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El Nino 2015...What's Happening ?
The 2015 El Niño event is well established. The latest weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +1.7 °C and the 30-day SOI value to 2 August is -14.4.
In March 2015 El Niño conditions had developed in the Pacific Ocean, the consensus then was that the event was too weak and too late. But in the past several months, El Niño has strengthened. Surface waters have grown significantly warmer in the central and eastern Pacific, and conditions have become somewhat cooler and drier in the west. By the end of July 2015, scientists at NASA and other agencies started to see some similarities between current conditions and the development of the potent El Niño event of 1997–98.
“We have not seen a signal like this in the tropical Pacific since 1997,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “It’s no sure bet that we will have a strong El Niño, but the signal is getting stronger. What happens in August through October should make or break this event.”
Below you can see an animation of the same data from January 1 through July 31, 2015. Note how pulses of warmer water seem to move from west to east across the Pacific basin. There is a subtle signal in January, and then increasingly stronger pulses in March, May, and July.
Shades of red indicate where the ocean stood above normal sea level because warmer water expands to fill more volume (thermal expansion). Shades of blue show where sea level and temperatures were lower than average (thermal contraction). Normal sea-level conditions appear in white.
From NASA Earth Observatory.
NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using Jason-2 data provided by Akiko Kayashi and Bill Patzert, NASA/JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team. Caption by Mike Carlowicz.
The MJO phase has weakened near Africa, and will propagate Eastwards...Our Sub Continent Seas will see a weak phase from now till at least 20th August.