1. BB-10 persists off the AP coast. Rain effect seen in SW and South segment. Expected to cross North AP coast on Sunday as expected.
2. Machillipatnam received heavy rains on Saturday (5 cms).Chennai measured 14 mms till 8.30 pm Saturday.
Mumbai Lakes Position as on 27th August: (With % full )
Modak Sagar 97.7%, Tansa 99.5%,Vihar 97.6%, Tulsi 98.8%, Upper Vaitarna 93.2%, Bhatsa 87.1% and Middle Vaitarna 99.5%. Total Storage 13.35 Mcum...that is 348 days..upto 10th Auguat 2017.
Posted Friday Night:
Much is being talked about the South West Monsoon "failing' or letting us down with the current break Monsoon conditions. I do not apprehend much to this. This breaking conditions were expected, while the rains continued in M.P. and parts of UP and Himachal. Even though the current deficit of the Monsoon in India has become -3%, we have almost another 1 month of good rains to recover the deficit, and there is no need to change the original estimate of +4%.
Though the normal rains in September are low, if we get heavy showers, amounting to good figures, the deficit can and may be wiped out.
We see an early BB-10 taking shape and reviving the Monsoon in Northern Peninsula regions soon.
A surprise (and welcome) Low pressure , BB-10, has formed earlier than expected off the North A.P. coast. As the Low pressure tilts upwards towards the upper air (South East wards), a off shore trough from the system runs Southwards along the East Coast.
BB-10 is likely to track North initially and cross the A.P./Odisha coast by Sunday.
As a result, rainfall will occur in heavy falls along the North TN, AP coast, with fairly good rains in Odisha on Saturday.
Indications of BB-10 late tracking W/NW are strong.
An UAC forming over South Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat region strengthens the core of the seasonal Low in Southern Pakistan/adjoining Rajasthan region, which in turn will increase rainfall along the West coast of India, Southern Rajasthan and North Gujarat, Saurashtra ( got good rains on Friday) and Southern Sindh in Pakistan.
Mumbai: Frequent showers on Saturday and Sunday, some heavy.Chance of thunder also possible. Basically weekend will be frequented with regular showers, an increase in frequency over last week's performance.
Ahmadabad: Fairly good rainfall on Saturday and more frequent with heavy showers on Sunday. Saturday and Sunday may see accumulated 45-50 mms.
Surat: With the off shore trough strengthening, the Northern point of the trough will see good showers. Surat will get thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday, with cumulative 2 days amounting to around 30-40 mms.
Karachi: Chances of thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday. But, not very heavy, as only heavy showers in some parts are likely to be occurring.
Chennai: Thunder showers, some heavy, will occur this weekend, with around 30 mms of rain accumulating on Saturday and Sunday.