Sunday, August 02, 2015

All India Monsoon Position District wise up to 3rd August





MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2015 TO 31-7-2015)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-7-2015) 429.8 mm
SEASON +/- -5%
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                             700   mm 4.43
AVERAGE                                890   mm 7.54
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 10.99
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  7.05 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE AUG AVERAGE (262 mm) 8.45 mm
TOP NINE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015)   
WEST RAJASTHAN                                                                                                                         287.8 mm 117%
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL                                                                                                           850.7 mm 48%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH                                                                                                          582.3 mm 47%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH                                                                                                               390.4 mm 42%
JAMMU & KASHMIR                                                                                                                    354.6 mm 38%
EAST RAJASTHAN                                                                                                                          393.6 mm 37%
JHARKHAND                                                                                                                                      612  mm 15%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH                                                                                                   298.7 mm 13%
GUJARAT REGION                                                                                                                         517.7 mm 11%
BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015)
N M M T                                                                                                                                            623.6 mm -25%
KONKAN & GOA                                                                                                                          1362.5 mm -25%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA                                                                                                         288.7 mm -26%
COASTAL KARNATAKA                                                                                                              1492.1 mm -26%
KERALA                                                                                                                                             969.6 mm -30%
BIHAR                                                                                                                                                353.6 mm -31%
EAST U.P.                                                                                                                                          274.4 mm -32%
RAYALASEEMA                                                                                                                              102.5 mm -37%
N. I. KARNATAKA                                                                                                                          128.1 mm -47%
MARATHWADA                                                                                                                             145.8 mm -56%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015)    24 (39%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015)    37 (61%)
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS IN JULY       9 (29%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS IN JULY      22 (71%)
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See Latest Weather Update on Current Weather Page source -IMD

7 comments:

sset said...

Again MP / GUJ / RAJ for torrential rains !!!! MAHA can also receive heavy rains due to MP clouding.

What is happening to South India - no news. Leaving apart SE India - which may enter into 4th year of drought... even KAR / KER absolutely no rains.. It just rained few weeks of june and july was absolutely dry in KER.... will monsoon ever revive in south or it is bye for now??

Skymet feedback in today economic times -- seems there predictions went off the track..

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/skymet-may-revise-monsoon-forecast-again-june-july-predictions-off-the-mark/articleshow/48322216.cms

Nilay Wankawala said...

SOURCE IMD WEBSITE
2nd HALF LRF SWM 2015
RELEASED 16.00 HRS
PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi,
3rd August, 2015
Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
India Meteorological Department
Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during the Second Half (August to September) of the
2015 Southwest Monsoon and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
1. Background and details of the 5- Parameter Operational Model
The forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2015
monsoon season has been prepared using a Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model
based on 5 predictors with a model error of 8% of long period average (LPA). The LPA of the
rainfall over the country as whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to
September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall) with
a coefficient of variation (C.V) of 15%.
2. SST conditions in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans
From April to July 2015, El Nino conditions have strengthened from weak to moderate
level. Latest forecast from ESSO-IMD-IITM coupled model indicates 72% probability of El Nino
conditions to become strong during remaining part of the monsoon season. Over the Indian
Ocean, there is 86% probability of current neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions to continue
during the monsoon season.
3. Monsoon Mission Experimental Coupled Dynamical Forecast System
The experimental forecast based on the coupled dynamical model forecasting system
suggest that rainfall during second half (August to September) of the 2015 monsoon season
averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 75% of long period model average.
4. Forecast for the Rainfall During the Second Half of the 2015 Southwest Monsoon
Rainfall and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
(a) The rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season
(August to September) is likely to be below normal (<94% LPA) with a probability of 86%.
(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during second half of the season is
likely to be 84% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
(d) The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 88%
±4% of LPA as was forecasted in June.

ANOOP RAWAT said...

That's it Delhi above normal figure vanished. Subdivision of Haryana and punjab also slipped into red zone from blue zone last month.

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Raining in parts of NOIDA

rajesh said...

sset: Please check the South India Monsoon Situation in latest update...Thanks.

As per my view, Sindh Monsoon remains weak till at least 10th August. Low in Central India will have no effect in Sindh.

Muhammad Ali Dall said...

Thanks Rajesh Sir For update about Sindh.......

Evewrest said...

Just did some number crunching for the July rainfall figures.
There were 4 pockets/areas in the country that had normal or above normal rainfall - 1) Gangetic WB, Jharkhand and Odisha towards the east, 2) J&K and HP towards extreme north, 3) Rajasthan, Gujarat and West MP towards the west and 4) the islands. Together these areas cover almost 1.3 mn sqkm (40% of India) and had a surplus of slightly more than 30% in July.
The remaining parts of the country covering almost 2 mn sqkm (60% of India) which includes literally the whole of India from Maharashtra southwards, all the plains from Punjab to Bihar and the NE states had a deficit of slightly more than 40% in July.