Thursday, June 09, 2016

Posted Thursday 9th Night:

South West Monsoon will advance into Remaining Coastal Karnataka and Goa in next 24 hrs. 
The off shore trough remains from Karnataka to Kerala, with a UAC embedded off Goa /Karnataka.

Thus with Monsoon arriving in Goa by 10th, as yet all along Coast Vagaries' Monsoon date is on Schedule (See original map here).
So, why so much doubt about arrival in Mumbai...I now answer comments like." Is the Monsoon arrival in Mumbai delayed to 13th ? " and " Some models show arrival on 13th "...I don't see the confusion at all...Vagaries' date is given as 13th/14th June way back  in MW-3. We have not mentioned any change to that. 

Yes, there is an absence of the pre monsoon thunder showers in Mumbai region. And the heat also is stifling (Vagaries recorded  Minimum of 30.0c on Thursday morning). This has created impatience and restlessness amongst the Mumbaikars !

With alto cumulus clouds appearing in Mumbai skies on Thursday evening, we can expect some light rains on Friday 10th night. Showers with lightening on Saturday 11th evening. Some moderately heavy thunder showers on Sunday night . However, the heavy thunder shower may come with the Monsoon itself.
Very windy from Monday 13th. If all goes as per schedule, Monsoon expected in Mumbai on 14th/15th June. (Those interested in deep knowledge, see 200 jet streams changing after 13th and 14th June around 18N-20N.)

Monsoon North Limit restricted to North Konkan till 15th June.

As the core of the seasonal low deepens to 990 mb, from the current 996 mb, we immediately see the off shore trough strengthening from Maharashtra coast to Kerala from 13th.

Cloudy with showers in Pune this weekend. 

South West Monsoon will advance into NE States in next 48 hrs, covering the entire region.
Monsoon expected in Kolkata by Wednesday 15th, observing the progress of the Eastern Branch.


Zohair said...

Many models showing seasonal low going to drop to some serious extent i.e 985

Karan Kumbhar said...

Thanks sir
Your analysis made so long ago is almost fully accurate.
Happy monsoons !!

Neeraj said...

I am interested in the eastern branch. Normal arrival date of 10th june (today) is not going to be met, can a week's delay be expected ?

Mohsin mulla said...

Rajesh sir,
Condition look very bleak for mumbai and north konkan and south gujrat.only drizzel and very light rain forcast for this place.monsoon became weak one again and next week also there is no heavy rain predicted in mumbai.finger cross..u r view sir u r not answer my last question also..

Unknown said...

Rajesh sir,thanks for answering my question.Sir,do you think that MJO is or isn,t necessary for a normal monsoon,or only neutral conditions or la nina in the later half of the season is enough for a good monsoon.Besides,what is your forecast about my north konkan region in the coming days?

NilaY Wankawala said...

Passing shower as forecasted by sir @ borivali west just now arrd 9 55 pm Friday night

Tejas Baxi said...

Borival,Mumbai received a short shower of 0.9mm at around 10pm

vikas hunk gay said...

When indore and Ujjain will get rain,,
West mp

Rajesh said...

Moshin: I answered your and other queries in the article itself. Monsoon will progress up to Mumbai by 14th...including North konkan.
Abizer: MJO is one of the factors to consider, but in our region, the Bay brings systems "in situ", meaning it generates in the Bay. With Positive MJO, it can help, but not always necessary.

Rajesh said...

Vikas: I have answered same query 2 days back...MP will get Monsoon after 18th/19th June. Showers may start 2 days prior to that.

salil said...

Super yeah. Dadar Mumbai pouring since last 40min. Proper Southwest Monsoon clouds movement. As I type one lightning struck with thunder. Dadar Mumbai received 11mm till 8:30am . First double figure for the season.

Posted 7th Night:   Many regions of Western, Central and some parts of Northern plains of India to heat up to above normal temperatures on 9...