Monday, August 01, 2016



MONSOON REPORT (01-7-2016 TO 31-7-2016)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-7-2016) 454.7 mm
SEASON +/- +0.4%
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                             700   mm 4.02
AVERAGE                                890   mm 7.14
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 10.58
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  7.45 mm
JULY RAINFALL (2016) 309.3 mm
AVERAGE JULY RAINFALL (1966 TO 2015) 281.6 mm
SURPLUS                                                                                                                                            # +9.8%
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS MONTH    mm
KONKAN & GOA 1322.50
COASTAL KARNATAKA 774.30
SHWB & SIKKIM 713.40
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 632.80
EAST MADHYA PRADESH 549.10
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS MONTH     mm
RAYALASEEMA 130.90
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 126.80
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 109.60
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY 86.70
WEST RAJASTHAN 80.00
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL THIS MONSOON    
RAYALASEEMA 60%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH 37%
VIDARBHA 36%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH 35%
EAST RAJASTHAN 34%
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL THIS MONSOON
KERALA -25%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA -26%
HIMACHAL PRADESH -27%
GUJARAT REGION -39%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH -49%
TOP FIVE STATES THIS MONTH    mm
DADAR & NAGAR HAVELI (UT) 1126.40
GOA 964.50
MEGHALAYA 708.10
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 632.80
MANIPUR 627.30
BOTTOM FIVE STATES THIS MONTH     mm
PUNJAB 140.80
CHANDIGARH (UT) 131.10
ANDHRA PRADESH 128.50
TAMIL NADU 87.00
PONDICHERRY (UT) 19.80
TOP FIVE STATES ABOVE NORMAL THIS MONSOON   
MADHYA PRADESH 36%
TAMIL NADU 35%
ANDHRA PRADESH 31%
MAHARASHTRA 22%
DELHI (UT) 17%
BOTTOM FIVE STATES BELOW NORMAL THIS MONSOON
CHANDIGARH (UT) -34%
NAGALAND -38%
MEGHALAYA -41%
GUJARAT -44%
PONDICHERRY (UT) -47%
TOP TEN DISTRICTS THIS MONTH    mm
EAST KHASI HILLS (meghalaya) 2579.80
LOWER DIBANG VALLEY (arunachal pradesh) 1813.60
RATNAGIRI (maharashtra) 1693.70
RAIGARH (maharashtra) 1386.10
EAST GARO HILLS (meghalaya) 1374.80
SINDHUDURG (maharashtra) 1254.90
CHIRANG (assam) 1227.40
JALPAIGURI (west bengal) 1218.20
EAST SIANG (arunachal pradesh) 1207.10
DARJEELING (west bengal) 1184.20
BOTTOM TEN DISTRICTS THIS MONTH     mm
RAMANATHAPURAM (tamil nadu) 25.90
JAISELMER (rajasthan) 25.20
TIRUNELVELI (tamil nadu) 25.20
NAGAPATTINAM (tamil nadu) 24.20
PUDUCHERY (pondicherry) 20.10
TIRUPPUR (tamil nadu) 20.00
KARAIKAL (pondicherry) 19.30
LAHUL&SPITI (himachal pradesh) 19.10
TUTICORIN (tamil nadu) 11.90
LEH AND LADAKH (jammu & kashmir) 2.30
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL DAYS this month 17  (55%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL DAYS this month 14 (45%)
# IMD figures are different as this is 50 year average source -IMD

34 comments:

rajesh said...

Superb presentation with intricate details...Excellent work ...Vagaries is the only site with such details

Vijith Menon said...

Rajesh sir- will be the low become more marked and travel west wards towards Maharashtra and Gujarat with heavy rains?

Sarvesh said...

Thanks, nice info

Vinod Desai said...

I feel till morning the rain amount could be 250 -300 mm. Rains are nonstop..the intensity has gone down though.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Within no time score card is ready. Such a great work. Superb.

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Heavy rain in Nashik region possible?

santosh verma said...

bhopal getting heavy rain ending 42 mm on 8:30 am today. look like a week with lot of heavy rain to offer due to low pressure area in bay

ugaap said...

Concise & very well compiled and informative !

Paresh Shah said...

Thanks a lot for such detailed info and clear presentation, as always!

Milan Kumar Batu said...

This is how yesterday's thunderstorm skipped Bhubaneswar Imd observatory area and pounded other parts of the district.. Rainfall ending at 8.30am today:-
Bhubaneswar (imd)-2mm(narrow escape)
Bologarh-82mm
Balianta-70mm
Tangi-51mm
Balipatna-37mm
Chilika-28mm

Milan Kumar Batu said...

Thunderstorm alert for coastal and interior Odisha:-

After 50 deaths and 100's of injuries due to lightning in coastal Odisha,today also people should be alert for such intense thundering event as the CAPE and Li Is too high..

sset said...

Konkan - maharashtra lows are consistently alternating Arabian sea UAC followed by Bay lows since june. Also UAC over Arabian sea are mostly over MAHA/GUJ region - guess that is reason coastal KAR and KER are having only 2 digit/moderate rains since june- this is not good for Cauvery - unless until we have break monsoon then maybe monsoon will revive over coastal KAR/KER - this was my previous observations.

sset said...

Thane region > 2200mm since june. Today 24 hrs rain exceeds 175mm....

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Wen would rain ease in mumbai

Cumulus Arjun said...

My area in Mumbai (Goregaon) highest in whole Mumbai with 267 mm yesterday

Nilay Wankawala said...

PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi, 1st August, 2016
Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
India Meteorological Department
Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during Second Half (August –September) of the 2016 Southwest Monsoon and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts

Highlights:
Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
 The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June
 The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ±4% as was forecasted in June.


