Thursday, May 05, 2016

Monsoon Watch -3... 2016 (Additional)...May 5th 2016.

The arrival date is calculated seeing today's position.Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress.This initial estimated dates are subject to some changes, and will be finalised around mid-May, when the puzzle pieces get better arranged.
(Dates in brackets are the normal dates of arrival).

As of today, there seems to be a slight delay in both, Arabian Sea and Bay Branches of the Monsoon. There continues to be a doubt on the timely arrival of the Monsoon in the Bay branch.

Arabian Sea Branch: Though there is some improvement in some of the parameters, there is still much to be achieved, and most parameters are still lagging behind time, and are -ve.
The Arabian Sea branch, now affected by the temporary "dis-organisation " in the equatorial winds at the equator, can recover provided the winds regroup fast.

On these calculations, Vagaries would maintain the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 24th of May 2016 (20th May), Sri Lanka around 27th/28th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 4th/5th June (1st June).
Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 10th June (5th June). NE States can also see Monsoon resume around that date.

Mumbai by 13th/14th June (9th June). Pre Monsoon thunder showers could start from around 7th/8th June 2016.

Bay Branch: A Western Disturbance (M-1) is active the Northern regions of the sub continent, and will gain strength by the 5th and 6th. Back to back, we may see M-2 around 12th May...if it happens, may lead to a delay the formations of any Low in the Bay.

Bay branch needs to wait a few days for the the pulses from the East in the Bay to resume for Low formations. 

SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 17th.May (12th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 20th May 2016.
Generally moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 11th/12th of June.

We stop at this initial progress, and work out further region wise progress at a later date  (as is the usual practise in Vagaries' MWs).

These Dates are worked out and estimated as per my personal calculations and may not be used for commercial purposes.The dates are not binding on anyone and no responsibility is taken if used for any purposes.


Abhijit Modak said...

Awesome work Sir & feeling proud that we Vagarians are able to learn SWM unfolding from you.. :) Vagaries is first to announce (estimate) onset date for Andaman islands & mainland Kerala as its the gateway for India and further till commercial captial Mumbai..

Mohsin mulla said...

Hi rajesh sir.
Awesome work and so proud sharing weather experince with you.hope ur estimate may be true.i have one question. Some international module predicted low or DD formation in central arabian sea or it may be 1st cyclone of the to early to comment but your view on that..

NilaY Wankawala said...

So finally dates are out...We really feel proud to be a part of vagaries...Appreciate your work as always been...

Narayanan chennai said...

Very nice reading of monsoon onset put by rajesh sir

Srikanth said...

Thanks for the updates Sir. So we are looking at a delayed onset likely. Dont think we are going to see any impact on precipitation pattern because of the delayed onset. Fingers crossed.

Rohit Aroskar said...

We love to follow the Monsoon watch series as much as we love the monsoon .. :) :)

Rohit Aroskar said...

Yday (WD aftereffect).. Jaisalmer (Raj) ..32 / 25 was milder than Mumbai SCZ .. 34 / 25 as well as Pachmarhi (MP) .. 33 / 25

Atul P Naik said...

Always learning so much from your Monsoon Watch series. Looking forward to the Monsoons as they unfold through your blog!

Vishal said...

Any contest for arrival dates in Mumbai sir?

Rajesh said...

Thanks everyone for the encouraging words...keeps me going :-)
Cyclones in last week of May in Arabian Sea are not rare...lets see.

Monsoon date arrival contest will not be practical, as we know the window for arrival date in Kerala is very small.

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sorry to deviate sir , but you said that madhya maharshtra will see rains between 4th-6th of may , but weather here was clear and dry . when can we expect rain as this region is missing action while entire country is receiving rainfall.

Rajesh said...

Karan: Rains have eluded South Madhya Mah.Kalwan, Dindori, Niphad talukas of nashik district recorded hailstorm yesterday.Vidharbh got rains. Int Karnataka also got good rains . Bangalore 46 mms.

Sunny Arora said...

Sir seems the Arabian Sea will develop a cyclonic storm by mid may and will weaken the progress of the monsoon. This activity seems provide good rains to NW India and Pakistan

 26th Day Temperatures..Mumbai cooler than Pune,Nasik and Same as Mahabaleshwar