1. Cross Equatorial Winds: Perfect winds. SE to SW after crossing the Equator...But..In the Bay Branch. See the winds going as per required pattern, and gushing over Northern Sri Lanka at over 35 knts .
Thus Heralding the South West Monsoon advance over complete Sri Lanka in 24 hrs. As the SW winds height is not sufficient for strength, the current will be feeble.
Estimated next 24hrs Upper Winds...
In the Arabian Sea branch, the equator crossing is in shape, but the High pressure in the Arabian Sea diverts the winds towards N, and then re curve Clockwise as NW winds along the West Coast of India.
2. The 200 Jet Streams, now of Prime Importance to guide the Monsoon, are fully "in place", as Easterlies, over Sri Lanka and extreme Southern India around 10N. Getting to Easterly direction below the 15N line in a week's time.
3.OLR and corresponding MJO are gradually setting favourably now.
A Low Pressure (AS-1) is likely to form in the South East Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka Coast around 4th/5th June. Initially at around 1000/1002 mb. It is likely to become Well Marked to 998 mb by 6th/7th June, and track N/NW upto 15N. Then, it seems, it may dis engage itself from the trough, and possibly fizzle out in the Sea.
AS-1 is not likely to effect the Monsoon Onset dates as estimated by Vagaries.
Monsoon to advance into Northern and complete Sri Lanka on 1st June. Likely progress into Kerala and South Lakshdweep by 4th June.
Current Weather Scenario on Current Weather Page...