1. Background and details of the 5- Parameter Operational Model
The forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2016 monsoon season has been prepared using a Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model based on 5 predictors with a model error of 8% of long period average (LPA). The LPA of the rainfall over the country as whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall) with a coefficient of variation (C.V) of 15%.

2. SST conditions in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans
The strong El Nino event of 2015-16 ended in May, 2016 and currently ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing. Latest forecast from ESSO-IMD-IITM coupled model indicates strong probability (70%) of neutral ENSO conditions to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season. However, some of the global models suggest development of weak La Nina conditions in the later part of the monsoon season. Over the Indian Ocean, there is 40% probability of the current negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.

3. Monsoon Mission Experimental Coupled Dynamical Forecast System
The experimental forecast based on the coupled dynamical model forecasting system suggest that rainfall during second half (August to September) of the 2016 monsoon season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 103% of long period model average.

4. Forecast for the Rainfall during the Second Half of the 2016 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
(a) Rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season (August to September) is most likely to be above normal (>106% of LPA) with a probability of 55%.
(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during second half of the season is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
(d) The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% ±4% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
Highlights:
 Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
 The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June
 The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ±4% as was forecasted in June.

Abhijit said...

@ Cumulus Arjun: No, that Goregaon is not of Mumbai. But it is Goregaon village from Ambernath taluka, Thane district and is just 5kms South of Badlapur

Shivkumar Mogal said...

continuous light to moderate rainfall in Nashik since 3 pm.

rajesh said...

Shivkumar Mogul: Rains expected in Nasik on Tuesday also. Good showers in region on Tuesday.

Sarvesh said...

Looks like Mumbai lakes will get filled in a week or so, 3 out of 7 already filled

Zohair said...

Rajesh sir waiting for ur update for 3rd to 6th aug

Vivek Oberoi said...

Rajesh sir,

What prospects for rainfall in Punjab over the next few days?

Thanks,

sset said...

Great work by Pradeep ji - even though from south, with great precision has captured all suburbs of Mumbai/Thane/Navi Mumbai

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Nashik lashed by rain received 102 mm till 8:30 am today. Godavari river again flooded. still heavy rain continue.

Srivathsa said...

Today's lake levels

Bhatsa - 813/942
Middle Vaitarna - 157/195
Upper Vaitarna - 236/331
Modak Sagar - 129/129
Tansa - 145/145
Vihar - 28/28
Tulsi - 8/8

4 out of 7 lakes full. The way Bhatsa is filling up it is a matter of a few days. Just yesterday it increased by 86Mcum. Just 262Mcum to go for all lakes to fill.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology


Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 2 August 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

La Niña WATCH remains, while strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues
Despite some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters, ENSO indicators remain neutral and well shy of La Niña thresholds. In contrast, a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues, with ocean temperature well above average in the eastern Indian Ocean and below average near Africa.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the negative IOD will persist until the end of spring, which historically has brought increased rainfall to southern Australia. Sea surface temperatures have cooled slightly in the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight. Some atmospheric indicators have shifted slightly towards La Niña thresholds, but all remain within neutral bounds.

All climate models indicate more cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, but only two of eight models exceed La Niña thresholds for an extended period. A La Niña WATCH (indicating a 50% chance of La Niña in 2016) remains, but if La Niña does develop it would most likely be weak.

May to July 2016 was Australia's third-wettest May–July on record. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences above average winter–spring rainfall and cooler than average daytime temperatures, with warmer daytime and night-time temperatures in northern Australia.

sset said...

Mumbai soon to touch 2000mm marks (on an average 1000mm every month). Harnai likely to cross 5000mm mark. Mahabaleshwar receives 400mm rain yesterday.
Seems MAHA is bent on capturing entire rain across country.
Kerala dry conditions -> paddy,spices,coffee impacted. SriLanka same no rain since May.
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-kerala/less-rain-is-pain-for-farmers/article8919901.ece

Pankaj Jani said...

what is Rainy day record this year till now?

sset said...

GUJ joins MAHA for regular 3 digit rains.... (in cms today)
DHARAMPUR (DIST VALSAD) 35, PARDI (DIST VALSAD) 31, VAPI (DIST VALSAD) 29, DAMAN (DIST DAMAN) 27, KAPRADA (DIST VALSAD) 25, NANIPALSON (DIST VALSAD) 22, SILVASSA (DIST DADARA & NAGAR HAVELI) 21, MADHBUN (DIST DADARA & NAGAR HAVELI) 18, KHERGAM (DIST NAVSARI) 16, UMERGAM (DIST VALSAD) 16, WAGHAI (DIST DANGS) 13, GANDEVI (DIST NAVSARI) 12, CHIKHLI (DIST NAVSARI) 11, VANSDA (DIST NAVSARI) 10, SUBIR (DIST DANGS) 10

poor rains in coastal KAR... Mahabaleshwar along with Gaint Harnai take over Augumbe..

Sarvesh said...

Bhatsa dam all 5 gates are open, discharge started, fills 92 percent will overflow anytime

Abhijit said...

Nashik 153mm till 5.30pm today in last 9hrs !! Seasonal total stands on 785mm till 5.30pm..
With this crossed annual normal average of 680mm !!

Remember Nashik was just on 12mm till 30th June 2016 which was in huge deficit by 88% & now jumps into excess category so we can term it as Vagaries of the Weather

Abhijit said...

Nashik recorded massive 189mm rainfall till 8.30pm today in last 12hrs !! With this broken the all time 24hrs highest rainfall for Aug month of 168mm which was recorded in Aug 1968 !!

kaushik nayak said...

I agree with SSET. No rain at all in July for coastal Karnataka.But, Konkan has received excess rains. Not sure If it could be due to climate change.

Abhijit said...

Mighty Godavari river's origin Trimbakeshwar recorded 206mm till 8.30pm today in last 12hrs !