All India Monsoon Position District wise up to 3rd August
MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2015 TO 31-7-2015) | |
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-7-2015) | 429.8 mm |
SEASON +/- | -5% |
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER required per day-------> | mm |
MINIMUM 700 mm | 4.43 |
AVERAGE 890 mm | 7.54 |
MAXIMUM 1100 mm | 10.99 |
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY | 7.05 mm |
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE AUG AVERAGE (262 mm) | 8.45 mm |
TOP NINE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015) | |
WEST RAJASTHAN 287.8 mm | 117% |
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL 850.7 mm | 48% |
WEST MADHYA PRADESH 582.3 mm | 47% |
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 390.4 mm | 42% |
JAMMU & KASHMIR 354.6 mm | 38% |
EAST RAJASTHAN 393.6 mm | 37% |
JHARKHAND 612 mm | 15% |
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 298.7 mm | 13% |
GUJARAT REGION 517.7 mm | 11% |
BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015) | |
N M M T 623.6 mm | -25% |
KONKAN & GOA 1362.5 mm | -25% |
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA 288.7 mm | -26% |
COASTAL KARNATAKA 1492.1 mm | -26% |
KERALA 969.6 mm | -30% |
BIHAR 353.6 mm | -31% |
EAST U.P. 274.4 mm | -32% |
RAYALASEEMA 102.5 mm | -37% |
N. I. KARNATAKA 128.1 mm | -47% |
MARATHWADA 145.8 mm | -56% |
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015) | 24 (39%) |
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015) | 37 (61%) |
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS IN JULY | 9 (29%) |
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS IN JULY | 22 (71%) |
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See Latest Weather Update on Current Weather Page | source -IMD |
7 comments:
Again MP / GUJ / RAJ for torrential rains !!!! MAHA can also receive heavy rains due to MP clouding.
What is happening to South India - no news. Leaving apart SE India - which may enter into 4th year of drought... even KAR / KER absolutely no rains.. It just rained few weeks of june and july was absolutely dry in KER.... will monsoon ever revive in south or it is bye for now??
Skymet feedback in today economic times -- seems there predictions went off the track..
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/skymet-may-revise-monsoon-forecast-again-june-july-predictions-off-the-mark/articleshow/48322216.cms
SOURCE IMD WEBSITE
2nd HALF LRF SWM 2015
RELEASED 16.00 HRS
PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi,
3rd August, 2015
Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
India Meteorological Department
Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during the Second Half (August to September) of the
2015 Southwest Monsoon and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
1. Background and details of the 5- Parameter Operational Model
The forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2015
monsoon season has been prepared using a Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model
based on 5 predictors with a model error of 8% of long period average (LPA). The LPA of the
rainfall over the country as whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to
September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall) with
a coefficient of variation (C.V) of 15%.
2. SST conditions in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans
From April to July 2015, El Nino conditions have strengthened from weak to moderate
level. Latest forecast from ESSO-IMD-IITM coupled model indicates 72% probability of El Nino
conditions to become strong during remaining part of the monsoon season. Over the Indian
Ocean, there is 86% probability of current neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions to continue
during the monsoon season.
3. Monsoon Mission Experimental Coupled Dynamical Forecast System
The experimental forecast based on the coupled dynamical model forecasting system
suggest that rainfall during second half (August to September) of the 2015 monsoon season
averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 75% of long period model average.
4. Forecast for the Rainfall During the Second Half of the 2015 Southwest Monsoon
Rainfall and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
(a) The rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season
(August to September) is likely to be below normal (<94% LPA) with a probability of 86%.
(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during second half of the season is
likely to be 84% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
(d) The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 88%
±4% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
That's it Delhi above normal figure vanished. Subdivision of Haryana and punjab also slipped into red zone from blue zone last month.
Raining in parts of NOIDA
sset: Please check the South India Monsoon Situation in latest update...Thanks.
As per my view, Sindh Monsoon remains weak till at least 10th August. Low in Central India will have no effect in Sindh.
Thanks Rajesh Sir For update about Sindh.......
Just did some number crunching for the July rainfall figures.
There were 4 pockets/areas in the country that had normal or above normal rainfall - 1) Gangetic WB, Jharkhand and Odisha towards the east, 2) J&K and HP towards extreme north, 3) Rajasthan, Gujarat and West MP towards the west and 4) the islands. Together these areas cover almost 1.3 mn sqkm (40% of India) and had a surplus of slightly more than 30% in July.
The remaining parts of the country covering almost 2 mn sqkm (60% of India) which includes literally the whole of India from Maharashtra southwards, all the plains from Punjab to Bihar and the NE states had a deficit of slightly more than 40% in July.
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