Monday, June 06, 2016

Posted on Monday 6th  Night 

Favourable conditions like upper winds, upper air troughs and OLR bring the SWM closer to Karnatak Coast. 
An UAC (off shore) prevails off the Karnatak coast...and the off shore trough strengthens...Monsoon may close in on Karnatak coast and S.I. Karnatak and Goa by 8th or 9th June. 

The current off shore trough (West Coast) can stretch from Mumbai to Kerala in a couple of days. 
As mentioned in previous post, heavy pre monsoon thunder showers lashed Goa on Monday night...Vagaries Goa gauge recorded 74 mms in 2 hrs on Monday evening (Atul Naik reported).

Good Precipitation Continues in Kerala, some readings (in mms) as on Monday 6th Morning:More heavy rains expected in Kerala next 48 hrs..

Piravom(PRV) 64.8
Alappuzha(ALP) 45.8,Chengannur(CGR) 22.0,Cherthala(CRL) 17.2
Vadakara(VKA) 12.0 Kayamkulam(KYK) 17.4
Kayamkulam Agri(KYK_A) 42.8, Mancompu(MCP) 56.6
Vyttiri (VYT) 34.3 Mavelikkara(MVK) 33.4
Pookot(PKT)(ARG*) Kanjirappally(KJP) 15.0
 Kottayam(KTM) 22.8, Kozha (KHA) 30.8
Vaikom(VKM) 80.0,Idukki(IDK) 28.4
Alathur(ALR) 17.5 Munnar(MNR) 15.6
Kollengode(KLG) 16.2 Peermade(PMD) 32.0
 Thodupuzha(TDP) 18.4, Konni(KNI) 19.0
Parambikulam(PRK) Kurudamannil(KML) 45.4

Kolkata had heavy pre monsoon showers on Monday, with DumDum recording 45 mms and Alipore 16 mms in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST.

Port Blair in Andaman recorded a heavy 109 mms in the same 12 hrs on Monday.


Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain in central and east bangalore last night. The system cam from south west and moved east. Clear south west monsoon behavior.

Bommanahalli 46mm
HSRLayout 62mm
Koramangala 57mm
City IMD 48mm

Neeraj said...

IMD still holding back from declaring monsoon onset.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 7 June 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Tropical Pacific Ocean continues its cooling trend
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have been at neutral levels for the past four weeks, with the central Pacific Ocean having recently cooled to levels close to the long-term average. Temperatures below the tropical Pacific Ocean surface are much cooler than average. In the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are at neutral levels. The latest monthly SOI, +2.8 for May 2016, is the highest value since May 2014.

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. This suggests around a 50% likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016. International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios. At least one model suggests La Niña conditions may be short lived, returning to neutral by October.

Typically during La Niña, winter-spring rainfall is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia.

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to cover much of the Indian Ocean. Recent values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index have dipped below the negative IOD threshold of -0.4. However it will take several more weeks of similar temperatures before a negative IOD event is considered established. Model outlooks suggest a negative IOD event may form during the austral winter. A negative IOD typically brings increased winter-spring rainfall to southern Australia.

Hrishikesh said...

Sir when will we get rains the evening thunderstorms in Mumbai?

Shitij said...

Rajesh sir when will we get 1st proper rain showers in Surat? ?

Unknown said...

If parameters are alright , can imd still keep quiet??

Pankaj Jani said...

At this speed Monsoon will reach Mumbai not before 20th June. Rajesh Sir,please give your comments on IMD's today's upadte:

Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some parts of south Arabian sea, Maldive, Comorin area & some more parts of southwest Bay of
Bengal. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes  through Lat. 7.0°N/ Long.60.0°E, Lat. 7.0°N/ Long. 70.0°E,  Lat. 7.0°N / Long. 79.0°E, Lat.
11.0°N / Long. 87.0°E, Lat. 14.0°N/ Long.90.0°E and Lat. 17.0°N/ Long. 95.0°E.
♦  In view of Strengthening of cross equatorial flow & deepening of westerlies over south Arabian sea and development of feeble off­shore trough
along Karnataka­Kerala coast, onset of monsoon over Kerala is very likely by 9th June 2016.

Unknown said...

rajesh sir,when will it rain in pen,roha?

Atul said...

Rajesh sir, Pune not getting pre monsoon showers from yesterday. What may be the reason?

Vinod Desai said...

No pre monsoon rains in mumbai yet.when will we get thundershowers.

Rajesh said...

Hrishikesh/Vinod/Atul: I had mentioned ( in Saturday post) that the off shore trough from 5th June will strengthen off the Karnataka coast and will extend from Karnataka to Kerala. On Saturday i had therefore expected the Monsoon to move into coastal Karnataka.
This happening got stalled and halted for a couple of days, and now i expect the off shore trough to strengthen from 7th une. I have accordingly delayed the SWM from moving into Coastal and S.I. Karnataka to 8th June in Monday's post.

Similarly, Mumbai thunder showers we expected on Monday and Tuesday also got a 2/3 day push. Expect thunder showers again from Thursday 9th.Even possible on Wednesday in some parts.
From Saturday 11th, we shall get heavy showers, maybe 35-40 mms on Saturday night.

Pune also got delayed, but from Pune had a short break, and expect showers again from Wednesday. Heavy again on Friday.

Shitij: Surat will start getting from Sunday , the trough extending Northwards by then.

Abizer: Thunder showers expected in your region (Initial weak) on Thursday, but heavy on Saturday and Sunday.

Pankaj: I have answered your question and given my views in "comments" of Saturday 4th Post.

Meanwhile Monsoon is active in Kerala, with Aryankavu getting 61 mms, Vaikom 60 mms and several stations between 40-60 mms. Monsoon is also precipitating good rains in T.N.

Mohsin mulla said...

Rajesh sir,
Currently the monsoon active over kerela to karnatka coast and goa also receive monsoon rain in coming days.but after reaching goa bbc website showing monsoon becoming once gain weak and not reached mumbai and south gujrat.the weak off shore only running from goa to kerela next week.
Sir ur view on that..

Unknown said...

Rajesh sir,monsoon onset over kerela declared by imd on 8th june.Conditions remain favourable for further advancement of SWM over remaining parts of kerela,more parts of coastal and SI karnataka and south A.P in next two days.sir when will monsoon reach mumbai?

Salim Ramani , Jabalpur said...

When will monsoon reach Jabalpur ?

VISHWAS said...

Lots of clouds over konkan Goa and karnataka cost....

Rajesh said...

Moshin: Keeping you posted in blog ...

Rajesh said...

Moshin/Pankaj: shall keep posting in blog as and when things develop or change...if no change then posted view is final

Rajesh said...

Salim Ramani: MP should get proper Monsoon after 18th...pre monsoon showers 3/4 days prior to that

Outlook for next week till Thursday 29th February: Temperatures expected to rise across Maharashtra and Gujarat. Chance of thunderstorms for...