Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Posted 11th June Evening
Severe Cyclone ;
 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  11 JUN 2019    Time :   124500 UTC
      Lat :   16:04:39 N     Lon :   70:48:10 E

     
    CI#         /Pressure    / Vmax
     4.5       / 971.2mb    / 77.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                4.5     4.5     3.5

 Center Temp : -81.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C

Vayu on course to strike land as shown..

Heavy rains to commence in Goa and Konkan from Wednesday...
Very heavy rains expected in Coastal  Saurashtra on Wednesday and Thursday. Some places getting upto 150+ mms. Interior Saurashtra will get rains on Thursday. Rains will spread into Kutch from Thursday. Isolated heavy falls in Kutch.
Monsoon advances into South Coastal Karnatak...
Monsoon will progress Northwards along coast with Vayu...

Mumbai: As explained,  Vayu will by pass Mumbai off shore on Wednesday, some 250-300 kms away. Thunder shower on Tuesday night and more rains with gusty winds on Wednesday.
No worries of extensive danger to Mumbai...but careful of flying objects from high winds and careful of rough seas and waves. 

Posted 11th June Afternoon:

Cyclone "Vayu" : Located:


 ADT-Version 9.0                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  11 JUN 2019    Time :   051500 UTC
      Lat :   15:22:50 N     Lon :   70:36:07 E

     
     CI#              /Pressure          / Vmax
     3.1             / 991.5mb          / 47.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                3.0     3.4     3.4

 Center Temp : -75.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C

Expected Track....
Heavy Rains expected in Kutch

Mumbai: Pre Monsoon Thunder showers lashed Mumbai on Monday Night: 
Thane AWS 75 mms, Scruz recorded 40 mms, Colaba 25 mms,
No need to panic due to Vayu...
The Cyclone VAYU will by pass Mumbai on 12th, about 250-300 kms away off shore in the West. 
However, strong winds upto around 50-60 kms from South will effect City from 12th.
Tuesday Night will see some thunder showers and Wednesday will be windy, cloudy and occasional rains, 
with around 20-30 mms in the day.
Some parts can get more.

Pune can see thunder showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Decrease in rains after Wednesday.

9 comments:

NilaY Wankawala said...

much needed update to calm nerves for mumbaikars

sset said...

Good article...

https://www.firstpost.com/india/cyclone-vayu-unlikely-to-be-as-destructive-as-fani-weather-condition-indicates-monsoon-floods-more-tropical-storms-6790691.html

Young readers please have a look 'how cyclone vayu was formed'

GUJ schools declare holiday, navy on alert!


sset said...

We see huge climate changes every year Arabian sea is hosting more cyclones during start and end of SWM. This leads to delay in retreat of SWM, Western disturbances are becoming more and more strong, frequent, longer duration - northern India, Rajasthan, Gujarat is becoming wetter.
True or not but south east India specially south Andhra Pradesh (Rayalseema,Anantapur,Chittor,Cuddpah) and many parts of northern+central Tamil Nadu, south east interior Karnataka are becoming deserts. Continuous droughts due to failure of North east monsoons and more important no low pressure systems are entering these regions. All go to Orissa or north east states.

sset said...

IMD issues red alert for Gujarat extreme torrential rains! Seems GUJ may receive its 20-25% SWM quota...

Other side Maharashtra will complete its last phase of 50 crore tree plantation this year! Great achievement for green initiative and reducing carbon footprint.

sset said...

2019 SWM seems to have violated all theories of monsoon.
Monsoon hardly touched Karnataka, has not even given any drops to Andhra Pradesh forget about Tamil Nadu - very weak onset for Kerala/ Sri Lanka (not like extreme widespread 3 digit figures on successive days). But cyclone forms over Arabian sea and takes away all moisture to north, Gujarat, Rajisthan - such rogue anomalies are increasing every year. Same happens with NEM - system move to Orissa or NE states instead of SE India.

sset said...

As predicted by Rajesh Sir monsoon is heading North!

irfman said...

Any changes of rain for Karachi in the aftermath of the cyclone Vayu?

Abizer kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,I am in Ahmedabad,whats the forecast..its extremely hot?

Nimish Thaker said...

Thank you for the update Rajeshbhai. Very helpful.

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