Thursday, June 16, 2016

Posted Thursday 16th Night:

Monsoon continues to bring good rains to Goa and South Konkan. In Goa, Dabolim total this June is 607 mms, Mormugao 598 mms, Snquelim 500 mms and Panjim total rainfall in June is 462 mms. Some places in South Konkan like Malvan are nearing 600 mms !
Some rainfall amounts in cms last 24 hrs in Goa and South Konkan: 16-SANQUELIM, 13- POND, 11- MARMUGOA, 10- VENGURLA, 9-DABOLIM,  ELA, 7- PERNEM,  SANGUEM,  6- KANKAVALI, QUEPEM,  5- PANJI, MARGOA,4–DODAMARG, MAPUSA, CANACONA, 3- KUDAL, SAWANTWADI, MALVAN, 2- VAIBHAVWADI, VAIPOI, 1- DEVGAD, RADHANAGARI

Well, the announced UAC has formed off the East Coast. But i do not see much support to the system from the "host" trough. 
There is a possibility that the UAC may just track inland and move towards Telengana/Vidharbh on Saturday and fizzle out by Sunday.
Showers for Hyderabad on Saturday. 
Heavy rains in Vidharbh on Saturday. 
A wet 2/3 days for Akola Region from Saturday. Showers expected, some heavy . I would estimate around 15-20 mms/day average from Saturday. But there could be an isolated pocket of heavy falls which may measure a bit more.

Sympathy strengthening of off shore trough, and rains will occur along Coastal Karntaka and Konkan on from Saturday 18th night thru Monday 20th. 
Important: Rains intensity likely to increase in drought stricken Marathwada from Saturday. Many places will get medium to heavy showers for 3 days. 
Aurangabad will see showers increasing from Saturday, with heavy rains on Sunday and Monday.

This can push in a weak Monsoon current into North Konkan (Including Mumbai), Vidharbha, South Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada on Sunday 19th June.
Monsoon will also move into West Bengal (Kolkata), Telengana and N.I.Karnataka around Sunday 19th.

Mumbai: Friday will be partly cloudy with a few showers in some parts of city. Hot and sultry.
Saturday will see an increase in rain intensity from evening. Saturday night will see frequent showers, maybe measuring around 25 mms by Sunday morning.
Sunday: More frequent showers with strong winds and with overcast day. In 24 hrs till Monday morning, many parts of Mumbai would record upto 35-40 mms. 

Northern and Eastern Outer Townships of Mumbai can get similar increase in rains from Saturday Night. Rain recording in Eastern Townships will be a bit more than Mumbai.

Pune: Partly cloudy on Friday and Saturday with some passing rains in parts. Rainy Sunday, keeping the day cool at 25c.

North Konkan (Roha) would see an increase in rainfall intensity from Saturday. Heavy falls expected on Saturday night and Sunday, and rainfall may total 50 mms on Sunday.

29 comments:

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
When was the most delayed monsoon onset for mumbai in past.

rajesh said...

Vinod: You will get this and more details in the "Vagaries Extreme". Link is on the top of this main page.

ameya said...

Sir so the onset of monsoon does not seem to be a strong one. Is the situation expected to increase early next week

Shitij said...

What about Surat sir?? Whether Surat will also get rains on Saturday and Sunday? ?

Vijayanand said...

Heard from a source today that Indian Ocean is warmer than normal this june and also historically warm indian ocean at the beginning of SW season has lead to good monsoon rains over Indian Subcontinent.

Hope it comes true.

gaurav raninga said...

Sir,any expected dates for monsoon onset over gujarat and saurashtra???

sridhar. rajagopalan said...

HI Rajesh, Vagaries Extreme page seems to be infected , my Norton security is blocking me from visiting that page..!!! with the message of "Site Infected".. Pls check.

Shivkumar Mogal said...

What about Nashik? Any chances of good rain?

rajesh said...

sridhar: Vagaries Extreme blog is ok. I have checked from different devices and all pages opening fine. Please check your firewall.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Sir, will Heavy rains start from 18th evening or there will be moderate rains?

Sam Khan said...

very heavy rains will commence in Mumbai from sunday night thru monday and on

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,thank you for mentioning roha region in your post.I urge you to keep on posting forecasts about my region.I follow vagaries forecast daily and I keep on telling others to visit vagaries for obtaining weather related information.

rajesh said...

Shivkumar: Nasik may also get some pre monsoon showers on Saturday and Sunday.
Gaurav: I see some showers (pre monsoon) for Eastern Gujarat region (upto Ahmadabad) this Saturday and Sunday.

Proper Monsoon still 5/6 days away.

Tejas Baxi said...

Borivali, Mumbai received a heavy shower at 3.55 to 4.10mm. 24 hr rain ending 8.30am was 9.5mm

Tejas Baxi said...

3.55am to 4.10am not mm!!
Sorry

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,no rains seem to fall this evening ,its sunny at 5:35pm here in nagothane near roha?will it rain heavily tonight as per your forecast or its shifted to sunday?

sarfarajkhan khan said...

Sir pls update about circulation which was formed Bob; will mumbai receive rains on Saturday and Sunday as u forecasted.

sset said...

Seems good rains in stock for MP!

Karan Kumbhar said...

Rare event
Monsoon enters interior Maharashtra from vidarbha side ....last time this happened was about 10 years ago as posted by news agencies.

sarfarajkhan khan said...

Where is the monsoon,where is the rain...will mumbai see some rain in June... feeling really sad

parshuram shinde said...

Santacruz getting light rain and on off showers. With overcast condition now...hope mumbai will get havey shower..

sset said...

see vageries 2014 june/july note differences. June-July exactly opposite for Mumbai. July had record breaking rains - with all lakes/dams overflowing...

Vinod Desai said...

No rains on saturday and even today its just cloudy with very light rain in mumbai.

Vinod Desai said...

Winds are NW today.

sset said...

As predicted by vageries - Navi Mumbai continuous heavy rain !! Seems proper monsoon...

Florence Khape said...

Heavy rains in Goregaon and areas in mumbai!!

Karan Kumbhar said...

No rain in Pune as well
When will a strong system such a LPA form in bay of Bengal. All weather systems until now have been feeble.

parshuram shinde said...

OH FINALLY SANTACRUZ AND ALL MUMBAI RECIVING HAVEY TO LIGHT RAIN...

sset said...

Last year 2015 june rains for MAHA/GUJ was spectacular. Twin lows brought 700mm of rain in 24hrs for GUJ while MAHA received rains in range of 500mmin 24hrs multiple days!!