Wednesday, May 06, 2015

This is what Vagaries had mentioned in MW-3 ...on 2nd May...I re produce: "  A Western Disturbance (M-1) will approach the Northern regions of the sub continent, and will gain strength by the 8th and 9th. Back to back, we may see M-2 around 12th May...if it happens, may lead to sufficiently delay the formations of any Low in the Bay."

Well. its happening and on target date ...M-1 is scheduled to arrive in Northern Pakistan by 7th May, and into the Indian region the next day, 8th May. 
Precipitation in Pak Punjab and Upper Sindh on7th and in NW Indian States of Kashmir, HP, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi on 8th and 9th. Heavy falls in some regions.
And M-2 is also getting into the formation stage to arrive on date !

LWD becomes slightly weaker as a result, and may bring severe thunder storms in places in Coastal AP on 9th.

As requested, the Usual Weekend forecast will be put up on Vagaries on Thursday Night...





Krishnagiri battered, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 07.05.2015

The cyclonic circulation extending upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Comorin area persists.

in mm (min 10 mm)

Kelamangalam, Krishnagiri - 134
Uttamapalayam, Theni - 96
Thalli, Krishnagiri - 80
Kovilpatti, Toothukudi - 58
Pechiparai, Kanyakumari - 54
Palladam, Tiruppur - 54
Palacode, Dharmapuri - 52
Vadipatti, Madurai - 52
Pillur, Coimbatore - 38
Marandahalli, Dharmapuri - 37
Sivagiri, Tirunelveli - 36
Manomboly, Coimbatore - 34
Adirampatnam, Thanjavur - 34
Glenmorgan, Nilgiris - 27
Anamalai, Coimbatore - 27
Thoockanaickenpalayam, Erode - 22
Sholavandan, Madurai - 21
Porthimund, Nilgiris - 20
Udumalpet, Tiruppur - 19
Dharapuram, Tiruppur - 18
Rajapalayam, Virudhunagar - 18
Uthagamandalam, Nilgiris - 15
Tiruvarur, Tiruvarur - 15
Periyar, Theni - 14
Tirupathur, Sivaganga - 14
Sathyamangalam, Erode - 12
Thoppampatti, Dindugul - 12
Gudalur, Theni - 11
Kottur, Tiruvarur - 11
Coimbatore, Coimbatore - 10
Andipatti, Theni - 10
Valparai Taluk Office, Coimbatore - 10
Periyakulam, Theni - 10
Manimutharu, Tirunelveli - 10
Pappireddipatti, Dharmapuri - 10
Pennagaram, Dharmapuri - 10
Coimbatore South, Coimbatore - 10
Parsons Valley, Nilgiris - 10
Puduchatram, Namakkal - 10
Alangayan, Vellore - 10

Non-stop rain in Karnataka continues, ending 8.30 am on 07.05.2015

The wind discontinuity from north Madhya Maharashtra to Tamil Nadu has become less marked.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Donur - 91
Uppinangady - 59
Thandre - 56
Bajathuru - 54
Tripura - 54
Kembhavi - 51
Karpur - 47
Bogguru - 46
K.Honnalagere - 45
Kudurugundi - 44
Arahatholalu - 43
Doddamaralawadi - 42
Kerveshe - 41
Sukravarsanthe - 40
Kukkala - 40
Hunasaghatta - 40
Halkurke - 36
Tyamagondal - 36
Kuppagadde - 35
Halkurike - 35
B.Durga - 35
Mudigere - 33
Sampaje - 33
Kembhavi - 33
Bharmanaikanadurga - 32
Jayamangala - 31
Kanivedasarahalli - 30
Bambarga - 29
Nanjedevanapura - 30
Mani - 30
Chamarajnagar - 30


LWD rains continue in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 06.05.2015

A wind discontinuity at 0.9 km a.s.l. extends from north Madhya Maharashtra across interior Karnataka.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Sonna - 67
Narimogaru - 66
Blale - 60
Koila - 59
Maradinagalapur - 52
Herejamburu - 48
Kuthagodu - 48
Jallapur - 47
Donur - 47
Sorekunte - 47
Belur - 48
Basavapatna - 44
Tattihalla - 43
Hirekerur - 41
Walmi - 40
Kaikini - 38
Mangaluru AP - 36
Masur - 36
Yalishirur - 36
Tigadi - 36
Gunji - 34
Araga - 34
Hanagoadu - 34
Afzalpur - 32
Thirthahalli - 32
Nesargi - 31
Sringeri - 31
Kerveshe - 31
Kanivedasarahalli - 30
Kogar - 30
Pala - 30
Shedbal - 30
Desur - 30
Uppoor - 30
Jagalbet - 30
Katapur - 30
Hulsur - 30

3 comments:

rajesh said...

Raj: Generally, always, the thunder clouds forming inland in the east of Mumbai always move east or NE. It depends on the upper winds (to a small extent) and more on thermals caused by daytime land heating.

abizer: Gujarat rains yesterday were scattered and caused by daytime heating. Due to available moisture, we saw some developments. I might expect rains in Mumbai region next Wed...but will put up on Sunday or Monday.

megh: Surely theses are pre monsoon rains..heavy as the intensity is stregthened by a UAC in the trough along the peninsula..soon i will try and put up a statitical comparison of pre monsoon rains in kerala and monsoon arrival...my study

Rajesh Kumar said...

Some models (GEM) showing depression kind of thing as soon as by 9 th may only.. However I doubt..

Rajesh Kumar said...

Waiting for weekend forecast