news for all of us... Request your guidance whether Scenario A is materializing and if yes, when will the monsoon enter Mumbai region?

Nimish Thaker said...

I think cyclone will form in AS from the current system

sset said...

Skymet is hinting at red alert for GUJARAT extreme rains, + karachi - Arabian sea cyclone.

sset said...

But Rajesh - if current AS low would have penetrated Karnataka/Kerala - then we would received early bounty rains over interiors/cauvery catchments also... but as last few years, start of SWM first AS lows always tends to move northwards parallel to KAR,KER coast - but targets either Saudi,Yemen,Oman or Gujarat (hot spot for west coast cyclones). This will be no surprise if this happen then GUJ will be first to bag extreme 3 digit rains in 24hrs surpassing konkan,KAR.

Posted 15th June:                                                 Data compiled by Vagarian Abhijit and Map made by Vagarian Tejas Te...