South West Monsoon will advance into Remaining Coastal Karnataka and Goa in next 24 hrs.
The off shore trough remains from Karnataka to Kerala, with a UAC embedded off Goa /Karnataka.
Thus with Monsoon arriving in Goa by 10th, as yet all along Coast Vagaries' Monsoon date is on Schedule (See original map here).
So, why so much doubt about arrival in Mumbai...I now answer comments like." Is the Monsoon arrival in Mumbai delayed to 13th ? " and " Some models show arrival on 13th "...I don't see the confusion at all...Vagaries' date is given as 13th/14th June way back in MW-3. We have not mentioned any change to that.
Yes, there is an absence of the pre monsoon thunder showers in Mumbai region. And the heat also is stifling (Vagaries recorded Minimum of 30.0c on Thursday morning). This has created impatience and restlessness amongst the Mumbaikars !
With alto cumulus clouds appearing in Mumbai skies on Thursday evening, we can expect some light rains on Friday 10th night. Showers with lightening on Saturday 11th evening. Some moderately heavy thunder showers on Sunday night . However, the heavy thunder shower may come with the Monsoon itself.
Very windy from Monday 13th. If all goes as per schedule, Monsoon expected in Mumbai on 14th/15th June. (Those interested in deep knowledge, see 200 jet streams changing after 13th and 14th June around 18N-20N.)
Monsoon North Limit restricted to North Konkan till 15th June.
As the core of the seasonal low deepens to 990 mb, from the current 996 mb, we immediately see the off shore trough strengthening from Maharashtra coast to Kerala from 13th.
Cloudy with showers in Pune this weekend.
South West Monsoon will advance into NE States in next 48 hrs, covering the entire region.
Monsoon expected in Kolkata by Wednesday 15th, observing the progress of the Eastern Branch.