Thursday, August 20, 2015

Posted Friday 20th Night:

The Monsoon axis remains in the foothills of the Himalyas. The rains will be mainly restricted to the Kashmir-H.P.-Uttarakhand and the U.P. region next few days. Rains will be heavy in the region of Nepal and Sikkim, besides Assam and Meghalaya. 

Flood potential for Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and North Bangladesh seems high.

A W.D. will interact with the axis from Thursday Night thru Saturday. This will bring heavy showers in Northern Pakistan Punjab and Kashmir. Moderate rains with heavy falls in some places in Indian Punjab. Haryana  and West U.P.
Some marginal /nominal increase in showers in South Konkan and Coastal Karnataka this weekend.



As the East coast trough formulates, a Low may form off the Odisha Coast by Wednesday 26th.

Mumbai this Friday/Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy with sunny periods. A few showers on Friday, around 5 -10 mms. Slight increase in rains on Saturday with some showers with thunder, amounting to around 10-15 mms. Sunday will be cloudy with a couple of showers with thunder.
Pune: No meaning full increase seen in Pune this weekend. The usual light drizzles in some parts, with the gauge just managing a few mms.

Kolkata sees the routine getting more regular and will get showers or thunder showers this weekend. The daily rain will be regular and around 20 mm/day.

Delhi NCR: A thundery and showery Saturday and Sunday. Some heavy spells expected in some parts of the NCR.

Chennai: The good rains resume here after a nice July...Likely to see Thunder showers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Some with gusty winds. Daily average may measure around 15-20 mms.
Hyderabad: After rains the last 2 days, Hyderabad will get another shower on Friday as well. But, possible decrease on Saturday and Sunday.
Bangalore too can expect a shower or two on Friday. Saturday may see some heavy showers in many parts of the city.

11 comments:

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Rajesh Sir, is it true that the monsoon will withdraw faster from NW India due to the sinking motion caused by the rapidly intensifying El nino in the coming month?
When do YOU expect the actual withdrawal to commence in NW India?

rajesh said...

Ishan; The normal date that the SWM withdraws from Pakistan is around 1st September...and I would expect around the first week also. The normal then for Rajasthan and parts of west Punjab is 15th September. This also would be around 15th Sept. But, further withdrawal from M.P. and Maharashtra would be delayed into October...thats what i estimate.

Anand Agarwal said...

will the formation of low help kolkata in getting heavy showers....kolkata did not have meaningful rain for the past 20 days...

abizer Kachwala said...

What about rains in north konkan i.e.pen,roha regions RAJESH SIR?this weekend.

sset said...

Very touching news for me after 4-3 years of drought Rayalseema gets rains (first day for this 2015 SWM)!!! But this is only temporary UAC impact will fade soon....Hope we get something like GUJ/RAJ/MP which has now become famous benchmark for others quenching with thirst!!

abizer Kachwala said...

Around wjat date will monsoon withdraw from mumbai and north konkan as you mentioned it to be delayed

Salim Ramani said...

Sir i Want to know about Jabalpur ( EAST M.P ) , till date jabalpur got less then 50% of its normal rain , is any hope for good rain in reaming monsoon season ,
Thanks & Regards

sset said...

MP receiving less rain can't believe this!!!!! May be few place may slip but on whole MP is outstanding see Rohit/Rajesh sir map - it is like "junction platform" all bay lows "trains" need to pass through MP....

rajesh said...

Salim Ramani: For Jabalpur, your figures are wrong. Jabalpur has received 665 mms till 21st, that is 174 mms less of the normal till today. Normal is 839 mms. Jabalpur has received 79 %, i.e. about 20% less. Even the normal for full year is 1310 mms. So 64% received, with 4 and half months to go for the year. Even the map put upin vagaries in previous article shows Jabalpur in green, that is normal.

rajesh said...

abizer: North Konkan gets some increasing thunder showers on Sunday and Monday.
SWm withdrawal will be around 2nd week oct..i feel.

Salim Ramani said...

Rajesh ji Thank you for Reply , Its Raining in jabalpur and neighborhood and hope it will good as per given forecast map .