Thursday, August 06, 2015

The GPM core observatory satellite continued to provide excellent coverage of Soudelor. (Pictures of Friday , but would like Vagarians to see and study these unique images)..See International Page.

Vagaries' Tentative Rain Estimate for next 15 Days...See Current Weather Page

El Nino 2015...What's Happening ?

The 2015 El Niño event is well established. The latest weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +1.7 °C and the 30-day SOI value to 2 August is -14.4.

In March 2015  El Niño conditions had developed in the Pacific Ocean, the consensus then was that the event was too weak and too late. But in the past several months, El Niño has strengthened. Surface waters have grown significantly warmer in the central and eastern Pacific, and conditions have become somewhat cooler and drier in the west. By the end of July 2015, scientists at NASA and other agencies started to see some similarities between current conditions and the development of the potent El Niño event of 1997–98.
“We have not seen a signal like this in the tropical Pacific since 1997,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “It’s no sure bet that we will have a strong El Niño, but the signal is getting stronger. What happens in August through October should make or break this event.”


Below you can see an animation of the same data from January 1 through July 31, 2015. Note how pulses of warmer water seem to move from west to east across the Pacific basin. There is a subtle signal in January, and then increasingly stronger pulses in March, May, and July.
Shades of red indicate where the ocean stood above normal sea level because warmer water expands to fill more volume (thermal expansion). Shades of blue show where sea level and temperatures were lower than average (thermal contraction). Normal sea-level conditions appear in white. 
From NASA Earth Observatory.
NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using Jason-2 data provided by Akiko Kayashi and Bill Patzert, NASA/JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team. Caption by Mike Carlowicz.






The MJO phase has weakened near Africa, and will propagate Eastwards...Our Sub Continent Seas will see a weak phase from now till at least 20th August.



10 comments:

Vinod Desai said...

What does this mean for remaining months of monsoon.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Means no rain now, sir.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Thanks a lot for presenting in such a wonderful manner to explain this phenomenon.

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Iari pusa continues to be wettest in Delhi and crossed 800mm till now in 2015 mark what is more than entire 2014

Nilay Wankawala said...

Sir day by day enrichment of content in vagaries of weather. Current weather hosting city's time and temperature 👍

rajesh said...

What it means for the remaining monsoon season is difficult to say. But, it seems , that as mentioned the August first part is good for extreme North/ North and East Central..after BB-4, which may appear around 12th, rains in Central India...but rest aug is vague. One thing seems sure, monsoon season sees extension in time period beyond end september.

sset said...

extension of SWM ... as we have always seen for past recent 10 years bevound sept-oct-mid nov with cyclone either in Orissa or AS GUJ implies failure of NEM...

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir ,please forecast about pen ,roha regions .whats the position.daily rains fall but not heavy

Evewrest said...

Cherrapunjee has had a very peculiar turnaround this monsoon season. The first 10 days saw a crazy 3027mm of rainfall. But the following 60 days to date have resulted in only 2775mm of rain.
As per the IMD Guwahati website, for the first time in this year's monsoon season, Cherrapunjee has gone below its average to date seasonal rainfall figure.

rajesh said...

sset: please see Comparison of Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu rainfall on Rohit's Page