Friday, August 14, 2015

Posted Friday Night:

Refer to the Map below...
1.Original Position of BB-4 on Thursday Night
2. Track actually taken by BB-4...varying more to the East ..differential track taken by BB-4.

3. Expected track of BB-4 as envisaged in Vagaries



Rains shifting to North-East/North...away from Konkan ?

Posted Thursday 13th Night:

After having flooded Vidharbh (see Nagpur pics below), BB-4 has moved West and lies weak over Central M.P. Will ascend to form a UAC over the M.P. region and will be embedded in Monsoon axis.




Mumbai sees some increase in rain Intensity on Friday 14th. Frequent showers with some very heavy. Average around 30-40 mms. Saturday will see occasional showers, again, some heavy.

Increase in rainfall also in Surat from Friday.

x-------------------------------------x-----------------------------------------x-----------------------------------x

Rajasthan Enjoying a Super Monsoon...

                                              Actual          Normal       Surplus
WEST RAJASTHAN 313.9    172.0        82%    

EAST RAJASTHAN         474.0    390.3       21%

x-----------------------------------x------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------x

Mumbai Water Supplying Lakes Storage ..see Mumbai Page

Nagpur Flooded with BB-4 rains on 13th August: Pics sent by Capt Potey and Akshay





5 comments:

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Rajesh Sir,
Any idea on BB-5 ? When and where it could happen ?

Vishal said...

Sir what do we think abt overall monsoon season for Konkan and esp Mumbai ? So far it has been disappointing. any revival in true sense or has El Nino struck already ?

Muhammad Ali Dall said...

Rajesh sir what will be the forecast for India and Pakistan (specially Sindh Region)regarding remaining monsoon period ?????? any chance of heavy rains???

Nilay Wankawala said...

Only lake levels data posted by vagaries can provide what we call a little relief for mumbai so far as city water supply is concerned. At least 8 to 9 months supply needed at the end of September which hopefully we can have by the end of this season.

rajesh said...

Muhammad Ali...we will wait for another system ..as of now, we can expect rains in North Pakistan and India. Till next 7 days.
vishal: Overall season ? well, we have seen performance so far...and August next 8 days sees no system. But some revival possible in September as we see stronger MJO in our seas.