Posted 6th June Evening:
Heavy Pre Monsoon Showers have started lashing Kerala.
Rainfall as om 8.30 am Thursday 6th: Thrithala 112 mms, Vadakara 100 mms, Ponnani 63 mms, Kanjirapally 57 mms, Munnar and Pattambi 53 mms, Perinthalmanna 46 mms, Kodungallur 44 mms.
Shear Zone and OLR conditions and dominating South Westerlies make favourable conditions for the Monsoon to advance into Kerala by 7th/8th June.
AS-1: The Low pressure likely to form off the Kerala coast in 48 hrs will also add to the Monsoon advance into Kerala.
Low pressure will form and intensify.
A: In all likelihood, it will track North/North West, just steering off the West coast. In this case, the south West Monsoon will gear up and advance along the coast upto 20N within a week.
B: There is a another remote possibility of the system moving away from the coast after initial movement along the coast. In such a case, Monsoon may advance upto around 15N and then get "pulled away" till the AS-1 fizzles out.
Mumbai:The monsoon advance hinges on the movement and track of AS-1. Track A will bring in the actual South West Monsoon by 15th June. Track B will delay the arrival even beyond.
Friday/Saturday /Sunday: Partly cloudy skies and humid sweaty conditions. Days will be around 35c and nights 28/29c. High humidity will make it very uncomfortable as the real feel temperatures will be around 40c. Light drizzles likely in some areas of city.