Posted Monday 22nd August:
Mumbai seeing (almost) dry days. The city has seen only 34 mms and Scruz 23 mms in the last 10 days. That's a very Low figure for peak Monsoon 10 days !
The Monsoon axis having shifted North brought a "break Monsoon" condition to the city (and State). However, 2 systems from the Bay approached the Eastern coast, and the systems tacked through Central India.
The Western end of the Monsoon Axis remained in the far North, almost over Punjab. Hence this prevented the West coast off shore trough from getting activated. As explained several times, the seasonal Low of the axis must slide South, almost over Kutch to create a proper strong off shore trough along the west coast.
I do not see any dramatic change in the situation. In fact the axis and upper level winds do not seems favourable for meaningful Monsoon revival along Maharashtra Coast next 8 days.
After Wednesday 24th, Axis is "cuddled" in the Himalayan Foothills !
Mumbai will be getting warmer, with stuffy nights. Tuesday may see some showers, but thereafter Partly cloudy skies with few passing showers ( 5-7 mms at the most per day). This may be the scene till 30th August.
Maharashtra interior will also see low rainfall till this month end.Days getting hotter.
Gujarat already in the deficit, may get scanty rains after Tuesday.