Sunday, June 12, 2016

Posted Sunday Afternoon (12th June):

South West Monsoon seems to be liking the Goa environment ! A progress towards Maharahtra (and further) seems to have been halted, for the time being !
Why ? 
What we need for the Monsoon to progress is proper "depth" of wind from the 700 hpa levels, if not from 500 hpa levels. Here "depth" means reverse, the depth from 500 hpa levels down to sea levels.
And what is happening now? 
On Friday night /Saturday morning we had a nicely developing UAC in the 500 hpa level off the Goa/ South Konkan coast...perfect..but...this UAC has suddenly vanished as on Sunday morning, and also the off shore West coast trough has become feeble. "What came first" is the question. (I should not have mentioned the UAC may become weak in my last post :-)).
How did the trough become weak ?
The trough has become weak due to the core pressure in the seasonal low rising to 996 mb....this is the main "fulcrum " of the off shore trough. 
And will the Upper winds return back to strong Westerly conditions ? 
How can they when we see a " High" developing at that level...and a "High" means the coast will get North/ North-West winds.

So, the Monsoon progress will halt for at least 3/4 days further from Goa along the West coast. In the Interior Peninsula, the Monsoon will ge stuck at S.I. Karnataka for the next 3/4 days. 
Cloudy weather and few isolated showers in Marathwada and Vidharbha till Thursday. Vidharbha region will be cloudy with few showers in pockets, not worthy of a
sowing indications for farmers.

This will also mean delayed advance beyond 20th for Gujarat and M.P. Feel the Gujarat and M.P. regions may have to wait longer than what we had calculated initially.

Mumbai: Day warming up. Next 3 days will be partly cloudy with passing showers in parts of City, daily rainfall not exceeding 7-10 mms. Decreasing rain after Monday. Monsoon cannot set in before 17th June.

Cloudy weather for North Konkan (Pen, Roha, Panvel), with passing showers for the next 3/4 days.Goa and South Konkan may get continued sporadic showers.

Pune will be partly cloudy with light ains in some parts. Proper Monsoon ot reaching before 18th June.

Surat: Sorry, nothing except hot sultry weather for Surat thru the coming week. A stray shower from passing clouds.

Monsoon advancing into NE States in the next 2/3 days. Sikkim too, will see Monsoon showers in a few days. But, It will be at least 18th June, for Monsoon into West Bengal. 
Kolkata will touch 40c again early next week, and may not receive Monsoon rains before Saturday 18th.

9 comments:

gaurav raninga said...

At a time When news coming from every direction about above normal monsoon this year.....seems monsoon taking test of our patience.....more 10 days from here seems very long time for areas of saurashtra which facing severe water shortage.....

emkay said...

Indeed it was an uneventful trip in high skies kochi Delhi today morning. No cloud tops worth mentioning and only light turbulence.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Sir, will the temperature be as hot as it was in main summer?

ANOOP RAWAT said...

with this speed, monsoon will not reach delhi before 5th july.

rajesh said...

Arun: Currently the M.P. region is seeing moderate heat. In next few days, heat wave will shift Eastwards to Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar and parts of Gangetic West Bengal.
Anoop: After this stalling, when the Monsoon current picks up, the moment towards Delhi should be quick.

Sam Khan said...

Rajesh , sir hope rains revive soon over mumbai

Wasim Athar said...

At last Calcutta is receiving heavy rain thunder and lightning right now. A big big relief from the excruciating sultry weather from the past 2 days

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,after arrival of monsoon in mumbai /konkan on 18/19th of june,is heavy rain expected after or from 19th june?what will be the amount of rain in north konkan between 19-23rd june?

kako sehr said...

I think in association with an approaching mjo, easterlies are picking up by 16 june and progress further north and west, by 20th the easterlies seems to be touching south rajhistan, so i m sure onsets would pick up pace after setting in nmmt and assam, further advancement seems rapid